Hücresel otomata markov zincir yöntemi ile kentsel yayılmanın modellenmesi: Kerkük ili örneği

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 1, 58 - 70, 15.04.2022

Abdullah Fadhıl Tuba Kurban

https://doi.org/10.29128/geomatik.852900

Cited By: 2

Öz

Kentsel yayılma küresel bir olgudur ancak Irak gibi gelişmekte olan ülkelerde çok daha hızlı bir şekilde gerçekleşmektedir. Kerkük, kentsel alanlarda hızla artan bir genişlemeye tanık olunan Irak kentlerinden biridir. Bu kentsel yayılma; hızlı nüfus artışı, plansız büyüme ve göç gibi çeşitli faktörlerden kaynaklanmaktadır. Bunun sonucunda kentsel ekosistem bu süreçten önemli ölçüde etkilenmektedir. Bu çalışmada, 2002-2018 yılları arasında Kerkük ilindeki arazi kullanımı/arazi örtüsü değişiklikleri CBS ve uzaktan algılama teknikleri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Tespit edilen değişimler göstermektedir ki en büyük değişiklik %130 oranında bir artışla kentsel alanlarda gerçekleşmiştir. Bununla birlikte tarım arazilerinin %22 ve su alanlarının da %8 oranında genişlediği tespit edilmiştir. Buna karşılık, açık arazi alanında %3 oranında bir azalma olduğu da görülmüştür. Bu aşamadan sonra, gelecekte yaşanacak kentsel yayılma oranının öngörülmesi amacıyla karma bir Hücresel Otomata Markov Zincir modeli oluşturulmuştur. Model mevcut arazi kullanım haritası ile karşılaştırılmıştır ve Kappa istatistikleri kullanılarak doğrulanmıştır. Kappa standart, kappa konum ve kappa nicelik katsayıları sırasıyla 0.8799, 0.9143 ve 0.9154 olarak bulunmuştur. Bu sonuçlar, referans haritası ile karşılaştırma haritası arasında iyi bir örtüşme olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca bu model, 2030 ve 2035 yıllarında gerçekleşmesi muhtemel kentsel yayılmanın tahmin edilmesi için kullanılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Arazi Kullanımı, Arazi Örtüsü, Kentsel Yayılma, Hücresel otomat Markov zincir

Kaynakça

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