Foreign Currency Reserve Requirement Implementation and Exchange Rate Dynamics: Empirical Evidence from Türkiye

Öz

This study investigates the impact of foreign currency reserve requirement implementation on exchange rate dynamics in Türkiye during the period 2011Q1–2023Q4. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, the effects of foreign exchange reserve requirements implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) on the euro and US dollar exchange rates are estimated separately. Empirical findings indicate that changes in reserve requirements do not have a statistically significant short-term impact on exchange rates, but there is a significant and positive long-term relationship. That is, higher foreign exchange reserve requirements are associated with a depreciation of the Turkish Lira against the Euro and the Dollar over time. These results suggest that reserve requirements may not offer quick solutions to exchange rate volatility, but they can serve as complementary tools to interest rate policy in shaping long-term exchange rate dynamics. The findings contribute to the broader macroeconomic prudential policy literature by highlighting the conditional effectiveness of reserve requirements in emerging markets.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Foreign Currency Reserve Requirements
• Exchange Rate
• ARDL

Yabancı Para Zorunlu Karşılık Uygulaması ve Döviz Kuru Dinamikleri: Türkiye'den Ampirik Kanıtlar

Öz

Bu çalışmada, 2011Q1–2023Q4 döneminde Türkiye'de yabancı para zorunlu karşılık uygulamasının döviz kuru dinamikleri üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikmeli (ARDL) model kullanılarak, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) tarafından uygulanan döviz rezerv gereksinimlerinin Euro ve ABD Doları döviz kurları üzerindeki etkileri ayrı ayrı tahmin edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgular, rezerv gereksinimlerindeki değişikliklerin döviz kurları üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir kısa vadeli etkiye sahip olmadığını, ancak uzun vadeli anlamlı ve pozitif bir ilişki olduğunu göstermektedir. Yani, daha yüksek döviz rezerv gereksinimleri, Türk Lirası'nın Euro ve Dolar karşısında zaman içinde değer kaybetmesiyle ilişkilidir. Bu sonuçlar, rezerv gereksinimlerinin döviz kuru oynaklığına hızlı çözümler sunmayabileceğini, ancak uzun vadeli döviz dinamiklerini şekillendirmede faiz oranı politikasına tamamlayıcı araçlar olarak hizmet edebileceğini göstermektedir. Bulgular, gelişmekte olan piyasalarda rezerv gereksinimlerinin koşullu etkinliğini vurgulayarak daha geniş makroekonomik ihtiyati politika literatürüne katkıda bulunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yabancı Para Zorunlu Karşılık
• Döviz Kuru
• ARDL

Kaynakça

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