OLAYLAR VE YORUMLAR

Yıl 2025, Sayı: 78, 11 - 56, 11.11.2025

Alev Kılıç

Öz

Bu incelemede Mayıs – Ekim 2025 tarihleri döneminde Ermenistan’daki iç durum, dış ilişkiler, Azerbaycan ile barış antlaşması imzalanması süreci ve Türkiye-Ermenistan ilişkileri ve normalleşme süreci ele alınmaktadır.
Ermenistan’da Haziran 2026’da yapılması öngörülen seçimlerin öncesinde iç politikada gerginlik artmış, muhalefetin Başbakan Nikol Paşinyan ve yönetimine yönelik suçlamaları ve karşıtlığı şiddetlenmiştir. Muhalefetin öncülüğünü Diasporanın (özellikle de Taşnak partisinin ABD merkezli lobi örgütü ANCA’nın) ve Rusya’nın desteğini alan Apostolik Kilise üstlenmiş, Paşinyan’ın Kilisenin üst düzey hiyerarşisini hedef alması sonucu Katolikos Karekin II öncülüğünde din, siyasette önemli bir unsur olarak ön plana çıkmıştır.
Azerbaycan ile barış anlaşması sürecinde hızlı ve olumlu gelişmeler yaşanmıştır. Tarafların bir aracı olmadan Abu Dabi’de ilk kez üst düzey ikili ve heyetler arası doğrudan görüşmelerinin ardından, 8 Ağustos’ta Vaşington’da ABD Başkanının katılımıyla yaptıkları görüşme sonrası iddialı bir şekilde barış penceresinin açıldığı ilan edilmiştir. Anlaşmanın önündeki iki engelden biri olan Zengezur koridoru “TRIPP” adı ile giderilmiş, Ermenistan’da anayasa değişikliği konusunda ise Paşinyan seçimlerden sonra bu konuda adım atacağı vadinde bulunmuştur.
Dış ilişkilerde benimsenen “dengeli ve dengeleyici” ve “çok vektörlü” dış politika anlayışı ABD’den Çin’e, AB’den, ŞİÖ’ye Rusya’dan İran’a, Hindistan’a çok geniş bir yelpazeye yayılmış, adeta dış bağlantıların açık artırmaya çıkarıldığı görüntüsünü vermiştir. Türkiye-Ermenistan ilişkilerinde de dikkat çekici gelişmeler, ileri adımlar kaydedilmiştir. Cumhurbaşkanı Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’ın daveti üzerine Paşinyan’ın Türkiye’ye yaptığı resmi ziyaret ile bir ilk yaşanmıştır. Normalleşme süreci özel temsilcileri de ilk kez ikili görüşmelerini aracısız ve kendi başkentlerinden birinde, Erivan’da yapmış, Türk heyeti kapalı olan kara sınırından geçiş yapmıştır. Tarafların ilişkilerin tam normalleşmeyi sağlamaya hazır oldukları kaydedilmiş, zamanlamanın Ermenistan-Azerbaycan barış anlaşmasının imzalanması ile bağlantılı olduğu anlaşılmıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Paşinyan , Mirzoyan , II. Karekin , Taşnaksutyun (EDF) , Diaspora , Erdoğan , Azerbaycan

FACTS COMMENT

Öz

This article covers the period of May-October 2025 of the internal situation in Armenia, the foreign dynamics shaping its international relations, the process of initialing the peace agreement with Azerbaijan and the bilateral relations of Türkiye and Armenia in the light of the process of normalisation of their relations.
Ahead of the elections to be held in June 2026, internal tensions have surged in Armenia, and the accusations and adversity of the opposition towards Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have intensified. The opposition has been led mainly by the Apostolic Church with the backing of Russia and the Diaspora, with the most prominent support coming from the Dashnak party’s US-based lobby organization ANCA. As Pashinyan personally targeted the head of the Church and its hierarchy, Catholicos Karekin II has in return openly taken political initiative and introduced religion as a major force in politics.
Rapid and positive developments have taken place in the peace agreement negotiations process between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Following the high level talks in Abu Dhabi between the parties (one on one and with delegations), their first ever direct talks without an intermediary, the two sides met in Washington D.C. on 8 August with the participation of the US President, where it was pompously declared that the parties had agreed on the peace agenda.
One of the two impediments to concluding the peace agreement, the Zangezur corridor issue, was overcome with the proposed formation of “TRIPP”. As regards the change of Armenia’s constitution, Pashinyan has promised to look into the matter after the elections. In foreign relations, the adopted “balanced and balancing” as well as “multivector” foreign policy lines have provided the justification to expand ties in an extremely broad spectrum from the US to China, EU to SCO, to India, Russia, and Iran, conjuring the perception that foreign relations are being put
on auction.
Noteworthy, substantial developments have taken place in Türkiye-Armenia relations as well. Upon the invitation of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Pashinyan paid an official visit to Türkiye, the first of its kind. Special representatives of the normalization process met for the first time, in their sixth meeting, without an intermediary and in a capital city of their own, resulting
in the Turkish delegation crossing the closed border to reach Yerevan. The two sides acknowledged that they are ready to fully implement the normalization of their relations. It is understood that the timing is geared with the signing of the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Pashinyan , Mirzoyan , Karekin II , Dashnaktsutyun (ARF) , Diaspora , Erdogan

Kaynakça

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• “Deputies of Inter-Parliamentary Committee on Cooperation between RA National Assembly and House of Representatives of Cyprus meet with delegation led by Annita Demetriou”, Aravot, 19 Eylül 2025, https://en.aravot.am/2025/05/19/359853/.
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• “No: 180, 2 Eylül 2025, AGİT Minsk Süreci ve Bağlı Yapılarına Son Verilmesi Kararı Hk.”, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Dışişleri Bakanlığı, Erişim Tarihi: 22 Ekim 2025, https://www.mfa.gov.tr/no_-180_-agit-minsk-sureci-ve-bagli-yapilarina-son-verilmesi-karari-hk.tr.mfa.
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• “President Khachaturyan Congratulates on 35th Anniversary of Declaration of Independence”, ArmenPress, 23 Ağustos 2025, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1227904.
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• “Rubinyan ve Kılıç Hangi Antlaşmalara Vardı?”, HyeTert, 12 Eylül 2025, https://hyetert.org/2025/09/12/rubinyan-ve-kilic-hangi-anlasmalara-vardi/.
• “Russia “Closely Monitoring” Tycoon Samvel Karapetyan’s Case, Says Kremlin”, ArmenPress, 20 Haziran 2025, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1222878.
• “Russia Says Implementation of Armenian-Azerbaijani Initialed Deal 'Remains to be Seen'”, ArmenPress, 8 Eylül 2025, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1229071.
• “Russia Says it Welcomes Armenia-Azerbaijan Direct Talks”, ArmenPress, 10 Temmuz 2025, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1224519.
• “Russia Warns Against Western Hegemony, Reaffirms Support for Armenia”, Aravot, 23 May 2025, https://en.aravot.am/2025/05/23/359958/?s=Russia+Warns+Against+Western+Hegemony%2C+Reaffirms+Support+for+Armenia.
• “Russian Deputy PM: Initialled Azerbaijan-Armenia Agreement to Strengthen Regional Peace”, Caliber, 4 Eylül 2025, https://caliber.az/en/post/russian-deputy-pm-initialled-azerbaijan-armenia-agreement-to-strengthen-regional-peace.
• “Senior Clergyman Under Investigation for Advocating Overthrow of Government”, ArmenPress, 26 Haziran 2025, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1223395.
• “Speaker of Parliament Confident of Landslide Victory in Next Year’s General Election”, ArmenPress, 26 Eylül 2025, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1230649.
• “Speech by the Foreign Minister of Armenia at the Panel Discussion within the Framework of the “Yerevan Dialogue” International Forum”, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia, 26 Mayıs 2025, https://www.mfa.am/en/speeches/2025/05/26/Mirzoyan_YD_Panel/13246.
• “Statement by the Armenian National Committee-International Concerning the Imminent Threat to Armenia’s Syunik Province Amid Regional Escalation”, Horizon Weekly, 16 Haziran 2025, https://horizonweekly.ca/en/statement-by-the-armenian-national-committee-international-concerning-the-imminent-threat-to-armenias-syunik-province-amid-regional-escalation/.
• “Statement from the ARF-Dashnaktsutyun Bureau”, Armenian Weekly, 9 Ağustos 2025, https://armenianweekly.com/2025/08/09/statement-from-the-arf-dashnaktsutyun-bureau-2/.
• “Statement on the Armenia-Azerbaijan Joint Declaration: This is No “Peace Deal””, Lemkin Institute of Genocide Prevention and Human Security, 31 Ağustos 2025, https://www.lemkininstitute.com/statements-new-page/statement-on-the-armenia-azerbaijan-joint-declaration%3A-this-is-no-%E2%80%9Cpeace-deal%E2%80%9D.
• “Supreme Spiritual Council Issued a Statement”, Armenian Apostolic Holy Church Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin, 25 Haziran 2025, https://www.armenianchurch.org/en/news/supreme-spiritual-council-issued-a-statement/11864.
• “Swiss Peace Initiative for Nagorno Karabakh Launched in Bern”, Asbarez, 27 Mayıs 2025, https://asbarez.com/swiss-peace-initiative-for-nagorno-karabakh-launched-in-bern/.
• “TASS: Russian Foreign Ministry Urges Armenia to Respect Religious Sentim ents and Principles of Religious Freedom”, News.am, 27 Haziran 2025, https://news.am/eng/news/891183.html.
• “The Church is Not a Hierarchical Elite, The Church is The People. Everyone Needs a Report to the Armenian People in Respect of Their Responsibilities, Zareh Sinanyan”, Tert, 5 Haziran 2025, https://tert.am/en/news/2025/06/05/zareh-sinanyan/4233293.
• “The Prime Minister Introduces Newly Appointed Minister Arsen Torosyan to the Staff of the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 28 Ağustos 2025, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2025/08/28/Nikol-Pashinyan-28-08/.
• “The Prime Minister Introduces Newly Appointed Minister of Environment Hambardzum Matevosyan”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 17 Temmuz 2025, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2025/07/17/Nikol-Pashinyan-Minister-of-Environment/.
• “The Safe Operation of the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant is a Strategic Priority for the Government of the Republic of Armenia. Prime Minister”, The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, 25 Eylül 2025, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2025/09/25/Nikol-Pashinyan-conference-World-Atomic-Week.
• “TRIPP Project Opens New Export and Import Opportunities for CIS Countries as Well: Pashinyan's Speech at CIS Council Meeting”, First Channel News, 10 October 2025, https://www.1lurer.am/en/2025/10/10/TRIPP-project-opens-new-export-and-import-opportunities-for-CIS-countries-as-well-Pashinyan-s-speec/1395287.
• “‘Today We Are More Sovereign and Independent Than Ever Before,’ Pashinyan’s Address”, ArmenPress, 28 Mayıs 2025, https://armenpress.am/en/article/1220828.
• “Türkiye Ermenileri Patrikliği'nden Paşinyan'ın İstanbul Ziyaretinde Patrikhane'nin Kapalı Olmasıyla İlgili Açıklama”, AGOS, 25 Haziran 2025, https://www.agos.com.tr/tr/yazi/34013/turkiye-ermenileri-patrikligi-nden-pasinyan-in-istanbul-ziyaretinde-patrikhane-nin-kapali-olmasiyla-ilgili-aciklama.
• “Türkiye ve Ermenistan Enerji İş Birliği Görüşüldü”, HyeTert, 26 Haziran 2025, https://hyetert.org/2025/06/27/turkiye-ve-ermenistan-enerji-is-birligi-gorusuldu/.
• “US Delegation Discusses Key Transit Route in Yerevan”, Hürriyet Daily News, 14 Eylül 2025, https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/us-delegation-discusses-key-transit-route-in-yerevan-213573.
• “Washington Agreement Must be Presented to Public – Aram I”, Alpha News, 18 Ağustos 2025, https://alphanews.am/en/washington-agreement-must-be-presented-to-public-aram-i/.