Dışsal Faktörlerin Ulaşım Sektörüne Etkisi: Lojistik Firmalarından Kanıtlar

Yıl 2017, Sayı: 633, 41 - 59, 01.11.2017

Salih Kalaycı

Öz

Sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyümenin vazgeçilmez unsurlarından birisi ulaşım sektörüdür. Bu gerçeğe bağlı olarak literatürde ulaşım sektörünü etkileyen faktörler tespit edilip ekonometrik ölçümlerde ele alınmışlardır. Bu bağlamda, konunun önemine istinaden parametrik test yapabilmek için Dünya Bankası’nın (2016) resmî sitesinden, ülkelerin 1980 – 2011 yılları arasındaki GSMH ve ihracat hacmi verileri alınıp hava taşımacılığı hacmine etkileri ve aralarındaki uzun vadeli ilişkiler ölçülmüştür. Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testi ile; ABD, Türkiye, Çin ve Hindistan’ın GSMH’sı ve ihracat hacminin, havacılık hacmi ile uzun vadeli ilişkileri saptanılmıştır. Ayrıca, ABD’nin GSMH’sının ve ihracat hacminin havayolu taşımacılığına etkisini ölçmek için 1980 – 2011 yılları arasındaki veriler alınıp doğrusal regresyon testi yapılmıştır. Sonuçlar ABD’nin GSMH’sı ve ihracat hacmi büyüdükçe, havayolu taşıma hacminin büyüdüğünü göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

GSMH, İhracat Hacmi, Taşımacılık Sektörü, Uluslararası İktisat, Uluslararası Ticaret.

The Impact of External Factors on Transportation Sector: Evidence from Logistics Companies

Öz

The irrevocable component of the sustainable economic growth is definitely transportation. Given this fact, we have determined the factors influencing the transportation sector based on the literature and we have used them in an econometric computation. In this context, GDP and export data in the period 1980- 2011 is collected from World Bank’s official website (2016) in order to determine the long term relationship between these variables and to measure the impact of the GDP and the export volume on the air transportation in a parametric manner. The Johansen Cointegration Test demonstrated the long term relationship between USA, Turkey, China and India’s GDP and export volume with their air transportation. Furthermore, data of USA’s GDP and export volume is collected between 1980 and 2011 to measure their effects on the USA’s air transportation by using linear regression. The results indicates that as long as the USA’s GDP growth rate and export volume increases the air transportation increases as well.

Anahtar Kelimeler

GDP, Export Volume, Transportation Sector, International Economics, International Trade

Kaynakça

• AL-GHANDOOR, Ahmet; (2013) “An approach to energy savings and improved environmental impact through restructuring Jordan’s transport sector”, Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 18(3), 31-42.
• AL-GHANDOOR, Ahmet; JABER, Jamel; Ismael, AL-HINTI and Yousef, ABDALLAT; (2013), “Statistical assessment and analyses of the determinants of transportation sector gasoline demand in Jordan”, Transportation Research Part A-Policy and Practice, 50(1), pp. 129-138.
• CHOUDHARY, Muhammad; KHAN, Nawar; Arshad, MUHAMMAD and Aisha ABBAS (2009), “Analyzing Pakistan’s Freight Transportation Infrastructure Using Porter’s Framework and Forecasting Future Freight Demand Using Time Series Models”, Proceedings of the 2nd Wseas International Conference on Urban Planning and Transportation, pp. 70-77.
• CHU, Zhaofang; (2012), “Logistics and economic growth: a panel data approach”, Annals of Regional Science, 49(1), pp. 87-102.
• CLOSS, David J.; SWINK, Morgan and Anand NAIR; (2005), “The Role of information Connectivity in Making Flexible Logisties Programs Successful”, Intemational Journal of Physical Distribution & Logisties Management, 35(4), pp. 258-277.
• DEMURGER, Sylvie; (2001), “Infrastructure development and economic growth: An explanation for regional disparities in China ?”, Journal of Comparative Economics, 29(1), pp. 95-117.
• DING, Lei.; Haynes, KINGSLEY and Yanchun, LUI; (2008), “Telecommunications infrastructure and regional income convergence in China: panel data approaches”, Annals of Regional Science, 42(1), pp. 843-861.
• Dünya Bankası; (2016), “World GDP Ranking, World Bank, Washington D.C”, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP. MKTP.CD/countries, (12.01.2016).
• Dünya Bankası; (2016), “Air Transportation, World Bank, Washington D.C”, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AIR. DPRT, (15.01.2016).
• Dünya Bankası; (2016), “Export Volume, World Bank D.C”, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TX.QTY.MRCH.XD.WD, (15.01.2016).
• Dünya Bankası; (2016), “Air Transport Freight, World Bank D.C”, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/IS.AIR.GOOD.MT.K1, (17.03.2016).
• Dünya Bankası; (2016), “CO2 Emissions, World Bank D.C”, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.CO2.TRAN.ZS, (19.04.2016).
• Dünya Bankası; (2016), “Fossil Fuel Energy Consumption, World Bank D.C”, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.USE. COMM.FO.ZS, (15.04.2016).
• FED; (2016), “Federal Reserve Bank, Federal Funds Rate”, http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FEDFUNDS#, (15.05.2016).
• GOGONEATA, Basarab; (2008), “An analysis of explanatory factors of logistics performance of a country”, Journal of Amfiteatru Economic, 10(24), pp. 143-156.
• GÜLEN, Kemal G.; (2011), Lojistik Sektöründe Durum Analizi ve Rekabetçi Stratejiler, İstanbul, Türkiye İstanbul Ticaret Odası Yayınları.
• HU, Kai; GAN, Xiao-qing and Kuo GAO; (2012), “Co-integration model of logistics infrastructure investment and regional economic growth in central China”, Physics Procedia, 33(2): 1036-1041.
• HUI-YUN, Zhang and Zhu MEI-GUI; (2011), “An Empirical Research on the Relation between the Air Transportation and Economic Growth”, Management Science and Engineering, 2(1), pp. 662-667.
• JERCEA, Alina; (2012), “Recovery Forecast for Transport Sector As Result of Effects of Economic Crisis From 2008”, Journal of Metalurgia International, 17(8), pp. 183-187.
• JONATHAN, Rubin and Paul LEIBY; (2013), “Tradable credits system design and cost savings for a national low carbon fuel standard for road transport”, Elsevier Journal of Enerjy Policy, 56(1), pp. 16-28.
• LARCH, Mario; (2007), “The Multinationalization of the transport sector”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 29(3), 397-416.
• LI, Aibin and Pianpian, ZHAO; (2015), “Empirical Analysis on the Relationship Between Logistics Industry and Economic Growth in Xuzhou”, Management & Engineering, 20(1), pp. 80- 85.
• LI, Zhibin; WANG, Lingling and LOU, Haichuan; (2012), “Analysis and Forecasting on the Relationship between Port Logistics Capacity and Coastal Marine Economic Growth Based on PKNN-in Case of Zhejiang Province”, IEEE Proceedings of the 2012 Eighth International Conference on Computational Intelligence and Security, pp. 247-251.
• LIPSCY, Phillip and Lee SCHIPPER; (2013), “Energy efficiency in the Japanese transport sector”, Elsevier Journal of Enerjy Policy, 56(1), pp. 248-258.
• LUI, Yang; (2006), “Empirical Study on the Relationship between Logistics Industry and National Economy”, Journal of Wuhan University of Technology, 6(1), pp. 115-123.
• LU, Chin-Shan and Ching-Chiao YANG; (2007), “An Evaluation of the Investment Environment in International Logistics Zones: A Taiwanese Manufacturer’s Perspective”, Elsiver: International Journal of Production Economics, 107(1), pp. 279-300.
• MCKINNON, Alan.; (2009), “The present and future land requirements of logistical activities”, Elsevier: Journal of Land Use Policy, 29(1), pp. 293-301.
• MIRJAM, Lely; REMMELT, Looijen and BART, Daalder; (2001), “The Relation Between Economic Zone and Logistics Development”, TNO Innovation for life Raporu, 12, pp. 166-195.
• Nasdaq; (2016) “Hisse Senedi Değerleri”, http://www.nasdaq. com/symbol/luv/stock-chart?intraday=off&timeframe=10y&spl its=off&earnings=off&movingaverage=None&lowerstudy=volu me&comparison=off&index=&drilldown=off (25.07.2016).
• NGUYEN, Hong-Oanh and Jose, TONGZON; (2010), “Causal nexus between the transport and logistics sector and trade: The case of Australia”, Elsevier: Journal of Transport Policy, 17(3), pp. 135-146.
• Oxford Economics; (2016), ‘‘GDP Growth Data, Oxford, UK’’, http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/, (25.05.2016).
• QIAN, Xiao-Ying and Chuan, XIU; (2007), “Cointegration Test for Logistics and Economic Growth”, Journal of Hunan University, 4(1), pp. 84-87.
• SERENA, Ng and Perron, PIERRE; (2001), ‘‘Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power’’, Econometrica, 69 (6), pp. 1519-1554.
• Southwest Havayolları; (2016), “Kârlılık Raporları”, http://www. southwestonereport.com/2012/pdfs/2012SouthwestAirlinesOn eReport.pdf, (23.05.2016).
• TONGZON, Jose and Owen, NGUYEN; (2009), “China’s eco nomic rise and it’s implications for logistics: The Australian case”, Elsevier: Journal of Transport Policy, 16(5), pp. 224-231.
• VOOREN, Van De; (2004), “Modeling transport in interaction with the economy”, Transportation Research Part E-Logistics and Transportation Review, 40(5), pp. 417-437.
• WANG, Zhenzhen and CHEN, Gongyu; (2010), “Empirical Study on the Affecting Factors of China’s Spatial Distribution of Logistics Industry Cluster”, Proceedings of the Fourth Interna tional Conference on Operations and Supply Chain Manage ment, pp. 195-199.
• WEN-SHUN, Li and Zhou, HONG; (2004), “The Cointegration Analysis on Logistics Increment and the GDP Growth in China: 1952-2002”, China Soft Science Management, 12(1), pp. 45- 49.
• XIAN-BING, Ping.; (2008), “The Qnantitative Analysis of logis tics Industry and coordinated Economic Development in Hunan Province”, Technoeconomics & Management Research, 6(1), pp. 128-130.
• XIANG-ZHI, Bu and Xu, LEI; (2009), “An Empirical Study of the Active Roles of Logistics Industry on Economy in China”, Journal of Shantou University, 25(5), pp. 60-64.
• XIE, Caihong and Dingti, LUO; (2010), “Empirical Studies on the Relationship Between Logistics Development and the Eco nomic Growth of Tertiary Industry of Hunan”, Management & Engineering, 1(20), pp. 102-107.