What Makes Civil Wars Protracted? A Review of Systemic, Organizational & Individual-Level Factors

Öz

This study investigates the factors behind the increasing prevalence of intrastate conflicts since World War II, contrasting with the global decline in interstate wars, particularly in the developing world. While advancements in technology, society, and economy have facilitated a reduction in interstate conflicts, intrastate wars have persisted due to a decline in their terminations rather than an increase in their onsets. The study attributes this prolongation to systemic, organizational, and individual-level factors. At the systemic level, processes such as decolonization, Cold War interventions, and the post-Cold War multipolar order has established conditions that foster civil wars, often exacerbated by external interventions driven by power dynamics and competitive interests. Additionally, neoliberal economic policies have fragmented the global economy and marginalized the Global South, fostering the emergence of “regional conflict complexes” reliant on illicit economies. Organizationally, factors such as state capacity, geographical features, and resource availability enhance the resilience of rebel groups, particularly in rugged, resource-rich territories near international borders that facilitate contraband access and enable evasion of state control. Furthermore, the quality of leadership and cohesion within insurgent groups significantly affect conflict duration, as elite manipulation and factionalism can obstruct peace efforts. Lastly, at the individual level, motivations shaped by grievances associated with ethnic, political, or economic marginalization, alongside economic incentives for private gain, largely sustain involvement in armed conflicts. The study concludes that a comprehensive understanding of these complex factors is crucial for developing effective policy strategies to reduce conflict durations, advancing theoretical and practical approaches to civil war resolution.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Intrastate Conflicts
• Civil Wars
• Civil War Duration
• Persistent Civil Wars
• Conflict Resolution

İç Savaşları Uzatan Nedir? Sistemsel, Örgütsel ve Bireysel Düzeydeki Faktörlerin Bir Değerlendirmesi

Öz

Bu çalışmada, İkinci Dünya Savaşı’ndan bu yana, özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde, devletlerarası savaşlardaki küresel düşüşün aksine, devlet içi çatışmaların artan yaygınlığının ardındaki faktörler araştırılmaktadır. Teknolojik, toplumsal ve ekonomik ilerlemeler devletlerarası çatışmaların azalmasını kolaylaştırırken devlet içi savaşlar, meydana gelmelerindeki artıştan ziyade sonlandırılmalarındaki düşüş nedeniyle yaygınlığını korumaktadır. Çalışma, iç savaşların uzamasını sistemsel, örgütsel ve bireysel düzeydeki faktörlere bağlamaktadır. Sistemsel düzeyde, dekolonizasyon, Soğuk Savaş müdahaleleri ve Soğuk Savaş sonrası çok kutuplu düzen gibi süreçler, genellikle güç dinamikleri ve rekabetçi çıkarlar tarafından yönlendirilen, sıklıkla dış müdahalelerle şiddetlenen, iç savaşları teşvik eden elverişli koşullar yaratmıştır. Buna ek olarak neoliberal ekonomi politikaları, küresel ekonomiyi parçalamış ve Küresel Güneyi marjinalleştirerek yasadışı ekonomilere dayanan “bölgesel çatışma komplekslerinin” ortaya çıkmasına yol açmıştır. Organizasyonel olarak devlet kapasitesi, coğrafi özellikler ve kaynak mevcudiyeti gibi faktörler, özellikle kaçakçılığa erişimi kolaylaştıran ve devlet kontrolünden kaçmayı mümkün kılan, uluslararası sınırlara yakın engebeli, kaynak zengini bölgelerde isyancı grupların direncini arttırmıştır. Ayrıca elit manipülasyonu ve hizipçilik, barış çabalarını engelleyebileceğinden isyancı gruplar içindeki liderlik ve uyum kalitesi çatışma süresini önemli ölçüde etkilemiştir. Son olarak bireysel düzeyde, kişisel çıkarlara dönük ekonomik teşviklerin yanı sıra etnik, siyasi veya ekonomik marjinalleşmeyle ilişkili şikâyetlerle şekillenen motivasyonlar, silahlı çatışmalara katılımın sürdürülmesini büyük ölçüde etkilemiştir. Çalışma, bu karmaşık faktörlerin kapsamlı bir şekilde anlaşılmasının çatışma sürelerini azaltmaya yönelik etkili politika stratejileri geliştirmek ve iç savaş çözümüne yönelik hem teorik hem de pratik yaklaşımları ilerletmek için önemli olduğu sonucuna varmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Devlet Ici Catismalar
• Ic Savaslar
• Ic Savas Suresi
• Kalici Ic Savaslar
• Catisma Cozumu

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