ENERJİ GÜVENLİĞİNİN TÜRK DIŞ POLİTİKASI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

Yıl 2023, Cilt: XIV Sayı: I, 88 - 103, 28.09.2023

Emirhan Göral

Öz

Çok kutuplu sisteme dönüş orta ölçekli güçlerin güvenlik anlayışlarını yeniden şekillendirmesini gerekli kılmaktadır. Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı’nın akabinde yaşanan enerji krizi, uluslararası alandaki aktörlerin enerji güvenliğinin önemini bir kez daha ortaya koymuştur. Devletlerin enerji gereksinimlerinin artması da enerji kaynaklarını dış politikanın bir unsuru haline dönüştürmektedir. Önde gelen küresel bir enerji tedarikçisi olan Rusya, uluslararası alanda enerji kaynaklarını araçsallaştırmaktadır. Avrupa Birliği (AB) üyesi ülkelerle Rusya arasındaki güncel enerji krizi, Rusya’nın enerjiyi bir silah olarak kullanma tutumunu teyit eder niteliktedir. Türkiye ise, bu enerji çatışmasının taraflarıyla derin ve karmaşık ilişkilere sahiptir ve Türkiye’nin dış politika kararları kaçınılmaz olarak enerji güvenliği kaygılarından etkilenmektedir. Türkiye bir yandan NATO üyesi ve AB’ye aday ülke konumundadır. Diğer yandan enerji tedarikinde Rusya’ya önemli ölçüde bağımlı durumdadır. Bu çalışma Türkiye’nin enerji güvenliği kaygıları ile dış politika tercihleri arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koymayı amaçlamakta ve enerji güvenliğinin Türk dış politikasında yeni bir karar dinamiği olarak geliştiğini ileri sürmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Enerji güvenliği, Türk Dış Politikası, Rusya-Ukrayna Savaşı, Avrupa Birliği, çok kutupluluk

THE IMPACT OF ENERGY SECURITY ON TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY

Öz

The emerging multi-polarity requires middle powers to redefine their security understanding. The current energy crisis in Europe after the Russia-Ukraine war put forth the importance of energy security for any international actor. The increased energy requirement of states grows steadily and energy resources have become an important element of foreign policy. Russia, as one of the leading global energy suppliers, has utilized its energy resources as a political tool in the international arena. The recent energy dispute between Russia and the European Union (EU) members confirms Russia's tendency to use energy as a weapon. Turkey has deep and complicated relations with both parties of this energy conflict and Turkey's foreign policy decisions are unavoidably affected by energy security concerns. On the one hand Turkey is a NATO member and a candidate country for the EU. On the other hand, Turkey is highly dependent on Russian energy resources. This paper aims to evaluate the interaction between the energy security concerns of Turkey and its foreign policy choices and argues that energy security has become a new dynamic for the decision-making process of Turkish foreign policy.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Energy security, Turkish Foreign Policy, Russia-Ukraine War, European Union, multipolarity.

Kaynakça

• Abay, E. G. (2022, 31 December), “Putin allows Western countries to pay gas debts in foreign currencies”. Anadolu Agency, retrieved from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/putin-allows-western-countries-to-pay-gas-debts-in-foreign-currencies/2776603#
• Abu-Nasr, Donna and Arkhipov, Ilya (2015). “Russia Shuns No-Fly Zone for Syria as Clerics Urge Reprisals”, Bloomberg Business, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-06/russia-reject-no-fly-zone-bid-as-warplanes-hit-targets-in-syria Al_Sowayegh, A. (2023), Arab Petro-Politics, Taylor & Francis. E-book, ISBN 9781003387596
• Barnes, Juilen, et-al. (2015). “Turkey Says Russian Fighter Jet Violated Its Airspace with Syria”. The Wall Street Journal, http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkey-says-russian-fighter-jet-violated-its-airspace-with-syria-1444040488
• Bruegel (2023), “European Natural Gas Imports”, retrieved from https://www.bruegel.org/dataset/european-natural-gas-imports
• Cagaptay, Soner and Tabler, Andrew J. (2014). “Turkey Calls for Safe Havens and No-Fly Zones in Syria: Five Things You Need to Know”, The Washington Institute, http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/turkey-calls-for-safe-havens-and-no-fly-zones-in-syria-five-things-you-need
• Chen, Y., J. Jiang, L. Wang and R. Wang (2023). “Impact assessment of energy sanctions in geo-conflict: Russian–Ukrainian war”. Energy Reports,
• Colgan, J. D. (2013). Petro-aggression: when oil causes war. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Connoly, K. (2022, July 8). “Germany to reactivate coal power plants as Russia curbs gas flow”, The Guardian, retrieved from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/08/germany-reactivate-coal-power-plants-russia-curbs-gas-flow.
• Destatis (2022). “Facts on trade with Russia”, Destatis Statistisches Bundesamt, Press release No. N 010 of 24 February 2022, retrieved from: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2022/02/PE22_N010_51.html
• Dupakova, Martina (2014). “Sefcovic tells MEPs he has a vision for EU’s Energy Union”. Euractiv. http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/sefcovic-tells-meps-he-has-vision-eus-energy-union-309359
• Evans, Stephen (2014). “Germany and Russia's contradictory relationship”. BBC, http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28423733
• EU sanctions against Russia over Ukraine crisis (2015). European Union Newsroom, http://europa.eu/newsroom/highlights/special-coverage/eu_sanctions/index_en.htm
• European Commission (2022, 18 May) Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee, and the Committee of the Regions, COM(2022) 230 final, Brussels.
• European Commission (2023, May 9). “Sanctions on energy”, retrieved from: https://eu-solidarity-ukraine.ec.europa.eu/eu-sanctions-against-russia-following-invasion-ukraine/sanctions-energy_en
• European Council (2013). “European Union – Facts Sheet – EU Russia Summit”, 3-4 June 2013, Yekaterinburg, retrieved from: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/EN/foraff/137354.pdf
• European Council (2023, June 29). “EU restrictive measures against Russia over Ukraine (since 2014)”, retrieved from: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/
• Göral, E. (2015) “A Critique of European Neighbourhood Policy: The Case of Russian Intervention in Ukraine”, Marmara Journal of European Studies, 23(1): pp.159-177.
• Grigas, Agnia (2014). The EU’s unresolved issue of the Russian embargo against Lithuania’s oil refinery, http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/eus-unsolved-issue-russian-embargo-against-lithuanias-oil-refinery-309661
• Higgins, M.S. (1974), Wınston S. Churchıll's Legacy to the Royal Navy, 1911-1915, Naval War College Review, 27(3), pp.67-77.
• Houtari, Jussi (2011). “Energy policy and (energy security) as a part of Russian foreign policy”, Nordia Geographical Publications, 40(4), 121–132.
• IEA (2023, May 12). “Germany”, International Energy Agency, retrieved from: https://www.iea.org/countries/germany
• Jordan, C. and S. Husbands (2023, May 5). “Europe’s Not Buying: The Impact of Lost Gas Markets for Gazprom and Russia”. The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, retrieved from: https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/europes-not-buying-impact-lost-gas-markets-gazprom-and-russia
• Khudaykulova, M., H. Yuanqiong and A. Khudaykulov (2022). “Economic Consequences and Implications of the Ukraine-Russia War”. International Journal of Management Science and Business Administration, 8(4), pp. 44-52.
• Knight, M. and J. Pennington, (2022, December 25), “Russia ready to resume gas supply to Europe via Yamal-Europe gas pipeline”, CNN, Retrieved from https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/25/europe/russia-yamal-europe-gas-pipeline/index.html
• Koutsokosta, E. (2023, March 28). “Russian gas flowing through Ukraine can only stop when EU countries stop imports: Naftogaz CEO”, Euronews, retrieved from https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/03/28/russian-gas-flowing-through-ukraine-can-only-stop-when-eu-countries-stop-imports-naftogaz-
• Kurk, K. (2019, May 7), “The Crimean Factor: How the European Union Reacted to Russia’s Annexation of Crimea”. The Warsaw Institute Review, retrieved from: https://warsawinstitute.org/crimean-factor-european-union-reacted-russias-annexation-crimea/
• Makszimov, V. (2022, June 1), “European Commission to ‘investigate’ Hungary’s discriminatory petrol price rules”, Euroactiv, retrieved from: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/european-commission-to-investigate-hungarys-discriminatory-petrol-price-rules/
• Miskimmon, Alister (2012). “German Foreign Policy and the Libya Crisis”, German Politics, 21(4), 392-410.
• O’Donnell, J. (2022, December 19), “Analysis: EU unity over Russia sanctions falters as Europe's economy wilts”, Reuters, retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/eu-unity-over-russia-sanctions-falters-europes-economy-wilts-2022-12-16/
• Oil and Gas Security (2013), International Energy Agency, https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/2013_Turkey_Country_Chapterfinal_with_last_page.pdf
• Oltermann, P. (2022, February 22). “Germany halts Nord Stream 2 approval over Russian recognition of Ukraine ‘republics’”, The Guardian, retrieved from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/22/germany-halts-nord-stream-2-approval-over-russian-recognition-of-ukraine-republics
• Ozsoy, O. (2022, November 22). “ Türkiye in talks with Russia for construction of 2nd nuclear power plant”. Anadolu Agency, retrieved from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/electricity/turkiye-in-talks-with-russia-for-construction-of-2nd-nuclear-power-plant/36937
• Partington, R. (2023, June 8), "Eurozone sinks into recession as cost of living crisis takes a toll", The Guardian, retrieved from: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jun/08/eurozone-sinks-into-recession-as-cost-of-living-crisis-takes-toll
• Parfitt, T. (2007, January 9), “Belarus cuts off Russian pipeline in bitter gas war”, The Guardian, retrieved from: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2007/jan/09/oilandpetrol.russia
• Parfitt, T. (2009, January 3), “Ukraine accused of stealing Russian gas as fuel flow declines”, The Guardian, retrieved from: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/jan/03/russia-ukraine-gas-supplies-gazprom
• Porter, Charlene (2012), ‘Energy Security a U.S. Foreign Policy Priority, Clinton Says’, IPP Digital, retrieved from: http://iipdigital.usembassy.gov/st/english/article/2012/10/20121018137687.html#axzz3rJicibAd
• Project (2023), The Turkstream Pipeline, retrieved from: https://turkstream.info/project/
• Rzayeva, Gulmira (2015). The Outlook for Azerbaijani Gas Supplies to Europe: Challenges and Perspectives. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, http://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/NG-97.pdfs
• Sarikaya, Muhrrem (2014). Turkey benefits from Western embargo on Russia, Al Monitor, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2014/11/turkey-russia-embargo-ukraine-western.html
• Siemplenski Lefort, J. (2022, June 14). “Ukraine Economic Shock”, European Investment Bank, retrieved from: https://www.eib.org/en/stories/ukraine-trade-inflation
• Sofuoğlu, M. (2022). “Why Russia wants Türkiye to be a gas hub for Europe”, TRTWORLD, retrieved from: https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/why-russia-wants-t%C3%BCrkiye-to-be-a-gas-hub-for-europe-62131
• Sommerlad, J. (2022, May 4). “Which countries are most dependent on Russian gas imports?”. Independent, retrieved from: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-gas-oil-poland-eu-countries-b2071249.html
• Stubbs, J. and D. Solovyov (2016, June 27), “Kremlin says Turkey apologized for shooting down Russian jet”, Reuters, retrieved from: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-turkey-jet-idUSKCN0ZD1PR
• Stanislav, Joseph A. (2009). “Power Play — Resource nationalism, the global scramble for energy, and the need for mutual interdependence”, Deloitte. https://www.deloitte.com/assets/DcomUnitedStates/Local%20Assets/Documents/us_er_PowerPlayResourceNationalism_theGlobalScramble_forEnergyWEB_240209.pdf
• Stern, J. (2006). “The Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis of January 2006”. Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, retrieved from: https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/Jan2006-RussiaUkraineGasCrisis-JonathanStern.pdf
• Syria conflict: Russia violation of Turkish airspace 'no accident' (2015). BBC, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34453739
• The fait accompli referendum held in Crimea is unacceptable”unacceptable (2015). Republic of Turkey, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, http://www.mfa.gov.tr/foreign-minister-davutoglu-_the-fait-accompli-referendum-held-in-crimea-is-unacceptable.en.mfa
• Traynor, Ian and Neslen, Arthur (2015). “Ambitious EU blueprint for energy union to loosen Russian grip on gas”, The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/24/eu-blueprint-energy-union-russian-gas-gazprom-maros-sefcovic
• Turkey (2015). U.S. Energy Information Administration, http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis_includes/countries_long/Turkey/turkey.pdf
• Ukraine-/Russia-related Sanctions (2015). US Department of the Treasury, http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Pages/ukraine.aspx