Ekonomik Dinamikler ve Doğurganlık Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye'de Varoluşsal Bir Sorun Olarak Bebek Kıtlığı

Öz

Malthus ve Marx'ın klasik görüşlerinden Dumont ve Becker'in çağdaş perspektiflerine kadar uzanan teorisyenler, ekonomik faktörlerin doğurganlık eğilimlerini açıklamadaki önemli rolünü sürekli olarak vurgulamış, demografik dinamiklerin incelenmesinde tarihsel ve modern ekonomik teorileri birbirine bağlayan bir anlatı oluşturmuşlardır. Bu çalışma, 1990'dan 2022'ye kadar ekonomik faktörlerin Türkiye'deki doğurganlık oranları üzerindeki etkisini inceleyerek, tüketici fiyat endeksi, kişi başına düşen GSYİH ve GSYİH'nın yüzdesi olarak sosyal koruma harcamalarındaki değişimlerin nüfus eğilimlerini nasıl etkilediğine odaklanmaktadır. Serilerde birden fazla yapısal kırılma gözlemlendiği için Clemente Montanes Reyes, Hatemi-J ve Maki analizleri gerçekleştirilmiştir. Çalışmanın sonuçları, Türkiye'deki doğurganlık oranının ekonomik faktörlerden önemli ölçüde etkilenmediğini göstermektedir. Bu değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli bir eşbütünleşme kanıtı bulunamamıştır. Dolayısıyla, ekonomik faktörlerdeki değişikliklerin doğurganlık oranı üzerinde çok az veya ihmal edilebilir düzeyde doğrudan bir etkisi vardır. Bu araştırma, hem gelişmiş hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerde doğurganlık politikalarının şekillendirilmesi için önemli bir kıstas sunmakta, ekonomik gelişmenin nüfus eğilimlerini nasıl etkilediğini kapsamlı bir şekilde incelemektedir. Bu sonuçlar, doğurganlığın karmaşık dinamiklerini ortaya koymakta ve artan kadın işgücüne katılımı, çocuk bakım maliyetlerini, doğurganlık kaygısını ve iş-aile çatışmasının doğurganlık düşüşü üzerindeki etkilerini anlamanın önemini vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Doğurganlık hızı
• Ekonomik Faktörler
• Bebek kıtlığı

The Relationship Between Economic Dynamics and Fertility: As an Existential Issue of Baby Shortage in Türkiye

Abstract

Spanning from the classical insights of Malthus and Marx to the contemporary perspectives of Dumont and Becker, theorists have consistently underscored the pivotal role of economic factors in explaining fertility trends, weaving a narrative that connects historical and modern economic theories in the study of demographic dynamics. This study examines the impact of economic factors on Türkiye's fertility rates from 1990 to 2022, focusing on how changes in the consumer price index, GDP per capita, and social protection expenditure have influenced population trends. As more than one structural break was observed in the series, Clemente Montanes Reyes, Hatemi-J and Maki analyses were carried out. The results of the study do not indicate that the fertility rate in Türkiye is significantly affected by economic factors. No evidence of long-run cointegration between these variables was found. Therefore, changes in economic factors have little or negligible direct impact on the fertility rate. This research offers a crucial benchmark for shaping fertility policies in both developed and developing nations, as it thoroughly examines how economic progress influences population trends. These results highlight the complex dynamics of fertility and underline the need to understand the effects of increased female labor force participation, childcare costs, fertility anxiety and work-family conflict fertility decline.

Keywords

• Fertility rate
• Economic Factors
• Baby shortage

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