Ekonomik Dinamikler ve Doğurganlık Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye'de Varoluşsal Bir Sorun Olarak Bebek Kıtlığı

Öz

Malthus ve Marx'ın klasik görüşlerinden Dumont ve Becker'in çağdaş perspektiflerine kadar uzanan teorisyenler, ekonomik faktörlerin doğurganlık eğilimlerini açıklamadaki önemli rolünü sürekli olarak vurgulamış, demografik dinamiklerin incelenmesinde tarihsel ve modern ekonomik teorileri birbirine bağlayan bir anlatı oluşturmuşlardır. Bu çalışma, 1990'dan 2022'ye kadar ekonomik faktörlerin Türkiye'deki doğurganlık oranları üzerindeki etkisini inceleyerek, tüketici fiyat endeksi, kişi başına düşen GSYİH ve GSYİH'nın yüzdesi olarak sosyal koruma harcamalarındaki değişimlerin nüfus eğilimlerini nasıl etkilediğine odaklanmaktadır. Serilerde birden fazla yapısal kırılma gözlemlendiği için Clemente Montanes Reyes, Hatemi-J ve Maki analizleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonuçları, Türkiye'deki doğurganlık oranının ekonomik faktörlerden önemli ölçüde etkilenmediğini göstermektedir. Bu değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli bir eşbütünleşme kanıtı bulunamamıştır. Dolayısıyla, ekonomik faktörlerdeki değişikliklerin doğurganlık oranı üzerinde çok az veya ihmal edilebilir düzeyde doğrudan bir etkisi vardır. Bu araştırma, hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerde doğurganlık politikalarının şekillendirilmesi için önemli bir kıstas sunmakta, ekonomik gelişmenin nüfus eğilimlerini nasıl etkilediğini kapsamlı bir şekilde incelemektedir. Bu sonuçlar, doğurganlığın karmaşık dinamiklerini ortaya koymakta ve artan kadın işgücüne katılımı, çocuk bakım maliyetlerini, doğurganlık kaygısını ve iş-aile çatışmasının doğurganlık düşüşü üzerindeki etkilerini anlamanın önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğurganlık hızı
• Ekonomik Faktörler
• Bebek kıtlığı

The Relationship Between Economic Dynamics and Fertility: As an Existential Issue of Baby Shortage in Türkiye

Abstract

Spanning from the classical insights of Malthus and Marx to the contemporary perspectives of Dumont and Becker, theorists have consistently underscored the pivotal role of economic factors in explaining fertility trends, weaving a narrative that connects historical and modern economic theories in the study of demographic dynamics. This study examines the impact of economic factors on Türkiye's fertility rates from 1990 to 2022, focusing on how changes in the consumer price index, GDP per capita, and social protection expenditure have influenced population trends. As more than one structural break was observed in the series, Clemente Montanes Reyes, Hatemi-J and Maki analyses were carried out. The results of the study do not indicate that the fertility rate in Türkiye is significantly affected by economic factors. No evidence of long-run cointegration between these variables was found. Therefore, changes in economic factors have little or negligible direct impact on the fertility rate. This research offers a crucial benchmark for shaping fertility policies in both developed and developing nations, as it thoroughly examines how economic progress influences population trends. These results highlight the complex dynamics of fertility and underline the need to understand the effects of increased female labor force participation, childcare costs, fertility anxiety and work-family conflict fertility decline.

Keywords

• Fertility rate
• Economic Factors
• Baby shortage

Kaynakça

1. Aile ve Sosyal Hizmetler Bakanlığı (2024). Doğurganlık oranının artırılmasına yönelik yeni politikalar için Aile ve Nüfus Politikaları Daire Başkanlığı kuruldu. https://www.aile.gov.tr/haberler/dogurganlik-oraninin-artirilmasina-yonelik-yeni-politikalar-icin-aile-ve-nufus-politikalari-daire-baskanligi-kuruldu/ (3/9/2024)
2. Akyüz, Y. & Boratav, K. (2003). The making of the Turkish financial crisis. World Development, 31(9), 1549–1566.
3. Bai, J. & Perron, P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66(1), 47–78.
4. Baum, C. (2005). Stata: The language of choice for time-series analysis?. Stata Journal, 5(1), 46–63.
5. Becker, G. (1993). A treatise on the family. Harvard University Press.
6. Becker, G. S. & Lewis, H. G. (1973). On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2), S279–S288.
7. Berde, É. & Drabancz, Á. (2022). The propensity to have children in Hungary, with some examples from other European countries. Frontiers in Sociology, 7. Article 1009115. https://doi.org/10.3389/fsoc.2022.1009115
8. Blair, S. L. & Madigan, T. J. (2021). Marriage and Fertility preferences among young women in China: Changes over time. Journal of Family Issues, 42(10), 2353–2376. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192513X20980040

9. Bongaarts, J. & Hodgson, D. (2022). Socio-economic determinants of fertility. J. Bongaarts & D. Hodgson (Eds.), Fertility transition in the developing world (p. 51–62). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-11840-1_4
10. Brezis, S. & Warren, Y. (2003). The new views on demographic transition: A Reassessment of Malthus and Marx s views on population. The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, 10(1), 25–45.
11. Clemente Lopez, J., Montañés, A. & Reyes, M. (1998). Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean. Economics Letters, 59(2), 175–182.
12. Comolli, C. L. (2017). The fertility response to the Great Recession in Europe and the United States: Structural economic conditions and perceived economic uncertainty. Demographic Research, 36, 1549–1600.
13. CoR. (2021). 2021 EU Regional and Local Barometer. European Comission. https://cor.europa.eu/en/our-work/Documents/barometer-fullreport%20web.pdf (12/09/2024)
14. Das, Z. O. (2020). Determinants of fertility rates in Turkey. International Journal of Public Administration. Taylor & Francis Journals, 43(5), 466-476. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/01900692.2019.167
15. Deliktaş, E., Usta, S., Bozkurt, S. & Helvacı, B. (2008). Türkiye’de kentlerde doğurganlık hızını etkileyen faktörler: Path analizi yaklaşımı. Ege Akademik Bakış, 8(2), 877–895.
16. Dickey, D. & Fuller, W. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(336), 427–431. https://doi.org/10.2307/2286348
17. Dribe, M. & Smith, C. (2021). Social class and fertility: A long-run analysis of Southern Sweden, 1922–2015. A Journal of Demography, 75(3), 305–323. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2020.1810746
18. Doepke, M., Hannusch, A., Kindermann, F. & Tertilt, M. (2022). The economics of fertility: A new era (NBER Working Paper No. 29948). National Bureau of Economic Research. http://www.nber.org/papers/w29948 (3/9/2024)
19. Du, L. S. & Lin, H. (2022). The impact of delayed retirement on fertility and revenue and expenditure balance of pension. Research on Financial and Economic Issues, 10, 92–100. https://doi.org/10.19654/j.cnki.cjwtyj.2022.10.010
20. Dumont, A. (1890). Dépopulation et civilisation. Étude démographique. Economica. Paris.
21. Eroğlu, K., Koruk, F., Koruk, İ., Çelik, K., Güner, P. & Kiliçli, A. (2021). Women’s reproductive behaviour and perspectives on fertility, and their modifying factors, in a Turkish province with a high fertility rate. The European Journal of Contraception & Reproductive Health Care, 26(2), 139–147. https://doi.org/10.1080/13625187.2020.1857355
22. Gauthier, A. H. (2007). The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: A review of the literature. Population Research and Policy Review, 26(3), 323–346.
23. Goldstein, J. R., Kreyenfeld, M., Jasilioniene, A. & Örsal, D. K. (2013). Fertility reactions to the “Great Recession” in Europe: Recent evidence from order-specific data. Demographic Research, 29, 85–104.
24. Greil, A. L., McQuillan, J., Richardson, E., Lowry, M. H., Blevins, K., Tiemeyer, S. M. & Burch, A. R. (2020). Stability and change in motherhood status and fertility problem identification: Implications for changes in self-esteem. Journal of Family Issues, 41(9). https://doi.org/10.1177/0192513X19894
25. Guetto, R., Vignoli, D. & Bazzani, G. (2021). Marriage and cohabitation under uncertainty: The role of narratives of the future during the COVID-19 pandemic. European Societies, 23(1), 674–688. https://doi.org/10.1080/14616696.2020.1833359
26. Güneş, H. H. (2009). İktisat tarihi açısından nüfus teorileri ve politikaları. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 8(28), 126–138.
27. Guo, Z., Wu, Z., Schimmele, C. M. & Li, S. (2012). The effect of urbanization on china’s fertility. Population Research and Policy Review, 31(3), 417–434.
28. Hartmann, B. (1988). Reproductive rights and wrongs: Global politics of population control and contraceptive choice. FisicalBook. USA.
29. Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 497–505. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-007-0175-9
30. İğdeli, A. (2019). Ekonomik belirsizlik ve doğurganlık hızı arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye için ARDL analizi. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 8(1), 359–381. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.498632
31. İlkkaracan, İ. (2012). Why so few women in the labor market in Turkey?. Feminist Economics, 18(1), 1–37. https://doi.org/10.1080/13545701.2011.649358
32. Jain, S. N. (1981). Book reviews. Indian Journal of Public Administration, 27(1), 212-214. https://doi.org/10.1177/0019556119810119
33. Jermain, D. (1975). Marx on population: A critical review including a comparison to Malthus and a new perspective on Marx. Dissertations and Theses, Portland State University., Paper 823. https://doi.org/10.15760/etd.823
34. Jones, L. E., Schoonbroodt, A. & Tertilt, M. (2008). Fertility theories: Can they explain the negative fertility-income relationship? (Working Paper 14266). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w14266
35. Karacsony, J. A. (2020). European Committee of the Regions: “Demographic change: proposals on measuring and tackling its negative effects in the EU regions”. https://www.elfac.org/european-committee-of-the-regions/ (12/09/2024)
36. Kaur, J. S. (2000). Migration patterns and breast carcinoma. American Cancer Society Journals, 88(S5), 1203–1206.
37. Kim, S., Lee, J. K. & Lee, C. (2021). Factors associated with low fertility in South Korea: A systematic review. Journal of Korean Medical Science, 36(19), Article e127. https://doi.org/10.3346/jkms.2021.36.e127
38. Kreyenfeld, M. & Andersson, G. (2014). Socioeconomic differences in the unemployment and fertility nexus: Evidence from Denmark and Germany. Advances in Life Course Research, 21, 59–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2014.01.007
39. Kreyenfeld, M., Andersson, G. & Pailhé, A. (2012). Economic uncertainty and family dynamics in europe: Introduction. Demographic Research, 27, 835–852.
40. Kutlar, A., Erdem, E. & Aydin, F. F. (2012). Kadınların işgücüne katılması ile doğurganlık, boşanma ve ücret haddi arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye üzerine bir araştırma. Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 7(1), Article 1.
41. Leibenstein, H. (1981). The inflation process: A micro-behavioral analysis. American Economic Review, 71(2), 368–373.
42. Lin, H. & Kong, H. (2023). Big data analysis of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility: Focusing on comparisons among OECD countries. Asia-pacific Journal of Convergent Research Interchange, 9(5), 149–162. https://doi.org/10.47116/apjcri.2023.05.13
43. Luci-Greulich, A. & Thévenon, O. (2014). Does economic advancement ‘cause’ a re-increase in fertility? An empirical analysis for OECD countries (1960–2007). European Journal of Population, 30(2), 187–221. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-013-9309-2
44. Maki, D. (2012). Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011–2015. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.04.022
45. Matysiak, A. & Vignoli, D. (2008). Fertility and women’s employment: A Meta-analysis. European Journal of Population / Revue Européenne de Démographie, 24(4), 363–384. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-007-9146-2
46. Meladze, G. (2023). Low fertility - The challenge of demographic security of Georgia. Georgian Geographical Journal, 3(2), 45-60. https://doi.org/10.52340/ggj.2023.03.02.08
47. Neyer, G. & Andersson, G. (2008). Consequences of family policies on childbearing behavior: Effects or artifacts?. Population and Development Review, 34(4), 699–724. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2008.00246.x
48. Özgür, E. M. (2004). Türkiye’de toplam doğurganlık hızının mekansal dağılışı. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 2(2), 1–12.
49. Phillips, P. C. B. & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335–346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
50. Preston, S. H. & Hartnett, C. S. (2010). The future of american fertility. Demography and the Economy (p. 11-36). University of Chicago Press.
51. Rodríguez, F. & Rodrik, D. (2001). Trade policy and economic growth: A skeptic’s guide to the cross-national evidence. NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, 15, 261–338. National Bureau of Economic Research.
52. Saguin, K. (2021). No flat, No child in Singapore: Cointegration analysis of housing, income, and fertility. ADBI Working Papers, 1231.
53. Savaş, V. (1997). İktisatın tarihi. Siyasal Kitabevi, Ankara.
54. Schneider, D. (2015). The great recession, fertility, and uncertainty: Evidence from the United States. Journal of Marriage and Family, 77(5), 1144–1156.
55. Schultz. (2005). Bloom’s Taxonomy: Original and Revised. M. Orey (Ed.), Emerging perspectives on learning, teaching, and technology.
56. Schwert, G. W. (1989). Why does stock market volatility change over time?. The Journal of Finance, 44(5), 1115–1153. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1989.tb02647.x
57. Selim, S. & Bilgin, D. (2021). Türkiye’de doğurganlık, göç ve mekânsal etkileşim: Seçicilik hipotezi kapsamında bir analiz. Coğrafya Dergisi / Journal of Geography, (43), 111–125. https://doi.org/10.26650/JGEOG2021-893270
58. Selim, S. & Üçdoğruk, Ş. (2005). Türkiye’de doğurganlık: Kalite-miktar yaklaşımı. Nüfusbilim Dergisi, 27, 49–66.
59. Seli̇m, S. & Üçdoğruk, Ş. (2016). Sayma veri modelleri ile çocuk sayısı belirleyicileri: Türkiye’deki seçilmiş iller için sosyoekonomik analizler. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 18(2), Article 2.
60. Sobotka, T., Skirbekk, V. & Philipov, D. (2011), Economic recession and fertility in the developed world. Population and Development Review, 37, 267-306. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00411.x
61. Thévenon, O. (2011). Family policies in OECD countries: A comparative analysis. Population and Development Review, 37(1), 57–87. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00390.x
62. Ullah, M. A., Moin, A. T., Araf, Y., Bhuiyan, A. R., Griffiths, M. D. & Gozal, D. (2020). Potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on future birth rate. Frontiers in Public Health, 8. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.578438
63. Vidal, A. (1994). La pensée démographique—Doctrines, théories et politiques de population. Janvier.
64. Vignoli, D., Guetto, R., Bazzani, G., Pirani, E. & Minello, A. (2020). A reflection on economic uncertainty and fertility in Europe: The Narrative Framework. Genus, 76. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-020-00094-3
65. White, M. J., Muhidin, S., Andrzejewski, C., Tagoe, E., Knight, R. & Reed, H. (2008). Urbanization and fertility: An event-history analysis of coastal Ghana. Demography, 45(4), 803–816. https://doi.org/10.1353/dem.0.0035
66. Yang, G. & Zhang, L. (2023). Relationship between aging population, birth rate and disposable income per capita in the context of COVID-19. Plos One, 18(8), e0289781.
67. Yavuz, S. (2012). Fas, Mısır ve Türkiye’de adelosan doğurganlığının karşılaştırmalı bir analizi. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 10(2), Article 2.
68. Zhang, X. & Hao, X. (2024). How does fertility pressure affect Chinese working women? Negative effects of fertility anxiety on women’s work engagement. Current Psychology, 43, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-024-05661-x
69. Zivot, E. & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251–270. https://doi.org/10.2307/1391541
70. Zuanna, G. D. (2007). Social mobility and fertility. Demographic Research, 17, 441–464.