Türkiye’de Gelir Vergisinin Gelir Dağılımı Üzerindeki̇ Etkisi̇: Dinamik ARDL Simülasyonlarından Kanıtlar

Öz

Yoksulluk ve çarpık gelir dağılımı, az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan birçok ülkenin temel sosyoekonomik sorunlarından biridir. Bu ülkeler için durumu daha da kötüleştiren bir diğer faktör ise gelir dağılımındaki adaletsizlik ve gelir grupları arasında büyük farkların bulunmasıdır. Bu durumda toplumun büyük bir kesimi toplam gelirden düşük bir pay alırken, toplam gelirin büyük bir kısmı küçük bir azınlığın eline geçmektedir. Hükümetlerin temel görevlerinden biri toplumda gelir dağılımında adaleti sağlamaktır ve bu amaçla kullanabilecekleri temel araçlardan biri de gelir vergisi politikasıdır. Etkin ve adil bir gelir vergisi politikası, kişileri gelirleri ile doğru orantılı olarak vergilendirecek, böylece servetin belli bir kesimde yoğunlaşmasını önleyecek ve yoksulların korunmasına yardımcı olabilecektir. Vergilerin gelir dağılımı üzerindeki etkisini konu alan bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki durum zaman serisi yöntemleri kullanılarak araştırılmıştır. Dinamik ARDL modeline dayalı analizden elde edilen bulgular, Türkiye'de gelir vergisinin uzun dönemde gelir dağılımını etkilemediğini ancak kısa dönemde anlamlı ancak pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Diğer bir deyişle, Türkiye'de gelir vergisi politikası kısa vadede gelir dağılımındaki bozukluğu artırıcı bir etkiye sahiptir ve yoksulların aleyhine bir duruma neden olmaktadır. Bu itibarla, vergi oranları gelir dilimlerine göre yeniden düzenlenerek düzeltici önlemler alınması faydalı olacaktır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Gelir dağılımı
• gelir vergisi
• Theil
• dinamik ARDL simülasyonları

Effect of Income Tax on Income Distribution in Türkiye: Evidence from Dynamic ARDL Simulations

Öz

Poverty and distorted income distribution are one of the main socioeconomic problems of many underdeveloped and developing countries. Another factor that worsens the situation for these countries is the inequality in income distribution and the existence of large differences between income groups. In this case, while a large segment of society has a low share in the total income, a large portion of the total income falls into the hands of a small minority. One of the main duties of governments is to ensure justice in income distribution in society, and one of the main instruments they can use for this purpose is income tax policy. An effective and fair income tax policy will tax people in direct proportion to their income, thus preventing the concentration of wealth in a certain segment and helping to protect the poor. In this study, which is about the impact of taxes on income distribution, the situation in Turkey is investigated using time series methods. Findings obtained from the analysis based on the dynamic ARDL model reveal that income tax in Turkey does not affect income distribution in the long term but has a significant but positive effect in the short term. In other words, income tax policy in Turkey has an increasing impact on income distribution disorder in the short term, causing a situation that is detrimental to the poor. Accordingly, it would be useful to take corrective measures by rearranging tax rates according to income brackets.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Income distribution
• income tax
• Theil’s T statistics
• dynamic ARDL simulations

Kaynakça

1. Abbasi, K. R., Adedoyin, F. F., Abbas, J., and Hussain, K. (2021). The Impact of Energy Depletion and Renewable Energy on CO2 Emissions in Thailand: Fresh Evidence from the Novel Dynamic ARDL Simulation, Renewable Energy, 177: 1408-1420.
2. Akalın, G. (2021). Do Income and Wealth Taxes Affect Income Distribution in Turkey? Anemon: Journal of Social Sciences of Mus Alparslan University, 9 (1): 249–255. (In Turkish)
3. Akbulut, E. (2021). Inflation, Interest Rate, Taxes and Income Distribution Relationship in Turkey: Empiric Analysis, The International Journal of Economic and Social Research, 17 (1): 147169. (In Turkish)
4. Ay, H. and Haydanlı, M. L. (2018). The Analysis of Tax Burden and Income Distribution in Turkey during the Republican Era, Sosyoekonomi, 26 (38): 53-70. (In Turkish)
5. Bayar, A. A., Günçavdı, Ö., and Levent, H. (2021). The Effects of Taxes on Income Distribution in Turkey, Istanbul Institute for Political Research, Policy Report, No. 2021-02, İstanbul. (In Turkish)
6. Biswas, S., Chakraborty, I., and Hai, R. (2017). Income Inequality, Tax Policy, and Economic Growth, The Economic Journal, 127 (May): 688–727.
7. Bükey, A. M. and Çetin, B. I. (2017). The Analysis of the Factors Influencing Income Distribution by the Least Squares Method in Turkey, Research Journal of Public Finance, 3 (1): 103-117. (In Turkish)
8. Claus, I., Martinez-Vazquez, J., and Vulovic, V. (2012). Government fiscal policies and redistribution in Asian countries. Andrew Young School of policy studies research paper series no. 12–23.

9. Cornia, G. A. (2014). Inequality Trends and Their Determinants: Latin America over the Period 1990–2010, In: Falling Inequality in Latin America: Policy Changes and Lessons, Ed: G. A. Cornia, Oxford University Press, pp. 23-48.
10. Dehshiri, H. M., Pajouyan, J., Hosseini, S., and Ghaffari, F. (2020). Analyzing the Impact of Fiscal Policy (Income Tax) on Income Distribution in Iran by Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach, Journal of Money and Economy, 15 (2): 221-234.
11. Demirgil, B. (2018). The Effect of Taxes on Income Distribution: An Empirical Study, C.U. Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 19 (2): 118-131. (In Turkish)
12. Engel, E. M. R. A., Galetovic, A., and Raddatz, C. E. (1999). Taxes and income distribution in Chile: some unpleasant redistributive arithmetic, Journal of Development Economics, 59, 155–192.
13. Galbraith, J. K. and Hale, T. (2007). Between-Sector Earnings Inequality in the United States, The University of Texas Inequality Project (UTIP), Working Paper 43, Austin, Texas.
14. Geyik, O. (2021). Personal Income Tax and Income Distribution: An Empirical Study on Turkey (1990-2019), Vergi Sorunları Dergisi, 44 (395): 61-72. (In Turkish)
15. Gini, C. (1921). Measurement of Inequality and Incomes, The Economic Journal, 31, 124–126.
16. Gupta, S. and Jalles, J. T. (2022). Do tax reforms affect income distribution? Evidence from developing countries, Economic Modelling, 110, 105804.
17. Günel, T. (2019). The Effects of Indirect and Direct Taxes on Income Distribution in Turkey: An Econometric Application, Journal of Yasar University, 14 (55): 277-287. (In Turkish)
18. Gwartney and Lawson (2006). The Impact of Tax Policy on Economic Growth, Income Distribution, and Allocation of Taxes, Southern Methodist University, Business Law Research No. 7/2006.
19. Higgins, S. and Lustig, N. (2016). Can a Poverty-reducing and Progressive Tax and Transfer System Hurt the Poor? Journal of Development Economics. 122, 63–75.
20. Hümbelin, O. and Farys, R. (2018). Income Redistribution through Taxation: How Deductions Undermine the Effect of Taxes, Journal of Income Distribution, 26(1): 1-35.
21. Hyun, J. K. and Lim, B. (2005). The Financial Crisis and Income Distribution in Korea: The Role of Income Tax Policy, The Journal of The Korean Economy, 6(1): 51-65.
22. Jordan, S. and Philips, A. Q. (2018). Cointegration Testing and Dynamic Simulations of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Models. STATA Journal, 18 (4): 902–923.
23. Joumard, I, Pisu, M, and Bloch, D. (2013). Tackling Income Inequality: The Role of Taxes and Transfers, OECD Journal: Economic Studies, 2012(1), 37-69.
24. Kawachi, I. and Subramanian, S. V. (2014). Income Inequality, In: Social Epidemiology, Eds.: L. F. Berkman, I. Kawachi and M. M. Glymour, Oxford University Press, New York, pp. 126-152.
25. Kubar Y. (2011). Income Distribution as An Economic Policy Objectives: The Turkish Case (1994-2007) Analysis, K.S.U. Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 1(2): 227-246. (In Turkish)
26. Malla, M.H. and Pathranarakul, P. (2022). Fiscal policy and income inequality: the critical role of institutional capacity, Economies, 10(5): 1-16.
27. Padhan, H., Haouas, I., Hammoudeh, S. and Tiwari, A.K. (2022), Nonlinear analysis of government expenditure and tax rate on income inequality in India, Journal of Public Affairs, 22(3), e2518.
28. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3): 289-326.
29. Poterba, J. M. (2007). Income Inequality and Income Taxation, Journal of Policy Modelling, 29: 623–633.
30. Teyyare, E. and Sayaner, K. (2018). Analysis of Income Inequality in Terms of Fiscal Policy Instruments and Institutional Quality Factors in Turkey and Suggested Solutions, Bingöl University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 8 (16): 309-334. (In Turkish)
31. UTIP – University of Texas Inequality Project, U. of Texas at Austin. https://utip.gov.utexas.edu/ Zandvakili, S. (1994). Income Distribution and Redistribution Through Taxation: An International Comparison, Empirical Economics, 19: 473-491.