Frekans oranı yöntemiyle coğrafi bilgi sistemi ortamında heyelan duyarlılık haritasının üretilmesi: Manisa, Demirci, Tekeler Köyü örneği

Öz

Bu çalışmada 2009 yılında meydana gelen ve afet bölgesi olarak ilan edilen Manisa ili, Demirci ilçesi sınırlarında bulunan Tekeleler köyünün heyelan duyarlılık haritası coğrafi bilgi sistemi tabanlı frekans oranı yöntemi kullanılarak üretilmiştir. Heyelan duyarlılık analizinde yağış, eğim, bakı, yükseklik, akarsuya uzaklık, yola uzaklık, arazi kullanımı, litoloji, eğrisellik, topografik nemlilik indeksi, normalize edilmiş fark bitki örtüsü indeksi koşullandırma faktörleri olarak seçilmiştir. Heyelan olan bölgeden Google Earth görüntüleri kullanılarak örnek rastgele noktalar belirlenmiş, belirlenen noktalar %70’i eğitim %30’u test için iki sınıfa bölünmüştür. Üretilen heyelan duyarlılık haritası çok düşük, düşük, orta, yüksek ve çok yüksek olmak üzere beş farklı sınıfa ayrılmıştır. Bu sınıflar içerisinde kalan alanlar sırasıyla tüm alanın %11,36, %39,61, %34,32, %12,89 ve %1,81’ini kapladığı görülmüştür. Heyelan duyarlılık haritasının doğruluğu alıcı işletim karakteristiği eğrisi altında kalan alan dikkate alınarak hesaplanmıştır. AUC değeri başarı oranı %95,14 ve tahmin oranı %94,11 olarak bulunmuştur. Bu çalışma ile frekans oranı yöntemi kullanılarak heyelan duyarlılık haritalarının başarılı bir şekilde üretilebileceği gösterilmiştir. Ayrıca bulunan sonuç haritanın olası muhtemel heyelanlar için bir öngörü niteliğinde olduğu, afet yönetim ve planlama çalışmalarına entegre edilebileceği sonucuna varılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri
• Google Earth Engine
• Frekans Oranı
• Heyelan
• Tekeler köyü

Kaynakça

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