Food Price, Uncertainty and Energy Price: Global Evidence

Öz

The present study aims to capture the effect of energy price, economic policy uncertainty, and dollar price on global food price using Gregory-Hansen cointegration test and Markow switching regression approaches which take into account the possible regime changes. The period of study was accepted as 1980M1 to 2020M9 and monthly data sets were used for all variables. The findings clearly reveal that the energy price index and global economic policy uncertainty have a positive effect on food prices while upwards movement in the dollar index has a negative effect on food prices. While the weak dollar increases the demand level, the motivation of the producers to produce decreases, and thus food prices increase. In times of high uncertainty, those involved in agricultural production wait until they have more information, and this behavior, to say the least, reduces production growth and increases volatility in prices. Energy prices have a direct effect on food prices via the supply channel and an indirect effect through the demand channel. The global agricultural system is in need of another agricultural revolution. Energy-efficient applications and technologies should be developed and disseminated. The subsidy and export restriction policies should be addressed in a way that at most uncertain times, food trade and pricing are predictable and secure. Governments should formulate cost-effective policies to deal with price transmission. Food security is a global problem and needs to be handled globally.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Food Price
• Energy Price
• Uncertainty
• Markov Switching Regression

Kaynakça

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