EVALUATION AND ANALYSIS OF RISK FACTORS IN RAILWAY ACCIDENTS IN TÜRKİYE

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 1, 43 - 66, 28.02.2025

Burçin Paçacı , Dr. Hulusi Aydemir , Metin Eser , Serpil Erol , Kürşat Çubuk

https://doi.org/10.20290/estubtdb.1523286

Öz

The main purpose of transportation is to transport passengers and cargo in the shortest possible time, safely and economically. In order to achieve this goal, the safety factor constitutes one of the most basic elements of transportation. In recent years, many countries have made various legal regulations to increase the safety and efficiency of the railway sector and have produced targets and policies to reduce railway accidents and loss of life. In this study, the current situation of the number of accidents, deaths, and types of accidents occurring in Turkish railways was shown, and a statistical comparison was made with the European Union (EU). When we evaluate it from Türkiye’s perspective, it seems that it has some deficiencies in this regard compared to the European Union countries. The main purpose of the study is to examine railway accidents in Türkiye. In this context, the factors that may cause an accident are classified into 58 parameters. AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) from MCDM (Multi Criteria Decision Method) and L-Decision Matrix were used, and risk analysis was carried out by scoring likelihood and severity. Risk analysis was evaluated for the first time in Türkiye by employees of investor companies, investor organizations, and consultancy firms that built railways. In conclusion, the riskiest activity of the sector stakeholders that constitute the infrastructure was determined as uncontrolled entrances of pedestrians to level crossings as a high risk with the L-Decision Matrix method and the B4 risk index score. By using the AHP method, it is obtained uncontrolled pedestrian access to level crossings has a risk importance weight of p = 0.28 (0-1), and uncontrolled access to the road due to closures has a risk importance weight of p = 0.21. (0-1). Suggestions were made to prevent accidents.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Railway, Railway Accident, Risk, L-Decision Matrix, AHP

Kaynakça

• [1] Strategy development directorate, 2053 logistics master plan. Turkish Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure. Available: https://www.uab.gov.tr/uploads/pages/bakanlik-yayinlari/uab-u2053-borsur-a4-180822-ecs.pdf Accessed: 30.09.2022.
• [2] UIC Safety Report 2022. International Union of Railways (UIC). Available: https://safetydb.uic.org/IMG/pdf/uic_safety_report_2022.pdf Accessed: 01.11.2022.
• [3] Directive (EU) 2016/798 on railway safety, Official Journal of the European Union. Available: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A32016L0798 Accessed: 01.11.2022.
• [4] Leitner B. A general model for railway systems risk assessment with the use of railway accident scenarios analysis. Procedia engineering 2017; 187: 150-159.
• [5] Hadj-Mabrouk H. Analysis and prediction of railway accident risks using machine learning. AIMS Electronics and Electrical Engineering 2020; 4(1): 19-46.
• [6] Hu S-R and Wu K.-H. Accident risk analysis and model applications of railway level crossings. In 2008 11th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems. 2008; IEEE.
• [7] Akbayır Ö. Comparison of Railway Fatality Rate Between Turkey and The World. In: Third ISERSE16, 13-15 November 2016, Karabük, Turkey.
• [8] Kıyıldı RK. Developments in open line rail transportation in our country with statistics. NOHU J. Eng. Sci., 2022; 11(4), 990-998.
• [9] lıcalı M. Demiryollarında ihata uygulaması ve dünyadan örneklerin değerlendirilmesi raporu. Istanbul Commerce University. 2016.
• [10] Ghanem O, Xuemei L. An evaluation and efficiency analysis of railways safety: A case study of EU and Turkey. International Journal of Sustainable Economies Management (IJSEM), IGI Global, 2016, 8(1):1-16.
• [11] Bakioğlu G. Evaluation of railway transport safety measures using picture Fuzzy SWARA approach. Railway Engineering 2024; (20), 107-122.
• [12] Özarpa C, Avcı İ, and Kınacı BF. Critical level analysis of subsystems in smart Rail Systems. Railway Engineering 2021; 14: 143-153
• [13] Narlı M, Göçmen E and Derse O. Risk assessment using a novel hybrid method: A case study at the biochemistry department. Hacettepe Journal of Health Administration 2021; 24(3): 571-588.
• [14] Doğan O and Keskin MÖ. Evaluation of risks using L-Type Matrix method and AHP method: A sample application. Journal of Engineering Sciences and Design 2023; 11(4): 1282-1293.
• [15] Annuel statistics 2001-2005. State Railways of the Republic of Turkey (2005). Available: https://static.tcdd.gov.tr/webfiles/userfiles/files/tcddistatistik2005(1).pdf Accessed: 31.09.2022.
• [16] Annuel statistics 2005-2009. State Railways of the Republic of Turkey 2009. Available: https://static.tcdd.gov.tr/webfiles/userfiles/files/20052009ist.pdf Accessed: 31.09.2022.
• [17] Annuel statistics 2009-2013. State Railways of the Republic of Turkey 2013. Available: https://static.tcdd.gov.tr/webfiles/userfiles/files/20092013yillik.pdf Accessed: 31.09.2022.
• [18] Annuel statistics 2013-2017. State Railways of the Republic of Turkey 2017. Available: https://static.tcdd.gov.tr/webfiles/userfiles/files/20132017yillik.pdf Accessed: 31.09.2022.
• [19] Annuel statistics 2017-2021. State Railways of the Republic of Turkey 2021. Available: https://static.tcdd.gov.tr/webfiles/userfiles/files/istrapor/ist20172021.pdf Accessed: 31.09.2022.
• [20] Transportation and communications statistical tables. TUIK. Available: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=ulastirma-ve-haberlesme-112 Accessed: 09.09.2022.
• [21] European Commission – Statistical Pocketbook, European Commission. Available: https://transport.ec.europa.eu/facts-funding/studies-data/eu-transport-figures-statistical- pocketbook/statistical-pocketbook-2022_en Accessed: 2022.
• [22] Rail accidents by type of accident. Eurostat. Available: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tran_sf_railac/default/table?lang=en Accessed:30.09.2022.
• [23] Railway Transport (t-rail), Eurostat (t.y.). Available: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database Accessed:30.09.2022.
• [24] Rail accidents victims by type of accident and category of persons involved. Eurostat. Available: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/-explore/all/transp?lang=mt&display=card&sort=category&extractionId=MIGR_ASYAPPCTZM Accessed: 01.10.2022.
• [25] Analysis and mitigation of derailment, assessment and commercial impact. D-rail 2013. Available: https://d-rail-project.eu/IMG/pdf/DR-D32-F3-Analysis_mitigation_derailment-assessment_commercial_impact.pdf
• [26] Eser M. Statistical comparison and risk assesment of railway accidents in Turkey. MSc, Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey, 2023.
• [27] Çetinbaş M. Excel applications on multi-criteria decision making methods. Pamukkale University Journal of Business Research 2018; 4(1): 12-29.
• [28] Liberatore MJ and Nydick RL, An analytic hierarchy approach for evaluating product formulations. Computer aided formulation: A manual for implementation 1990; 179-94.
• [29] Kılıç İ. Bulanık-analitik hiyerarşi sürecini kullanarak İstanbul Boğazı’nda deniz kazaları risk analizi. Msc, Istanbul Technical University, İstanbul, Turkey, 2015.
• [30] Arslan Ö, Turan O. Analytical investigation of marine casualties at the Strait of Istanbul with SWOT–AHP method. Maritime Policy & Management 2009; 36(2):131-145.
• [31] Bayazıt G. Safety assessment at railway level crossings: Developing a sample model for Turkey. MSc, Istanbul Technical University, İstanbul, Turkey, 2019.
• [32] Bureıka G, Bekıntıs G, Lıudvınavıčıus L, Vaıčıūnas G. Applying analytic hierarchy process to assess traffic safety riskof railway infrastructure. Eksploatacja Niezawodnosc, Maintenance and Reliability 2013; 15 (4): 376–383.
• [33] Liu C, Yang S, Cui Y, Yang Y. An improved risk assessment method based on a comprehensive weighting algorithm in railway signaling safety analysis. Safety Science 2020; 128:104768.
• [34] Uray K. Determination of Possible Effects of Risks Using Matrix Method in Railway Maintenance Works. Journal of Disaster and Risk 2021; 4(2): 121-134.
• [35] Damat A and Utlu Z, Occupational Health And Safety Applicatıons In Istanbul Metro Stations. Railway Engineering 2018; (8): 52-69.
• [36] Bayraktar H, Sahtiyancı E, Kuru A. Determination of The Possible Effects of Non-Structural Risks Originating From Earthquake in Schools By Using Risk Assessment Matrix Method. Journal of Disaster and Risk 2019; 2(2): 128-152.
• [37] Saaty TL, Tran LT. On the invalidity of fuzzifying numerical judgments in the analytic hierarchy process. Mathematical and Computer Modelling 2007; (46): 962-975.
• [38] Paçacı B, Erol S and Çubuk MK. AHP Application for logistics center location selection according to criteria. Bitlis Eren University Journal of Science 2022; 11(4): 943-952.
• [39] Arıbaş M and Özcan U. Evaluation of Academic Research Projects Using AHP and TOPSIS Methods. Journal of Polytechnic 2016; 19 (2) : 163-173.
• [40] Özkılıç Ö. Occupational health and safety, management systems and risk assessment methodologies. Ministry of Labor and Social Security Labor Inspection Board Istanbul Group Presidency. Available: http://egitim.druz.com.tr/upload/docs/26042012105841_vAq1THf-6-105841_risk-analizi-ozlem-ozkilic-kitabi.pdf Accessed: 08.01.2022.
• [41] TCDD, The State Railways of the Republic of Türkiye Accident investigation and investigation manuals. https://www.tcdd.gov.tr/kurumsal/yonergeler Accessed: 09.11.2023.
• [42] TCDD, The State Railways of the Republic of Türkiye. Available: https://akademi.tcdd.gov.tr/Egitim Accessed: 09.05.2024.
• [43] Official Railway Accident Investigation Reports, Transport Safety Investigation Center of Türkiye. Available: https://ulasimemniyeti.uab.gov.tr/demiryolu Accessed: 09.05.2022.