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Risk Analysis in Innovation System: A Case Study of Production of Vitamin A Cassava Variety among Farmers in Oyo State, Nigeria

Yıl 2017, , 261 - 268, 29.12.2017
https://doi.org/10.13002/jafag4190

Öz

Every innovation is targeted towards adoption - a process which involves several levels of risks. Bio-fortified vitamin A cassava variety is an innovation targeted not only to solve the yield of farmers but to increase the nutritional intake of Nigerian household. The research specifically seeks to investigate the risks involved in the adoption of vitamin A cassava variety, the risk attitude of cassava farmers, and the factors that affect farmers’ risk attitude to the production of vitamin A cassava. A three-stage random sampling procedure was used to select 240 farmers used for the study. Descriptive statistics, Likert scale, safety first utility approach and ordinary least square regression model were used for the analyses. The study revealed that the risks that are involved in the adoption of the cassava variety include animal invasion, price fluctuation, and poor storage facilities. The majority of the farmers were risk-neutral while only 16% were risk-takers. The study further revealed that the significant determinants of risk attitude among farmers were age, income from other activities and estimated annual income. It is therefore recommended that efforts should be geared toward making adequate vitamin A bio-fortified cassava varieties available to young farmers, grazing reserved should be provided to reduce the risks and efforts should be intensified to reduce price volatility for improved Vitamin A cassava.

Kaynakça

  • Antle, J.M. 1987. Econometric Estimation of Producer’s Risk Attitudes. Amer. J. Agric. Econ., 69 (3): 509-522.
  • Ayinde, O. E., (2008). Effect of Socio-Economic Factors on Risk Behaviour of Farming Households: An Empirical Evidence of Small Scale Crop Producers in Kwara State, Nigeria. Agricultural Journal 3 (6): 447-453.
  • Ayinde O.E.; Muchie M., Adenuga A.H., Jesudun M.O., Olagunju F.I. and Adewumi M.O (2012a); “Food Security and Emerging Innovations in Oil Palm Production in Sun State, Nigeria” Pakistan Journal of Nutrition 11 (11): 1009-1013, 2012.
  • Ayinde, O.E., Muchie, M. Adewumi, M.O. and Abaniyan, E.O. (2012b) “Risk Analysis of Gender in Innovation System: A Case Study of Production of Downy Mildew Maize Resistant Variety in Kwara State, Nigeria Obeche Journal 30(1): 459-465, ISSN 0078-2912459.
  • Baumol, W.J. (1963) “An expected Gain-Confidence Limit Creiterion for Portfolio Selection” Management Science, 10:174-182.
  • Bernouli, D. (1738) Exposition of a new theory on the measurement of risk English translation of the Latin by L. Somer, Econometrica 22:23-36, 1954.
  • Binswanger, H. P. (1980) “Attitude toward Risk: Experimental Measurement in Rural India” American Journal of Agric. Economics 62(1): 395-407.
  • Chamber, R. G. (2015) "On Marginal-Risk Behavior " Amer. J. Agric. Econ., first published online on June 11, 2015 downloaded on October 6, 2015, at http:\\ajae.oxfordjournal.org.
  • Dadzie, S.K.N., and Acquah, H..(2012) Attitudes Toward Risk and Coping Responses: The Case of Food Crop Farmers at Agona Duakwa in Agona East District of Ghana International Journal of Agriculture and Forestry 2(2): 29-37 DOI: 10.5923/j.ijaf.20120202.06.
  • Das, N., and Sarker, D., (2008). Analysis of Risk behaviour of Households: Evidence from Gender sensitive JFM programme in West Bengal. Working Paper No. 01.
  • http://www.mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/15220/1/01/._paper_on_risk_under_forest.pdf Retrieve August 11, 2010.
  • Diagne, A., S. A. Adekambi, F. P. Simtowe And G. Biaou, (2009) The Impact Of Agricultural Technology Adoption On Poverty: The Case of Nerica Rice Varieties in Benin. A shorter version of the paper is being presented as contributed paper at the 27th Conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists. August 16-22, 2009. Beijing, China.
  • Dillion, John, L. (1971) “An Expository Review of Bernoullian Theory in Agriculture: Is Utility Futility?” Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics 39: 3-80.
  • Dillon, J.L., and Scandizzo, P.L. (1978). Risk Attitudes of Subsistence Farmers in Northeas Brazil: A Sampling Approach. Amer. J. Agric. Econ., 60 (3): 425-435. doi: 10.2307/1239939.
  • Drucker, P.F., (1998). The discipline of innovation. Havard Business. Review Edquist C (Ed) 1997, system innovation. Technology institution and organization printer Publisher London UK.
  • Fackler, P.L., (1991). Modelling interdependencies: And approach into simulation and elicitation. Am. J. Agric. Econ., 73: 1091-1098.
  • FAOSTAT. (2017). FAO Statistics online database. Available at http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC. Accessed January 26th, 2017.
  • Giroh, D.Y., Adebayo, E.F. and Jongur, A.A.U. (2013) Analysis of Labour Productivity and Constraints of Rubber Latex Exploitation among Smallholder Rubber Farmers in The Niger Delta Region of Nigeria. Global Journal of Agricultural Research 1(3):16-26, December 2013 Published by European Centre for Research Training and Development UK (www.ea-journals.org).
  • Hildreth, C. and Knowles, G. J. (1982) Some estimation of Farmer’s Utility Functions, University of Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station Technical Bulletin 335.
  • Hotz C. and McClafferty C., (2007) “From Harvest to Health: Challenges for Developing Biofortified Staple Foods and Determining Their Impact on Micronutrient Status,” Food and Nutrition Bulletin: 28(2):1776- 1783.
  • Just, D. R and Lybbert, J. J. (2009): "Risk Averters that love Risk? Marginal Risk Aversion in Comparison to a Reference Gamble" Amer. J. Agric. Econ., 91 (3): 12 -26.
  • Lin, W., and Chang, (1978). Specification of Bernoullian utility function in decision analysis. Agricultural Economics Research 30:30-36.
  • Lichtenstain, S., Fisch-off, B. and Philips, L.D (1982) Calibration of Probabilities: The State of art to 1980. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A Tversky (eds), Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press, 306-334.
  • Lindley D. V (1985) Making Decisions (Second edition). Wiley-London.
  • Lukuyu, B., Okike, I., Duncan, A., Beveridge, M., & Blümmel, M. (2014). Use of Cassava in Livestock and Aquaculture Feeding Programs.
  • Moscardi, E. and de Janvry, A., (1977). Attitudes toward risk among peasants; An econometric approach. American Journal of Agricultural. Economics. 59(4): 710-716.
  • Morton, D.C., R.S. DeFries, Y.E. Shimabukuro, L.O. Anderson, E. Arai, F.D.B. Espirito-Santo, R. Freitas and J. Morisette, (2006). Cropland 15expansion changes deforestation dynamics in the southern Brazilian Amazon, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 103: 14637-14641.
  • Nwabu G.; Wilfred M.; and Hezron N. (2006) “Does Adoption of Improved Maize Varieties Reduce Poverty? Evidence from Kenya: Poster paper prepared for presentation at the International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference, Gold Coast, Australia, August 12-18, 2006.
  • Olarinde L.O, Manyong V.M., and Akintola J.O., (2007). Attitudes towards risk among maize farmers in the dry savanna zone of Nigeria: some prospective policies for improving food production: African Journal of Agricultural Research Vol. 2 (8), 399-408.
  • Pyle, D. and S. Turnovaky (1970) “Safety First and Expected Utility Maximization in Man-Standard Deviation Portfolio Analysis” Rev. of Economics and Statistics 52: 72-81.
  • Quiggin, J. (1993). Generalized expected utility theory: The rank-dependent model. Dordrecht: Kluwer.
  • Roses, J. and Hennessy, D. A. (2003) "Tests for the Role of Risk Aversion Input Use " Amer. J. Agric. Econ., 85(1): 30-43.
  • Roumasset, J.A., Boussard, J.N., and Singh, I. (1979) Risk, uncertainty, and agricultural development. Laguna, Southeast Asia Regional Centre for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture.
  • Roy, A. (1952) “Safety First and the Holding of Assets” Econometrica 20 (1952): 431-49.
  • Saha, A.; Shumway, R. and Talpaz, H. (1994) Joint estimation of risk preference structure and technology using expo-power utility. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 76:173-184.
  • Sayre, R, Beeching, J. R., Cahoon, E. B., Egesi, C., Fauquet, C., Fellman J., Fregene M., Gruissem, W., Mallowa, S., Manary, M., Maziya-Dixon, B., Mbanaso, A., Schachtman, D. P., Siritunga, D., Taylor, N., Vanderschuren, H. and P. Zhang (2011): The BioCassava plus Programme: Biofortification of Cassava for Sub-Saharan Africa. Annu Rev Plant Biol. 62:251-72. doi:10.1146/annurev-arplant-042110-103751.
  • Tumuhimbise, G. A., Namutebi, A., Turyashemererwa, F., & Muyonga, J. (2013). Provitamin A Crops: Acceptability, Bioavailability, Efficacy and Effectiveness. Food and Nutrition Sciences, 4(April), 430–435. http://doi.org/10.4236/fns.2013.44055
  • Van Lehthe J. (1993) The Use of Proper Scoring Ruler of Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions. DSWO Press, Leiden University Leiden, The Netherlands.
  • Von Neumann, J. and O. Morgerstern (1947). Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour, Princeton University Press Princeton.
  • Young, D.L. (1979) Risk preferences of agricultural producers: Their use in extension and research. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 61:1063-10.
Yıl 2017, , 261 - 268, 29.12.2017
https://doi.org/10.13002/jafag4190

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Antle, J.M. 1987. Econometric Estimation of Producer’s Risk Attitudes. Amer. J. Agric. Econ., 69 (3): 509-522.
  • Ayinde, O. E., (2008). Effect of Socio-Economic Factors on Risk Behaviour of Farming Households: An Empirical Evidence of Small Scale Crop Producers in Kwara State, Nigeria. Agricultural Journal 3 (6): 447-453.
  • Ayinde O.E.; Muchie M., Adenuga A.H., Jesudun M.O., Olagunju F.I. and Adewumi M.O (2012a); “Food Security and Emerging Innovations in Oil Palm Production in Sun State, Nigeria” Pakistan Journal of Nutrition 11 (11): 1009-1013, 2012.
  • Ayinde, O.E., Muchie, M. Adewumi, M.O. and Abaniyan, E.O. (2012b) “Risk Analysis of Gender in Innovation System: A Case Study of Production of Downy Mildew Maize Resistant Variety in Kwara State, Nigeria Obeche Journal 30(1): 459-465, ISSN 0078-2912459.
  • Baumol, W.J. (1963) “An expected Gain-Confidence Limit Creiterion for Portfolio Selection” Management Science, 10:174-182.
  • Bernouli, D. (1738) Exposition of a new theory on the measurement of risk English translation of the Latin by L. Somer, Econometrica 22:23-36, 1954.
  • Binswanger, H. P. (1980) “Attitude toward Risk: Experimental Measurement in Rural India” American Journal of Agric. Economics 62(1): 395-407.
  • Chamber, R. G. (2015) "On Marginal-Risk Behavior " Amer. J. Agric. Econ., first published online on June 11, 2015 downloaded on October 6, 2015, at http:\\ajae.oxfordjournal.org.
  • Dadzie, S.K.N., and Acquah, H..(2012) Attitudes Toward Risk and Coping Responses: The Case of Food Crop Farmers at Agona Duakwa in Agona East District of Ghana International Journal of Agriculture and Forestry 2(2): 29-37 DOI: 10.5923/j.ijaf.20120202.06.
  • Das, N., and Sarker, D., (2008). Analysis of Risk behaviour of Households: Evidence from Gender sensitive JFM programme in West Bengal. Working Paper No. 01.
  • http://www.mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/15220/1/01/._paper_on_risk_under_forest.pdf Retrieve August 11, 2010.
  • Diagne, A., S. A. Adekambi, F. P. Simtowe And G. Biaou, (2009) The Impact Of Agricultural Technology Adoption On Poverty: The Case of Nerica Rice Varieties in Benin. A shorter version of the paper is being presented as contributed paper at the 27th Conference of the International Association of Agricultural Economists. August 16-22, 2009. Beijing, China.
  • Dillion, John, L. (1971) “An Expository Review of Bernoullian Theory in Agriculture: Is Utility Futility?” Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics 39: 3-80.
  • Dillon, J.L., and Scandizzo, P.L. (1978). Risk Attitudes of Subsistence Farmers in Northeas Brazil: A Sampling Approach. Amer. J. Agric. Econ., 60 (3): 425-435. doi: 10.2307/1239939.
  • Drucker, P.F., (1998). The discipline of innovation. Havard Business. Review Edquist C (Ed) 1997, system innovation. Technology institution and organization printer Publisher London UK.
  • Fackler, P.L., (1991). Modelling interdependencies: And approach into simulation and elicitation. Am. J. Agric. Econ., 73: 1091-1098.
  • FAOSTAT. (2017). FAO Statistics online database. Available at http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QC. Accessed January 26th, 2017.
  • Giroh, D.Y., Adebayo, E.F. and Jongur, A.A.U. (2013) Analysis of Labour Productivity and Constraints of Rubber Latex Exploitation among Smallholder Rubber Farmers in The Niger Delta Region of Nigeria. Global Journal of Agricultural Research 1(3):16-26, December 2013 Published by European Centre for Research Training and Development UK (www.ea-journals.org).
  • Hildreth, C. and Knowles, G. J. (1982) Some estimation of Farmer’s Utility Functions, University of Minnesota Agricultural Experiment Station Technical Bulletin 335.
  • Hotz C. and McClafferty C., (2007) “From Harvest to Health: Challenges for Developing Biofortified Staple Foods and Determining Their Impact on Micronutrient Status,” Food and Nutrition Bulletin: 28(2):1776- 1783.
  • Just, D. R and Lybbert, J. J. (2009): "Risk Averters that love Risk? Marginal Risk Aversion in Comparison to a Reference Gamble" Amer. J. Agric. Econ., 91 (3): 12 -26.
  • Lin, W., and Chang, (1978). Specification of Bernoullian utility function in decision analysis. Agricultural Economics Research 30:30-36.
  • Lichtenstain, S., Fisch-off, B. and Philips, L.D (1982) Calibration of Probabilities: The State of art to 1980. In D. Kahneman, P. Slovic and A Tversky (eds), Judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Cambridge University Press, 306-334.
  • Lindley D. V (1985) Making Decisions (Second edition). Wiley-London.
  • Lukuyu, B., Okike, I., Duncan, A., Beveridge, M., & Blümmel, M. (2014). Use of Cassava in Livestock and Aquaculture Feeding Programs.
  • Moscardi, E. and de Janvry, A., (1977). Attitudes toward risk among peasants; An econometric approach. American Journal of Agricultural. Economics. 59(4): 710-716.
  • Morton, D.C., R.S. DeFries, Y.E. Shimabukuro, L.O. Anderson, E. Arai, F.D.B. Espirito-Santo, R. Freitas and J. Morisette, (2006). Cropland 15expansion changes deforestation dynamics in the southern Brazilian Amazon, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA, 103: 14637-14641.
  • Nwabu G.; Wilfred M.; and Hezron N. (2006) “Does Adoption of Improved Maize Varieties Reduce Poverty? Evidence from Kenya: Poster paper prepared for presentation at the International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference, Gold Coast, Australia, August 12-18, 2006.
  • Olarinde L.O, Manyong V.M., and Akintola J.O., (2007). Attitudes towards risk among maize farmers in the dry savanna zone of Nigeria: some prospective policies for improving food production: African Journal of Agricultural Research Vol. 2 (8), 399-408.
  • Pyle, D. and S. Turnovaky (1970) “Safety First and Expected Utility Maximization in Man-Standard Deviation Portfolio Analysis” Rev. of Economics and Statistics 52: 72-81.
  • Quiggin, J. (1993). Generalized expected utility theory: The rank-dependent model. Dordrecht: Kluwer.
  • Roses, J. and Hennessy, D. A. (2003) "Tests for the Role of Risk Aversion Input Use " Amer. J. Agric. Econ., 85(1): 30-43.
  • Roumasset, J.A., Boussard, J.N., and Singh, I. (1979) Risk, uncertainty, and agricultural development. Laguna, Southeast Asia Regional Centre for Graduate Study and Research in Agriculture.
  • Roy, A. (1952) “Safety First and the Holding of Assets” Econometrica 20 (1952): 431-49.
  • Saha, A.; Shumway, R. and Talpaz, H. (1994) Joint estimation of risk preference structure and technology using expo-power utility. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 76:173-184.
  • Sayre, R, Beeching, J. R., Cahoon, E. B., Egesi, C., Fauquet, C., Fellman J., Fregene M., Gruissem, W., Mallowa, S., Manary, M., Maziya-Dixon, B., Mbanaso, A., Schachtman, D. P., Siritunga, D., Taylor, N., Vanderschuren, H. and P. Zhang (2011): The BioCassava plus Programme: Biofortification of Cassava for Sub-Saharan Africa. Annu Rev Plant Biol. 62:251-72. doi:10.1146/annurev-arplant-042110-103751.
  • Tumuhimbise, G. A., Namutebi, A., Turyashemererwa, F., & Muyonga, J. (2013). Provitamin A Crops: Acceptability, Bioavailability, Efficacy and Effectiveness. Food and Nutrition Sciences, 4(April), 430–435. http://doi.org/10.4236/fns.2013.44055
  • Van Lehthe J. (1993) The Use of Proper Scoring Ruler of Eliciting Subjective Probability Distributions. DSWO Press, Leiden University Leiden, The Netherlands.
  • Von Neumann, J. and O. Morgerstern (1947). Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour, Princeton University Press Princeton.
  • Young, D.L. (1979) Risk preferences of agricultural producers: Their use in extension and research. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 61:1063-10.
Toplam 40 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Opeyemi Eyitayo Ayınde Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Aralık 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2017

Kaynak Göster

APA Ayınde, O. E. (2017). Risk Analysis in Innovation System: A Case Study of Production of Vitamin A Cassava Variety among Farmers in Oyo State, Nigeria. Journal of Agricultural Faculty of Gaziosmanpaşa University (JAFAG), 34(3), 261-268. https://doi.org/10.13002/jafag4190