Making Sense of the Decrease in the Turkish Saving Rate

Öz

Turkish saving rate declined radically in the 2000s. Aggregate saving for a country amounts to the part of GDP not spent on perishable goods, but spent on investment goods. That is, aggregate saving is totally expenditure as well. At the final analysis, one can argue that every expenditure that is not subject to perishable consumption and yields utility in any way in the future is investment. Overall, half of the decline in aggregate saving rate in Turkey in the 2000s is accounted for by higher expenditures concerning education, health and R&D, while the other half emanates from increases in consumption of durable goods. Therefore, the decrease in the “narrowly defined” saving rate in the 2000s is not as important a concern as usually assumed. Moreover, this “decrease” harbors significantly positive elements if one takes into account the importance of education, health and R&D.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Saving, Investment, Education, Health, R&D

Türkiye’nin Tasarruf OranındakiDüşüş Ne Anlama Geliyor?

Öz

Türkiye’nin tasarruf oranının 2000’li yıllarda önemli ölçüde düştüğü bir vakıadır. Tasarruf konusu sanıldığından çok daha karmaşık bir konudur. Kişisel tasarruf bir kişinin gelirinin harcamadığı bölümüne karşılık gelirken, ülke tasarrufu GSYH’nin yatırım yapılan, başka bir deyişle hazır tüketime harcanmayan kısmını göstermektedir. Yani, ülke tasarrufu da aslında tamamiyle harcamadır. GSYH’yi oluşturan harcamaların niteliğine (hazır tüketim mi yatırım mı olduğuna) karar vermek tasarruf oranına da karar vermek anlamına gelmektedir. Bu açıdan, tek bir tasarruf tanımı yoktur. Nihai tahlilde, hazır tüketime konu olmayan ve bir şekilde gelecekte fayda sağlayan her harcama yatırımdır. 2000’li yıllarda tasarruf oranındaki düşüşün yaklaşık yarısı eğitim, sağlık ve Ar-Ge, diğer yarısı ise dayanıklı tüketim harcamalarındaki artıştan kaynaklanmaktadır. Bu açıdan, “dar tanımlı” tasarruf oranının 2000’lerde ciddi şekilde düşmesi, sanıldığı kadar endişe edilecek bir durum değildir. Hatta bu “düşüşün”; eğitim, sağlık ve Ar-Ge’nin önemi hesaba katıldığında, içinde önemli düzeyde pozitif öğeler barındırdığı görülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Tasarruf, Yatırım, Eğitim, Sağlık, Ar-Ge

Kaynakça

1. AGRAWAL, Pradeep, Pravakar Sahoo and Ranjan Kumar Dash; (2009), “Savings Behaviour in South Asia”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, pp. 208-24.
2. ALKİN, Erdoğan; (1970), “1951-1971 Dönemi Yatırım, Tasarruf ve Sermaye-Hasıla Oranları”, İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 30.
3. ATTANASIO, Orazio P., Lucio Picci and Antonello E. Scorcu; (2000), “Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 82, pp. 182-211.
4. AUDENIS, Cedric, Stephane GrEgoir and Claudie Louvot; (2002), “The Various Measures of the Saving Rate and their Interpretation”, Paper presented at the Meeting of the OECD National Accounts Experts, Paris, 8-11 October.
5. Australian TREASURY; (1999), “The Measurement of Saving in Australia”, Economic Roundup(4), 21-50.
6. BAYOUMI, Tamim; (1993), “Financial Deregulation and Household Saving”, The Economic Journal, 103, pp. 1432-43.
7. BERUBE, Gilles, and Denise COtE; (2000), “Long-Term Determinants of the Personal Savings Rate: Literature Review and Some Empirical Results for Canada” Bank of Canada State Working Paper, 3.
8. BLADES, Derek W. and Peter Sturm; (1982), “The Concept and Measurement of Savings: The United States and Other Industrialized Countries”, Paper presented at the Saving and Government Policy Conference Series.

9. CHAMBERLIN, Graeme and Sumit Dey-Chowdhury; (2008), “Household Saving Ratio”, Economic & Labour Market Review, 2(3), pp. 55-61.
10. CLAUS, Iris and Grant Scobie; (2002), “Saving in New Zealand: Measurement and Trends”, New Zealand Treasury Working Paper, 02/02.
11. EDWARDS, Sebastian; (1996), “Why Are Latin America’s Savings Rates So Low? An International Comparative Analysis”, Journal of Development Economics, 51, pp. 5-44.
12. FELDSTEIN, Martin; (1980), “International Differences in Social Security and Saving”, Journal of Public Economics, 14, pp. 225-44.
13. GORMAN, EMMA, Grant Scobie and Yongjoon Paek; (2013), “Measuring Saving Rates in New Zealand: An Update”, New Zealand Treasury Working Paper, 13/04.
14. HARVEY, Ross; (2004), “Comparison of Household Saving ratios: Euro Area/United States/Japan”, OECD Statistics Brief, 8.
15. HEVIA, Constantino; (2010), “Saving in Turkey: An International Comparison”, Paper Presented at the World Bank Workshop on Country Economic Memorandum on Savings and Growth, Ankara, May.
16. HONDROYIANNIS, George; (2006), “Private Saving Determinants in European Countries: A Panel Cointegration Approach”, The Social Science Journal, 43, pp. 553-69.
17. HORIOKA, Charles Yuji, and Ting YIN; (2009), “Household Saving Rates and Social Benefit Ratios: Country Comparisons in Masahiro Kawai and Gloria O. Pasadilla (Ed.), Effects of Social Policy on Domestic Demand Annual Conference 2009, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo, pp. 63-75..
18. HÜFNER, Felix, and Isabell Koske; (2010), Explaining Household Saving Rates in G7 Countries, OECD Publishing, Paris.
19. KIM, Soyoung, and Jong-Wha LEE; (2008), “Demographic Changes, Saving, and Current Account: An Analysis Based on a Panel VAR Model”, Japan and the World Economy, 20, pp. 236-56.
20. LI, Hongbin, Jie Zhang, and Junsen Zhang; (2007); “Effects of Longevity and Dependency Rates on Saving and Growth: Evidence from a Panel of Cross-Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, 84, pp. 138-54.
21. LOAYZA, Norman, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, and Luis ServEn; (2000a), “Saving in Developing Countries: An Overview”, The World Bank Economic Review, 14, pp. 393-414.
22. LOAYZA, Norman, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, and Luis ServEn; (2000b); “What Drives Private Saving Across the World?”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 82, pp. 165-81.
23. MASSON, Paul R., Tamim Bayoumi and Hossein Samiei; (1998), “International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving”, The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 483-501.
24. MATUR, Eser Pirgan, Ali Sabuncu, and Sema Bahçecİ; (2012), “Determinants of Private Saving and Interaction between Public and Private Savings in Turkey”, Topics in Middle Eastern and North African Economies, 14, pp. 102-25.
25. ORTHOFER, Anna; (2015), “What We Talk About When We Talk About Saving: Concepts and Measures of Household Saving and their Application to South Africa”, Economic Research South Africa Working Paper, 530.
26. PEROZEK, Maria G., and Marshall B. Reinsdorf; (2002), “Alternative Measures of Personal Saving”, Survey of Current Business-United States Department of Commerce, 82(4), 13-24.
27. REINSDORF, Marshall B; (2004), “Alternative Measures of Personal Saving”, Survey of Current Business, 84(9), 17-27.
28. ROCHER, Stijin, & Michael Stierle; (2015), “Household Saving Rates in the EU: Why Do They Differ So Much?”, European Commission Discussion Papers, 5.
29. SCHROOTEN, Mechthild, and Sabine Stephan; (2003), “Back on Track? Savings Puzzles in EU-Accession Countries”, ENEPRI Working Paper, 23.
30. TATLIYER, Mevlüt; (2016), Determinants of Private Saving Level: Evidence from Turkey”, Unpublished Manuscript.
31. TATLIYER, Mevlüt; (yayın aşamasında), “Saving Behavior in Turkey: Where Are We? And What to Do About It?” Ahmet Faruk Aysan, Hatice Karahan, Mehmet Babacan and Nurullah
32. GÜR (Ed.) On The Path To High Income Status: The Turkish Economy, Palgrave Macmillan, London.
33. UYGUR, Ercan; (2012), “Türkiye’de Tasarrufların Seyri ve Etkileyen Bazı Unsurlar”, Discussion Paper of Turkish Economic Association, 108.
34. ZELDES, Stephen P.; (1989), “Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation”, Journal of Political Economy, 97, pp. 305-46.