YUNANİSTAN ÖRNEĞİNDE KREDİ NOTLARI İLE ÜLKE RİSKLERİ ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN İNCELENMESİ: POLİTİK VE EKONOMİK FAKTÖRLERDEN ANALİZLER

Öz

Kredi derecelendirme kuruluşlarının ulusların kredi değerliliğini ve kırılganlık düzeyini değerlendirmedeki rolü, yalnızca yerli ve yabancı yatırımcıların portföylerini ayarlamaları açısından değil, aynı zamanda ekonomistler ve politika yapıcılar için de siyasi ve ekonomik istikrarsızlıklar gibi ülkenin risklerini istikrara kavuşturmanın daha iyi yollarını bulmaları açısından önemlidir. Bu açıklamadan yola çıkarak bu çalışma, kredi notu duyuruları ile ekonomik ve politik bazlı ülke riskleri arasındaki nedensel ilişkiyi Yunanistan örneğinde 1999'dan 2018'e kadar olan aylık verileri kapsayan 20 yıllık dönemde incelemektedir. Bildiğim kadarıyla, bu ilişkiyi risk perspektifinden yürüten ilk çalışma girişimidir; zira makale ampirik analizler için riske dayalı verileri dikkate almaktadır. Ampirik bulgular, Yunanistan'da ülke kredi notları ile ekonomik risk arasında iki yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğunu, siyasi riskin ise ülke kredi notlarında tek yönlü nedensellik etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Ampirik sonuçlar, gerekirse daha etkili ve sürdürülebilir hükümet ve ekonomik kararların uygulanmasına yönelik politika oluşturma kararları açısından hayati önem taşıdığından, Yunanistan'daki hem ekonomistlere hem de politika yapıcılara özel görüşler sunmakla bitiriyoruz.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ekonomik risk; politik risk; ülke kredi dereceleri; nedensellik; Yunanistan

EXAMINING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CREDIT RATINGS AND COUNTRY RISKS IN GREECE: INSIGHTS FROM POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS

Öz

The role of credit rating agencies in evaluating the creditworthiness and assessing the level of vulnerabilities of nations is essential not only for domestic and foreign investors to calibrate their portfolios but also for economists and policymakers to find better ways to stabilize the nation's risks, such as political and economic vulnerabilities. Based on this explanation, this paper examines the causal relationship between credit rating announcements and economic- and political-based country risks for the case of Greece in the 20 years, covering monthly data from 1999 to 2018. As far as current research is concerned, this is the initial attempt to investigate this nexus from a risk perspective, as the paper considers risk-based data for the empirical analyses. The empirical results demonstrate a unidirectional causal influence of political risk on sovereign credit risk in Greece, but a two-way causal link between sovereign credit risk and economic risk. We end by providing specific suggestions and opinions to both economists and policymakers in Greece, as the empirical results are crucial for policymaking decisions to be implemented, if necessary, to be more effective and sustainable governmental and economic decisions.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Economic risk
• political risk
• sovereign credit ratings; causality; Greece

Kaynakça

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