Forecasting Reference Evapotranspiration by ARIMA Approach

Abstract

The effort in the study is on forecasting reference evapotranspiration (ETo) by the SARIMA models. This was accomplished by using monthly ETo dataset obtained based on some parameters from meteorology station of Konya province. Stationary of the ETo dataset was fulfilled with differencing. Three SARIMA models that provides all conditions for the stationary data set were identified. The models have very close parsimony values depending on AIC and SBC criteria.

Keywords

• Reference Evapotranspiration
• ARIMA approach
• AIC
• SBC

Referans Evapotrasprasyonun Tahmin Edilmesinde ARIMA Yaklaşımı

Öz

Çalışmadaki amaç SARIMA modellerle referans evapotranspırasyonun (ETo) tahmin edilmesi üzerinedir. Bu Konya meteoroloji istasyonunun bazı parametrelerine bağlı olarak elde edilen aylık ETo veri seti kullanılarak gerçekleştirilmiştir. ETo veri setinin durağanlığı fark alınarak sağlanmıştır. Durağan seri için bütün koşulları yerine getiren üç SARIMA modeli tanımlanmıştır. Bu modeller AIC ve SBC kriterlerine göre çok yakın tutumluluk (parsimony) değerlerine sahip olmuşlardır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Referans Evapotranspirasyon
• ARIMA Yaklaşımı
• AIC
• SBC

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