Enflasyon ve Faiz OranlarınınVergi Gayreti ile İlişkisi: Türkiye’deUygulanan Gelir Vergisi İçin AmpirikBir Uygulama

Öz

Kamu hizmetlerinin görülmesinde yararlanılan en temel finansman aracı olan vergi gelirlerinin etkin bir şekilde toplanabilmesi önem arz etmektedir. Bu bağlamda vergi gayreti üzerinde etkide bulunabilecek faktörlerin belirlenmesi hususu önceki iktisat literatüründe sıklıkla irdelenmiş ancak enflasyon ve faiz oranlarının etkilerinin analizi üzerinde yeterince yoğunlaşılmamıştır. Bu çalışmada söz konusu eksikliğin giderilmesi amacıyla Türkiye’de gelir vergisi gayreti ile enflasyon oranları ve faiz oranları arasındaki ilişki ampirik olarak sınanmaktadır. Vergi gayretinin göstergesi olarak gelir vergisi tahsilatının vergi tahakkukuna oranlarından yararlanılırken; farklı vade yapılarının etkilerini analiz edebilmek amacıyla altı farklı faiz oranı değişkeninden yararlanılmıştır. Oluşturulan modeller 2006:012016:07 dönemine ait aylık veriler doğrultusunda Johansen eş bütünleşme testi ya da sınır testi yaklaşımı olmak üzere uygun ampirik yöntemlerle sınanmıştır. Sonuç olarak Türkiye’de gelir vergisi gayreti ile enflasyon ve faiz oranları arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir ilişkinin varlığına dair kanıtlara rastlanmamıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Vergi gayreti,Gelir vergisi,Türkiye

The Relationship Between Inflation, Interest Rates and Tax Effort: An Empirical Analysis on Income Taxes in Turkey

Öz

The efficient collection of taxes which are being used as main instruments for financing public services, is a crucial subject. In that context, the factors that may have effect on tax effort have been typically examined in previous economic literature, however in this context, the effects of inflation and interest rates have not been analysed sufficiently. In order to fill the deficiency, the relationship between income tax effort and inflation and interest rates in Turkey is being examined in this study. While using the ratio between tax revenues and accrued tax as an indicator for tax effort, we use six different interest rate variables for analyzing the effects of different maturity structures. Models estimated using the monthly data for the period 2006:01-2016:07 have been tested with Johansen cointegration test or bound testing. As a result no significant evidence has been found for the relationship between tax effort and the interest and inflation rates

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tax Effort,Income Tax,Turkey

Kaynakça

1. AJAZ, Tahseen and Eatzaz AHMAD; (2010), “The Effect of
2. Corruption and Governance on Tax Revenue”, The Pakistan Development Review, 49(4), pp. 405-417. ALLINGHAM Michael G. and Agnar SANDMO; (1972), “Income
3. Tax Evasion: A Theoretical Analysis”, Journal of Public Eco- nomics, 1(3-4), pp. 323-338. ASTERIOU, Dimitrios and Stephen G. HALL; (2015), Applied
4. Econometrics, Palgrave Macmillan. BIRD, Richard M., Jorge MARTINEZ-VASQUEZ, and Benno TORGLER; (2008), “Tax Effort in Developing Countries and High Income Countries: The Impact of Corruption, Voice and Accountability”, Economic Analysis & Policy, 38(1), 55-71.
5. CHELLIAH , Raja J., Hessel J. BAAS and Margaret R. KELLY; (1975), “Tax Ratios and Tax Effort in Developing Countries, 71”, International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 22(1), pp. 205.
6. CRANE Steven E. and Farrokh NOURZAD; (1985), “Time
7. Value of Money and Income Tax Evasion Under Risk-Averse Behavior: Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Evidence”, Public Finance, 40(3), pp. 381-394. CRANE Steven E. and Farrokh NOURZAD; (1990), “Tax Rates and Tax Evasion: Evidence from California Amnesty Data”, Na- tional Tax Journal, 43(2), 189-199.
8. DICKEY, David A. and Wayne A. FULLER; (1979), “Distribu- tion of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a

9. Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, (366), pp. 427-431. GUPTA, Abhijit S.; (2007), “Determinants of Tax Revenue Ef- forts in Developing Countries”., IMF Working Paper, 07(184)
10. Washington: International Monetary Fund. LOTZ, Jorgen R. and Elliott R. MORRS; (1967), “Measuring
11. ‘Tax Effort’ in Developing Countries”, Staff Papers, 14(3), pp. 499, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC. MAHDAVI, Saeid; (2008), “The Level and Composition of Tax
12. Revenue in Developing Countries: Evidence from Unbalanced Panel Data”, International Review of Economics & Finance, (4), pp. 607-617. PESARAN, Hashem, Yongcheol SHIN and Richard J. SMITH; (1999), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long
13. Run Relationships”, Cambridge Working Papers in Econom- ics, 9907, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
14. PESARAN, Hashem, Yongcheol SHIN and Richard J. SMITH; (2001), “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level
15. Relationships”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16( 3), pp. 326. PESSINO, Carola and Ricardo FENOCHIETTO; (2010), “De- termining Countries’ Tax Effort”, Revista de Economia Publica, (4), pp. 65-87.
16. SPENGEL, Cristoph, Jost H. HECKEMEYER and Frank ST- REIF; (2016), “The Effect of Inflation and Interest Rates on For- ward-Looking Effective Tax Rates”, Taxation Papers Working
17. Paper, 63, Centre for European Economic Research. TAIT, Alan A., Wilfrid L.M. GRATZ and Barry, J. EICHEN- GREEN; (1979), “International Comparisons of Taxation for Se- lected Developing Countries, 1972-76”, International Monetary
18. Fund Staff Papers, 26, pp. 123-156. TANZI, Vito and Hamid DAVOODI; (1997), “Corruption, Public
19. Investment, and Growth”, IMF Working Paper, 139, Washing- ton DC. TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYETİ MALİYE BAKANLIĞI MUHASE- BAT GENEL MÜDÜRLÜĞÜ, Genel Bütçe İstatistikleri, https:// www.muhasebat.gov.tr/content/genel-yonetim-mali-istatistik- detayi?tabId=1&pageId=5, 10.07.2016
20. TÜRKİYE CUMHURİYETİ MERKEZ BANKASI, Elektronik Veri Dağıtım Sistemi, http://evds.tcmb.gov.tr/, 12.07.2016.
21. YITZHAKI , Shlomo; (1974), “A Note on Income Tax Evasion: A Theoretical Analysis”, Journal of Public Economics, 3(2), pp. 202.