Araştırma Makalesi
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Forecasting Fig Production in Turkey by Arima Model

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 3, 16 - 22, 31.12.2021

Öz

Many fruits are grown in Turkey thanks to ecological conditions and climate eligibiliy. Turkey ranks first in the world in the production and export of many fruits. Turkey ranks second in fig production and first in fig exports in the world. The purpose of the current study is to forecast the amount of fig production for the period of 2020-2025. To this end, fig production in Turkey in this period was forecasted with Box Jenkins ARIMA model by using fig production data covering the period between 1990 and 2019. According to the results of the study, fig production in Turkey was estimated to be 314659.4 tons in 2025.

Kaynakça

  • Akın, M, Eyduran, SP, 2017a. Forecasting harvest area and production of strawberry using time series analyses. Journal of Agricultural Faculty of Gaziosmanpasa University 34(3):19-27.
  • Akın, M, Eyduran, SP, 2017b. Predicting avocado production in Turkey for 2016–2025 period using time series analyses. Yuzuncu Yil Unıversity Journal of Agricultural Sciences 27(2):252-258.
  • Bars, T, Uçum, İ, Akbay, C, 2018. Turkey hazelnut production projection with ARIMA model. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University Journal of Agriculture and Nature 21(Special Issue):154-160.
  • Başer, U, Bozoğlu, M, Eroğlu, NA,Topuz, BK, 2018. Forecasting chestnut production and export of Turkey using arima model. Turkish Journal of Forecasting 2(2):27-33.
  • Çakan, VA, 2020. Forecasts for Turkey fresh fig production and dried fig export: Arima model approach. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty 17(3):357-368.
  • Çelik, Ş, 2013. Modelling of production amount of nuts fruit by using Box-Jenkins technique. Yuzuncu Yil Unıversity Journal of Agricultural Sciences 23(1):18-30.
  • Eyduran, SP, Akın, M, Eyduran, E, Çelik, Ş, Ertürk, YE, Ercişli, S, 2020. Forecasting banana harvest area and production in Turkey using time series analysis. Erwerbs-Obstbau 62:281-291.
  • FAOSTAT, 2021. Data. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data. (16.04.2021).
  • Hamjah, MA, 2014. Forecasting major fruit crops productions in Bangladesh using Box-Jenkins ARIMA model. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development 5(7):137-142.
  • Hamzaçebi, C, Kutay, F, 2004. Electric consumption forecasting of Turkey using artificial neural networks up to year 2010. Gazi University Journal of Engineering and Architecture 19(3):227-233.
  • Isin, F, Cukur, T, Armagan, G, 2007. Factors affecting of the organic dried fig agriculture system in Turkey. Journal of Applied Sciences 7(5):748-754.
  • Isin, F, Çukur, T, Armağan, G, Çobanoğlu, F, 2004. Dünya Ticaret Örgütü Anlaşmaları Çerçevesinde Avrupa Birliği ile Gümrük Birliği ve Olası Tam Üyelik Açısından Türkiye Taze ve Kuru İncir Dış Satım Olanakları Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Aydın Güçbirliği Yayınları No.1, ISBN:975-512-873-5, Aydın.
  • Karabacak, T, Uzundumlu, AS, 2020. Apricot production forecasts of the leading provinces in 2019-2025 periods. IBAD Journal of Social Sciences (Special Issue): 561-573.
  • Kutlar, A, 2017. Eviews ile Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri. Umuttepe Yayınları, 194s.
  • Özer, OO, İlkdoğan, U, (2013). The world cotton price forecasting by using Box-Jenkins model. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty 10(2):13-20.
  • Topuz, BK, Bozoğlu, M, Başer, U, Eroğlu, NA, 2018. Forecasting of apricot production of Turkey by using Box-Jenkins method. Turkish Journal of Forecasting 2(2): 20-26.
  • TSI (Turkish Statistical Institute), 2021. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=tarim-111&dil=1. (07.04.2021).
  • TSI (Turkish Statistical Institute), 2014. Statictical Indicators 1923-2013. Publication no: 4361, Ankara.
  • Ucal, MŞ, 2006. A brief survey of econometrics model selection criteria. Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences 7(2):41-57.

Forecasting Fig Production in Turkey by Arima Model

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 3, 16 - 22, 31.12.2021

Öz

Ekolojik koşulların ve iklimin uygunluğu sayesinde Türkiye’de birçok meyve türü yetiştirilmektedir. Türkiye birçok meyve türünün üretimi ve ihracatında dünyada ilk sıralarda yer almaktadır. Türkiye dünyada incir üretiminde ikinci, incir ihracatında ise ilk sırada yer almaktadır. Bu araştırmanın amacı, 2020-2025 dönemine ait incir üretim miktarlarının tahmin edilmesidir. Bunun için 1990-2019 dönemlerini kapsayan incir üretim verileri kullanılarak, Box Jenkins ARIMA modeli ile Türkiye'de incir üretimi tahmin edilmiştir. Araştırama sonuçlarına göre Türkiye’de 2025 yılında incir üretimi 314659.4 ton tahmin edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Akın, M, Eyduran, SP, 2017a. Forecasting harvest area and production of strawberry using time series analyses. Journal of Agricultural Faculty of Gaziosmanpasa University 34(3):19-27.
  • Akın, M, Eyduran, SP, 2017b. Predicting avocado production in Turkey for 2016–2025 period using time series analyses. Yuzuncu Yil Unıversity Journal of Agricultural Sciences 27(2):252-258.
  • Bars, T, Uçum, İ, Akbay, C, 2018. Turkey hazelnut production projection with ARIMA model. Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University Journal of Agriculture and Nature 21(Special Issue):154-160.
  • Başer, U, Bozoğlu, M, Eroğlu, NA,Topuz, BK, 2018. Forecasting chestnut production and export of Turkey using arima model. Turkish Journal of Forecasting 2(2):27-33.
  • Çakan, VA, 2020. Forecasts for Turkey fresh fig production and dried fig export: Arima model approach. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty 17(3):357-368.
  • Çelik, Ş, 2013. Modelling of production amount of nuts fruit by using Box-Jenkins technique. Yuzuncu Yil Unıversity Journal of Agricultural Sciences 23(1):18-30.
  • Eyduran, SP, Akın, M, Eyduran, E, Çelik, Ş, Ertürk, YE, Ercişli, S, 2020. Forecasting banana harvest area and production in Turkey using time series analysis. Erwerbs-Obstbau 62:281-291.
  • FAOSTAT, 2021. Data. http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data. (16.04.2021).
  • Hamjah, MA, 2014. Forecasting major fruit crops productions in Bangladesh using Box-Jenkins ARIMA model. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development 5(7):137-142.
  • Hamzaçebi, C, Kutay, F, 2004. Electric consumption forecasting of Turkey using artificial neural networks up to year 2010. Gazi University Journal of Engineering and Architecture 19(3):227-233.
  • Isin, F, Cukur, T, Armagan, G, 2007. Factors affecting of the organic dried fig agriculture system in Turkey. Journal of Applied Sciences 7(5):748-754.
  • Isin, F, Çukur, T, Armağan, G, Çobanoğlu, F, 2004. Dünya Ticaret Örgütü Anlaşmaları Çerçevesinde Avrupa Birliği ile Gümrük Birliği ve Olası Tam Üyelik Açısından Türkiye Taze ve Kuru İncir Dış Satım Olanakları Üzerine Bir Araştırma. Aydın Güçbirliği Yayınları No.1, ISBN:975-512-873-5, Aydın.
  • Karabacak, T, Uzundumlu, AS, 2020. Apricot production forecasts of the leading provinces in 2019-2025 periods. IBAD Journal of Social Sciences (Special Issue): 561-573.
  • Kutlar, A, 2017. Eviews ile Uygulamalı Zaman Serileri. Umuttepe Yayınları, 194s.
  • Özer, OO, İlkdoğan, U, (2013). The world cotton price forecasting by using Box-Jenkins model. Journal of Tekirdag Agricultural Faculty 10(2):13-20.
  • Topuz, BK, Bozoğlu, M, Başer, U, Eroğlu, NA, 2018. Forecasting of apricot production of Turkey by using Box-Jenkins method. Turkish Journal of Forecasting 2(2): 20-26.
  • TSI (Turkish Statistical Institute), 2021. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=tarim-111&dil=1. (07.04.2021).
  • TSI (Turkish Statistical Institute), 2014. Statictical Indicators 1923-2013. Publication no: 4361, Ankara.
  • Ucal, MŞ, 2006. A brief survey of econometrics model selection criteria. Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences 7(2):41-57.
Toplam 19 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ziraat, Veterinerlik ve Gıda Bilimleri
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Figen Çukur 0000-0002-8788-0287

Tayfun Çukur 0000-0003-4273-6449

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 31 Aralık 2021
Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Çukur, F., & Çukur, T. (2021). Forecasting Fig Production in Turkey by Arima Model. Gaziosmanpaşa Bilimsel Araştırma Dergisi, 10(3), 16-22.
AMA Çukur F, Çukur T. Forecasting Fig Production in Turkey by Arima Model. GBAD. Aralık 2021;10(3):16-22.
Chicago Çukur, Figen, ve Tayfun Çukur. “Forecasting Fig Production in Turkey by Arima Model”. Gaziosmanpaşa Bilimsel Araştırma Dergisi 10, sy. 3 (Aralık 2021): 16-22.
EndNote Çukur F, Çukur T (01 Aralık 2021) Forecasting Fig Production in Turkey by Arima Model. Gaziosmanpaşa Bilimsel Araştırma Dergisi 10 3 16–22.
IEEE F. Çukur ve T. Çukur, “Forecasting Fig Production in Turkey by Arima Model”, GBAD, c. 10, sy. 3, ss. 16–22, 2021.
ISNAD Çukur, Figen - Çukur, Tayfun. “Forecasting Fig Production in Turkey by Arima Model”. Gaziosmanpaşa Bilimsel Araştırma Dergisi 10/3 (Aralık 2021), 16-22.
JAMA Çukur F, Çukur T. Forecasting Fig Production in Turkey by Arima Model. GBAD. 2021;10:16–22.
MLA Çukur, Figen ve Tayfun Çukur. “Forecasting Fig Production in Turkey by Arima Model”. Gaziosmanpaşa Bilimsel Araştırma Dergisi, c. 10, sy. 3, 2021, ss. 16-22.
Vancouver Çukur F, Çukur T. Forecasting Fig Production in Turkey by Arima Model. GBAD. 2021;10(3):16-22.