Impact of Change Point Presence in Extreme Rainfall Series on Hydrological Design

Abstract

The study was conducted to on analyze the variations in maximum rainfall data sequences and the impact of change on these datasets through frequency analysis. This goal was achieved with Pettitt test considered in the detection of change-point and, with Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for frequency analysis. Based on the GEV distribution, quantile values at different return periods were estimated for two data sets before and after the change-point for each site. The couple of quantile at each return period had a significant differences. It was emphasized that it was imperative to eliminate the change in data in obtaining reliable data required in the design of hydraulic projects. When the double-mass curve method was applied to data with a change point, it was confirmed that a reliable data would be able to be reached.

Keywords

• Maximum rainfall
• change-point
• Pettitt test
• GEV distribution

Kaynakça

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