Küreselleşme ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Yükselen Piyasa Ekonomileri İçin Bir Uygulama

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 639, 1117 - 1161, 01.05.2018

Ali Altıner , Eda Bozkurt , Yılmaz Toktaş

Öz

Bu çalışmada, küreselleşmenin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi 10 büyük yükselen piyasa ekonomisi için 1990-2015 döneminde panel veri tekniği kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Analiz kapsamında, ekonomik büyüme değişkenini temsilen kişi başına düşen reel GSYH, küreselleşmeyi temsilen ise KOF küreselleşme endeksi ve alt bileşenleri kullanılmıştır. Durbin-Hausman eşbütünleşme testiyle seriler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler belirlenerek, Panel AMG yöntemiyle katsayı tahminleri yapılmıştır. Sonuçlara göre, KOF küreselleşme endeksi ve alt bileşenlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisinin çok düşük ve ülkeden ülkeye farklılık gösterdiği görülmüştür. Ayrıca değişkenler arasındaki nedensel ilişkilerin belirlenmesi için Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse (2011) nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır. Politik küreselleşmeden ekonomik büyümeye doğru ve ekonomik büyümeden sosyal küreselleşmeye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu belirlenmiştir. Ancak genel ve ekonomik küreselleşme endeksi ile ekonomik büyüme arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanılamamıştır

Anahtar Kelimeler

Küreselleşme, Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel Veri Analizi

Globalization and Economic Growth: An Application for The Emerging Market Economies

Öz

In this study, the effect of globalization on economic growth was examined using panel data method for Big Ten Emerging Market Economies from 1990 to 2015. Within the scope of the analysis, real GDP per capita as the economic growth variable, the KOF globalization index and its subcomponentsfor globalization were used. Having determined the long-run relations between series by DurbinHausman cointegration test, coefficients were estimated using the panel AMG method. According to the results, it was found that the effects of the KOF globalization index and its subcomponents on economic growth were very low and varied among countries. Moreover, the causality test of Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse (2011) was used to determine the causality between variables. Unidirectional causal relationships were found from political globalization to economic growth and from economic growth to social globalization. However, no causal relationship was found between the general and economic globalization index and economic growth

Anahtar Kelimeler

Globalization, Economic Growth, Panel Data Analysis

Kaynakça

• AÇIKGÖZ, Şenay ve Merter MERT; (2011), “Küreselleşme İktisadi Büyümeyi Etkiliyor mu?
• Türkiye Örneği”, 12. Uluslararası Ekonometri, Yöneylem Araştırması ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, ss.701-716. ADIGÜZEL, Muhittin; (2011), Küreselleşme ve Sonuçları, Nobel Yayınevi, Ankara.
• AFZAL, Mohammed; (2007), “The Impact of Globalization on Economic Growth of Pakistan:An
• Error-Corretion Modelling”, The Pakistan Development Review, 46(4), pp.723–734. AKA, Bedia; (2006), “Openness, Globalization And Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from
• Cote D’Ivoire”, International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, 3-2 (2006), pp.67-86.
• BALIAMOUNE, Mina N.; (2002), Assessing the Impact of one Aspect of Globalization on Economic
• Growth in Africa, World Institute for Development Economics (UNU-WIDER), Working Paper No:200222/91.
• BARRY, Hadiatou; (2010), “Globalization and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa”
• Gettysburg Economic Review, 4 (4), pp.42-86. BRITTAN, Leon; (1998), Globalisation vs Sovereignty? The European Response.The 1997 Rede
• Lecture and Related Speeches, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. BRUNNER, Allan, D.; (2003), The Long-run Effects of Trade on Income and Income Growth
• Working Paper No:03/37, International Monetary Fund, Washington. CASELLI, Marco; (2008), “Measuring… What? Notes on Some Globalization Indices”
• Globalizations 5(3), pp. 383–404. CHANG, Chun-Ping and Chien-Chiang LEE; (2010), “Globalization and Growth: A Political
• Economy Analysis for OECD Countries”, Global Economic Review, 39(2), pp.151-173. CHANG, Chun-Ping, Chien-Chiang LEE and Meng-Chi HSIEH; (2011), “Globalization, Real
• Output and Multiple Structural Breaks”, Global Economic Review, 40(4), pp.421- 444. CHOW, C. Gregory; (2006), “Globalization And China’s Economic Development”, PaciŞc Economic Review, 11(3), pp.271-285.
• CHU, Hsiao-Ping, Tsangyao CHANG and TAGI Sagadi-Nejad; (2016), “Globalization and Economic
• Growth Revisited: A Bootstrap Panel Causality Test”, Globalization and Economic Growth, 1(1), pp.30-44. ÇELİK, Yunus Mehmet ve Hüsnü ERKAN; (2010), “Küreselleşme Kalkınma İlişkisi”, Dumlupınar
• Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 26(2010), ss.183-196.
• DOĞAN, Buhari ve Muhlis, CAN; (2016), “Küreselleşmenin Büyümeye Etkisi: Güney Kore
• Örnekleminde Eşbütünleşme Analizi”, Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), ss. 197-220. DOĞAN Buhari; (2017), “Ekonomik Küreselleşme ve Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği Toda
• Yamamoto Nedensellik Analizi”, Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 54(628), ss.19-27. DOLLAR, David and Aart Kraay; (2004), “Trade, Growth and Poverty”, The Economic Journal, (493), pp.22-49.
• DEMİREL, Demokaan; (2006), “Küresel Eksende Devletin Yeni Kimliği: Etkin Devlet”, Sayıştay Dergisi, 60, ss.105-128.
• DREHER, Axel; (2006), “Does Globalization Affect Growth? Evidence from a New Index of
• Globalization”, Applied Economics, 2006(38), pp.1091-1110.
• EBERHARDT, Markus and BOND, Stephen; (2009), “Cross-Section Dependence in Nonstationary
• Panel Models: A Novel Estimator.” [online] Munich Personal RePEc Archive https://mpra.ub.uni- muenchen.de/17870/2/MPRA_paper_17870.pdf (Accessed 01 Februrary 2018)
• EDWARDS, Sebastian; (1997), Openness, Productivity and Growth: What do We Really Know?
• NBER Working Paper Series, Working Paper No:5978.
• ELÇİN, A. Bora; (2012), Küreselleşmenin Tarihçesi, Ankara.
• EMİRMAHMUTOĞLU, Furkan and KÖSE, Nezir; (2011). “Testing for Granger Causality in
• Heterogeneous Mixed Panels”. Economic Modelling 28(3), pp.870–876. FAUSTINO, Horácio C. and Carim VALI; (2013), “ The Effects Of Globalization and Economic
• Growth on Income Inequality: Evidence for 24 OECD Countries”, Argumenta Oeconomica, 1(30), pp.13-31. GARTEN, Jeffrey E.; (1998), “ The Big Ten; The Big Ten Markets and How They Will Change Our
• Lives”, Basic Books, New York. GÖKBUNAR, Ramazan, Harun ÖZDEMİR ve Alparslan UĞUR; (2008), “Küreselleşme
• Kıskacındaki Refah Devletinde Sosyal Refah Harcamaları”, Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 9(2), ss.158- GOZGOR, Giray and Muhlis CAN; (2017), “Causal Linkages among the Product Diversification of
• Exports, Economic Globalization and Economic Growth”, Review of Development Economics, (3), pp.888–908. GURGUL, Henryk and Lukasz LACH; (2014), “Globalization and Economic Growth: Evidence
• HAYALOĞLU, Pınar, Cemalettin KALAYCI ve Seyfettin ARTAN; (2015), “Küreselleşme Farklı
• Gelir Grubundaki Ülkelerde Ekonomik Büyümeyi Nasıl Etkilemektedir?”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi,10(1), ss.119- 152. HESHMATI, Almas and Sangchoon LEE; (2010), “The Relationship between Globalization
• Economic Growth and Income Inequality”, Journal of Globalization Studies, 1(2), pp.87-117. KAKAR, Zaheeer Khan, Bashir Ahmad KHILJI and Muhammad Jawad KHAN; (2011)
• “Globalization and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan”, Acta Universitatis Danubius,7(3), pp.208-217. KAZAR, Altuğ and Görkemli KAZAR; (2016), “Globalization, Financial Development and Economic Growth”, International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6 (2), pp.578-587.
• KILIÇ, Cüneyt, (2015); “Effects of Globalization on Economic Growth: Panel Data Analysis for
• Developing Countries”, Economic Insights – Trends and Challenges, 4(1), pp.1-11. KUEPPER, Justin; “Globalization and Its Impact On Economic Growth How Globalization Impacts International Investors”, https://www.thebalance.com/globalization-and-its-impact-on-economic- growth-1978843. 22.12.2017.
• LAMY, Pascal; 2006, “Humanising Globalization”, Geneva, Switzerland: The WTO; [updated 2006
• Jan 30; cited 2006 June 1]. Available from: http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/sppl_e/sppl16_e.htm.
• LEONG, Kian Chee; (2007), A Tale of Two Countries: Openness and Growth in China and India, RePEc Working Paper.
• LOMBAERDE, Philippe De and P. Lelio IAPADRE; (2008), “The World is not Flat Implications for the Construction of Globalisation Indicators”, World Economics, 9(4) , pp.159-180.
• MARTENS, Pim, MARC Caselli, Philippe De LOMBAERDE, Lukas FIGGE and Jan Aart SCHOLTE; “New Directions in Globalization Indices”, Globalizations, 12(2), pp.217–228. MERAJ, Muhammed; (2013), “Impact of Globalization and Trade Openness on Economic Growth in
• Bangladesh”, Ritsumeikan Journal of Asia Pacific Studies, 32(2013), pp.40-50.
• MERCAN, Mehmet; (2014), “Feldstein-Horioka Hipotezinin AB-15 ve Türkiye Ekonomisi için
• Sınanması: Yatay Kesit Bağımlılığı Altında Yapısal Kırılmalı Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi”, Ege Akademik Bakış, 14(2), ss.231-245. MUTASCU, Mihai and Anne-Marie FLEISCHER ; (2011), “Economic Growth and Globalization in
• Romania”, World Applied Sciences Journal, 12(10), pp.1691-1697.
• NAYYAR, Deepak; (2000), UNCTAD X High-level Round Table on Trade and Development
• Directions for the Twenty-First Century Globalization and Development Strategies, UNCTAD. OLIMPIA, Neagu ve Dima STELA; (2017), “Impact of Globalisation on Economic Growth in
• Romania: An Empirical Analysis of Its Economic, Social and Political Dimensions”, Studia Universitatis Economic Series, Vasile Goldis, Western University of Arad, 27(1), pp.29-40. OSTERHAMMEL, Jürgen and Niels P. PETERSSON; (2005), Globalization: A Short History
• Princeton University Press, Princeton and Oxford. PESARAN, M. Hashem; (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in
• Panels”, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics, 435, p.1-39. PESARAN, M. Hashem; (2007), “A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross‐Section
• Dependence”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), pp.265-312. PESARAN, M.Hashem and YAMAGATA, Takashi; (2008), “Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large
• Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), pp.50-93. POLASEK, Wolfgang and Richard Sellner; (2013), “Does Globalization Affect Regional Growth?
• Evidence For NUTS-2 Regions in Eu-27”, DANUBE: Law and Economics Review, 4 (1), pp.23–65. POTRAFKE, Niklas; (2014), The Evidence on Globalization, CESIFO Working Paper No: 4708
• Category 2: Public Choice. RAO, B. Bhaskara and Krishna Chaitanya VADLAMANNATI; (2011), “Globalization and Growth in the Low Income African Countries with Extreme Bounds Analysis”, Economic Modelling, 28(3), pp.795-805.
• RAY, Sarbapriya; (2012), “Globalization and Economic Growth in India: A Granger Causality
• Approach”, Journal of Law, Policy and Globalization, 2(2012), pp.18-30.
• SACHS, Jeffrey D. and Andrew WARNER; (1995), “Economic Reform and the Process of Global
• Integration”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1(1995), pp.1-118.
• SALVATORE, Dominick; (2004), “Globalization and Economic Growth in the World Economy”, New Medit N., 1(2004), pp.4-8.
• SAMIMI, Parisa and Hashem Salarzadeh JENATABADI; (2014), “Globalization and Economic
• Growth: Empirical Evidence on the Role of Complementarities”, Globalization and Economic Growth, 9(4), pp.1-7. SATO, Sumie and Mototsugu FUKUSHIGE; (2009), “Globalization and Economic Inequality in the Short and Long Run:The Case of South Korea 1975–1995”, Journal of Asian Economics, 20 (2009), pp.62–68.
• SEYREK, İsmail (2002); “Küreselleşme Sürecinde İktisat Politikaları ve Yakınsama Tezi”, G.Ü.
• İ.İ.B.F. Özel Sayısı 2002, ss.167-187.
• SCHOLTE, Jan Aart; (2008), “DeŞning Globalisation”, The World Economy, (2008), doi: 1111/j.1467-9701.2007.01019.x
• ŠLIBURYTĖ, Laimona and Rūta MASTEİKİENĖ; (2010), “Impacts of Globalization On Lithuanian
• Economic Growth”, Economics and Management, 2010(15), pp.288-294.
• SUBASAT, Turan; (2003), “What does the Hechscher–Ohlin Model Contribute to International
• Trade Theory? A Critical Assessment”, Review of Radical Political Economics, 35(2), pp.148-165. TATOĞLU YERDELEN, Ferda; (2013a), Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı, Beta
• Yayınları, 2. Baskı, İstanbul. TÜREDİ, Salih; (2016), “Küreselleşmenin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Gelişmekte Olan
• Ülkeler İçin Panel Veri Analizi”, Uluslararası Osmaneli Sosyal Bilimler Kongresi, 12-14 Ekim 206, Bilecik. UNİTED NATİONS; (2004), Globalization and the State: Challenges for Economic Growth and Human Development, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs Division for Public
• Administration and Development Management, New York. WESTERLUND, Joakim; (2008), “Panel Cointegration Tests of the Fisher Effect”. Journal of
• Applied Econometrics, 23(2), p.193-233. YING, Yung-Hsiang, Koyin CHANG and Chen-Hsun LEE; (2014), “The Impact Of Globalization on
• Economic Growth”, Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 17(2), pp.25-34. ZAHONOGO, Pam; (2017), “Globalization and Economic Growth in Developing Countries
• Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa”, The International Trade Journal, https://doi.org/10.1080/08853908.2017.1333933, p.1-20
• ZHUANG, Renan and Won W. Koo; (2007), “Economic Growth under Globalization: Evidence from
• Panel Data Analysis”, American Agricultural Economics Association Annual Meeting, Portland, OR, July 29 – August 1, 2007