Araştırma Makalesi
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Manufacturing Industries’ Dynamics in Türkiye

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 72 - 86, 30.12.2024

Öz

The role of structural change in economic growth is well-documented for developed nations, yet studies on developing countries remain scarce. This study seeks to bridge this gap by exploring the influence of structural change on labor productivity in Turkey’s manufacturing sector at the 4-digit industry level from 2010 to 2015. Using microdata from the Turkish Statistical Institute's Annual Industry and Service Statistics, classified by NACE Rev.2, and covering 59214 firms, we apply the shift-share method. The results indicate that structural change exerted a drag on economic growth in this period, while labor productivity growth was largely driven by the within-growth effect

Kaynakça

  • Abramovitz, M. (1986). Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind. The Journal of Economic History, 46(2), 385-406. doi: 10.1017/s0022050700046209.
  • Alvarez-Cuadrado, F., Van Long, N., & Poschke, M. (2017). Capital-labor substitution, structural change and growth. Theoretical Economics 12(3), 1229-1266.
  • Andersen, ES. (2004). Population thinking, Price’s equation and the analysis of economic evolution. Evol Inst Econ Rev, 1(1), 127–148.
  • Andersen, ES., Holm, JR. (2014). The signs of change in economic evolution: An analysis of directional, stabilizing and diversifying selection based on Price’s equation. J Evol Econ, 24(2), 291–316.
  • Atiyas, İ., Ozan, B. (2013). Structural change and industrial policy in Turkey, REF Working, 2013-3, from http://ref.sabanciuniv. edu/sites/ref.sabanciuniv.edu/files/str_ch_refwp.pdf.
  • Baily, M. N., Bartelsman, E. J., Haltiwanger, J. C. (2001). Labor productivity: structural change and cyclical dynamics. Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(3), 420-433.
  • Caselli, F., & Coleman II, W. (2001). The U.S. Structural Transformation and Regional Convergence: A Reinterpretation. Journal of Political Economy, 109(3), 584-616. doi: 10.1086/321015.
  • Denison, E.F. (1967). Why Growth Rates Differ. Brookings, Washington DC.
  • Dietrich, A. (2011). Does growth cause structural change, or is it the other way around? A dynamic panel data analysis for seven OECD countries. Empirical Economics, 43(3), 915-944. doi: 10.1007/s00181-011-0510-z.
  • Echevarria, C. (1997). Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth. International Economic Review, 38(2), 431. doi: 10.2307/2527382.
  • Fagerberg, J. (2000). Technological progress, structural change and productivity growth: a comparative study. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 11(4), 393-411. doi: 10.1016/s0954-349 x (00)00025-4.
  • Fan, S., Zhang, X., & Robinson, S. (2003). Structural Change and Economic Growth in China. Review of Development Economics, 7(3), 360-377. doi: 10.1111/1467-9361.00196.
  • Herrendorf, B., Herrington, H., Christopher, V. (2013). Sectoral technology and structural transformation. Manuscript: Arizona State University.
  • Holm, JR. (2014). The significance of structural transformation to productivity growth. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 24, 1009–1036.
  • Kaldor, N (1960). Essays on Value and Distribution, Gerald Duckworth and Co., London
  • Kaniovski, S. (2002). On the structural dimension of competitive strategy. Industrial and Corporate Change, 11(3), 557-579. doi: 10.1093/icc/11.3.557.
  • Kruger, J. (2008). The sources of aggregate productivity growth: US manufacturing industries, 1958-1996. Bull Econ Res, 60(4), 405–427.
  • Kuznets, S. (1961). Quantitative Aspects of the Economic Growth of Nations: VI. Long-Term Trends in Capital Formation Proportions. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 9(4, Part 2), 1-124. doi: 10.1086/449936.
  • Kuznets, S. (1971). Economic Growth of Nations: Total Output and Production Structure. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
  • Lewis, W. (1954). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139-191. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9957. 1954.tb00021.x
  • Lin. (2012). New structural economics: A framework for rethinking development and policy. Washington, DC: World Bank.
  • Marx, K. (1885). III: Schematic presentation of accumulation and supplementary remarks. In: Hagemann, H., Landesmann, M., Scazzieri, R. (Eds.), The Economics of Structural Change, Vol. I, Critical Writings. 2003, Edward Elgar, Aldershot.
  • Matsuyama, K. (2008). Structural Change. In S.N. Durlauf & L.E. Blume (eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2 ed., Palgrave Macmillan.
  • McMillan, Margaret, S., Rodriki, D. (2011). Globalization, structural Change and productivity growth. NBER Working, 17143.
  • Meckl, J. (2002). Structural Change and Generalized Balanced Growth. Journal of Economics, 77(3), pp.241-266.
  • Moalla, M. (2020), Mechanısms 0f Schumpeterian Competitıon in Turkısh Manufacturıng Industries, Mersin University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 4(1), pp.121-135.
  • Ngai, L., Pissarides, A. (2007). Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth, American Economic Review, 97, 429–443.
  • Nurske, R. (1953). Problems of Capital Formation in Underdeveloped Countries. Basil Blackwell, Oxford. - References - Scientific Research Publishing. [online] Available at: <https://www.scirp.org/(S(351jmbntvnsjt1aadkposzje))/reference/referencespapers.aspx?referenceid=1359597>.
  • Perez, C. (1985). Microelectronics, long waves and world structural change: New perspectives for developing countries. World Development, 13(3), pp.441-463.
  • Ricardo, D. (1817). On rent. In: Hagemann, H., Landesmann, M., Scazzieri, R. (Eds.), The Economics of Structural Change, Vol. I, Critical Writings. 2003, Edward Elgar, Aldershot.
  • Rodrik, D., McMillan M., Sepulveda C. (2016). Structural Change, Fundamentals, and Growth: A Framework and Case Studies. Washington, DC. International Food Policy Research Institute. 81-100.
  • Rosenberg, N. (1963). Capital goods, technology, and economic growth. In: Hagemann, H., Landesmann, M., Scazzieri, R. (Eds.), The Economics of Structural Change, Vol. I, Critical Writings. Edward Elgar, Aldershot.
  • Rosenstein-Rodan, P. (1943). Problems of Industrialisation of Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. The Economic Journal, 53(210/211), p.202.
  • Rosenstein-Rodan, P. (1961). Notes on the theory of the big-push. In: Ellis, H.S., Wallich, H.C. (Eds.), Economic Development for Latin America. Macmillan, London.
  • Rostow, W.W. (1960). The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-communist Manifesto. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Sachs, J. D., Warner, A. M. (2001). Natural resources and economic development: The curse of natural resources. European Economic Review, 45, 827-838.
  • Smith, A. (1776). In: Campbell, R.H., Skinner, A.S., Todd, W.B. (Eds.), An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1976.
  • Szirmai, A., (2012). Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries 1950–2005. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 23 (December (4)), 406–420.
  • Szirmai, A., Naudé, W., Alcorta, L. (2013). Pathways to Industrialization in the Twenty-First Century: New Challenges and Emerging Paradigms. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199667857.001.000
  • Tregenna, F. (2014). A new theoretical analysis of deindustrialisation. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 38(6), 1373‐1390.
  • Tuncer, İ., Altiok, M. (2011). Türkiye imalat sanayinde yapısal değişim ve üretkenlik: 1980 - 2008 dönemi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi.
  • Tuncer, İ., Moalla, M., (2020a). Structural change and growth prospects in the Turkish manufacturing industry. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 5(1), 1-20.
  • Tuncer, İ., Moalla, M., (2020b). Structural change and aggregate labour productivity in the Turkish non-farm business industries. In Hatirli, S., Koç, Ş. Demirel, O.,Theoretical and applied studies on Turkish economy. IJOPEC, 1, 155-173.
  • UNIDO. (2013). Sustaining employment growth: The role of manufacturing and structural change. Vienna: UNIDO.
  • Timmer, M. and Szirmai, A. (2000). Productivity growth in Asian manufacturing: the structural bonus hypothesis examined. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 11(4), pp.371-392.
  • van Ark, B., Timmer, M. (2003). Asia’s productivity performance and potential: the contribution of sectors and structural change. In: Paper Presented at the RIETI-KEIO Conference on Japanese Economy: Leading East Asia in the 21 century, Tokyo.

Türkiye’de İmalat Sanayilerinin Dinamikleri

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 72 - 86, 30.12.2024

Öz

Ekonomik büyümede yapısal değişimin rolü gelişmiş ülkeler için iyi belgelenmiştir, ancak gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerine yapılan çalışmalar sınırlı kalmaktadır. Bu çalışma, Türkiye'nin imalat sektöründe 2010-2015 yılları arasında 4 haneli sektör düzeyinde yapısal değişimin işgücü verimliliği üzerindeki etkisini inceleyerek bu boşluğu doldurmayı amaçlamaktadır. Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu'nun NACE Rev.2'ye göre sınıflandırılmış Yıllık Sanayi ve Hizmet İstatistikleri’nden elde edilen 59214 işletmeye ait mikro veriler kullanılarak shift-share yöntemi uygulanmıştır. Sonuçlar, bu dönemde yapısal değişimin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumsuz bir etki yarattığını, işgücü verimliliği artışının ise büyük ölçüde sektör içi büyüme etkisinden kaynaklandığını göstermektedir

Kaynakça

  • Abramovitz, M. (1986). Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind. The Journal of Economic History, 46(2), 385-406. doi: 10.1017/s0022050700046209.
  • Alvarez-Cuadrado, F., Van Long, N., & Poschke, M. (2017). Capital-labor substitution, structural change and growth. Theoretical Economics 12(3), 1229-1266.
  • Andersen, ES. (2004). Population thinking, Price’s equation and the analysis of economic evolution. Evol Inst Econ Rev, 1(1), 127–148.
  • Andersen, ES., Holm, JR. (2014). The signs of change in economic evolution: An analysis of directional, stabilizing and diversifying selection based on Price’s equation. J Evol Econ, 24(2), 291–316.
  • Atiyas, İ., Ozan, B. (2013). Structural change and industrial policy in Turkey, REF Working, 2013-3, from http://ref.sabanciuniv. edu/sites/ref.sabanciuniv.edu/files/str_ch_refwp.pdf.
  • Baily, M. N., Bartelsman, E. J., Haltiwanger, J. C. (2001). Labor productivity: structural change and cyclical dynamics. Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(3), 420-433.
  • Caselli, F., & Coleman II, W. (2001). The U.S. Structural Transformation and Regional Convergence: A Reinterpretation. Journal of Political Economy, 109(3), 584-616. doi: 10.1086/321015.
  • Denison, E.F. (1967). Why Growth Rates Differ. Brookings, Washington DC.
  • Dietrich, A. (2011). Does growth cause structural change, or is it the other way around? A dynamic panel data analysis for seven OECD countries. Empirical Economics, 43(3), 915-944. doi: 10.1007/s00181-011-0510-z.
  • Echevarria, C. (1997). Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth. International Economic Review, 38(2), 431. doi: 10.2307/2527382.
  • Fagerberg, J. (2000). Technological progress, structural change and productivity growth: a comparative study. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 11(4), 393-411. doi: 10.1016/s0954-349 x (00)00025-4.
  • Fan, S., Zhang, X., & Robinson, S. (2003). Structural Change and Economic Growth in China. Review of Development Economics, 7(3), 360-377. doi: 10.1111/1467-9361.00196.
  • Herrendorf, B., Herrington, H., Christopher, V. (2013). Sectoral technology and structural transformation. Manuscript: Arizona State University.
  • Holm, JR. (2014). The significance of structural transformation to productivity growth. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 24, 1009–1036.
  • Kaldor, N (1960). Essays on Value and Distribution, Gerald Duckworth and Co., London
  • Kaniovski, S. (2002). On the structural dimension of competitive strategy. Industrial and Corporate Change, 11(3), 557-579. doi: 10.1093/icc/11.3.557.
  • Kruger, J. (2008). The sources of aggregate productivity growth: US manufacturing industries, 1958-1996. Bull Econ Res, 60(4), 405–427.
  • Kuznets, S. (1961). Quantitative Aspects of the Economic Growth of Nations: VI. Long-Term Trends in Capital Formation Proportions. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 9(4, Part 2), 1-124. doi: 10.1086/449936.
  • Kuznets, S. (1971). Economic Growth of Nations: Total Output and Production Structure. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
  • Lewis, W. (1954). Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139-191. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9957. 1954.tb00021.x
  • Lin. (2012). New structural economics: A framework for rethinking development and policy. Washington, DC: World Bank.
  • Marx, K. (1885). III: Schematic presentation of accumulation and supplementary remarks. In: Hagemann, H., Landesmann, M., Scazzieri, R. (Eds.), The Economics of Structural Change, Vol. I, Critical Writings. 2003, Edward Elgar, Aldershot.
  • Matsuyama, K. (2008). Structural Change. In S.N. Durlauf & L.E. Blume (eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2 ed., Palgrave Macmillan.
  • McMillan, Margaret, S., Rodriki, D. (2011). Globalization, structural Change and productivity growth. NBER Working, 17143.
  • Meckl, J. (2002). Structural Change and Generalized Balanced Growth. Journal of Economics, 77(3), pp.241-266.
  • Moalla, M. (2020), Mechanısms 0f Schumpeterian Competitıon in Turkısh Manufacturıng Industries, Mersin University Journal of Social Sciences Institute, 4(1), pp.121-135.
  • Ngai, L., Pissarides, A. (2007). Structural Change in a Multisector Model of Growth, American Economic Review, 97, 429–443.
  • Nurske, R. (1953). Problems of Capital Formation in Underdeveloped Countries. Basil Blackwell, Oxford. - References - Scientific Research Publishing. [online] Available at: <https://www.scirp.org/(S(351jmbntvnsjt1aadkposzje))/reference/referencespapers.aspx?referenceid=1359597>.
  • Perez, C. (1985). Microelectronics, long waves and world structural change: New perspectives for developing countries. World Development, 13(3), pp.441-463.
  • Ricardo, D. (1817). On rent. In: Hagemann, H., Landesmann, M., Scazzieri, R. (Eds.), The Economics of Structural Change, Vol. I, Critical Writings. 2003, Edward Elgar, Aldershot.
  • Rodrik, D., McMillan M., Sepulveda C. (2016). Structural Change, Fundamentals, and Growth: A Framework and Case Studies. Washington, DC. International Food Policy Research Institute. 81-100.
  • Rosenberg, N. (1963). Capital goods, technology, and economic growth. In: Hagemann, H., Landesmann, M., Scazzieri, R. (Eds.), The Economics of Structural Change, Vol. I, Critical Writings. Edward Elgar, Aldershot.
  • Rosenstein-Rodan, P. (1943). Problems of Industrialisation of Eastern and South-Eastern Europe. The Economic Journal, 53(210/211), p.202.
  • Rosenstein-Rodan, P. (1961). Notes on the theory of the big-push. In: Ellis, H.S., Wallich, H.C. (Eds.), Economic Development for Latin America. Macmillan, London.
  • Rostow, W.W. (1960). The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-communist Manifesto. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Sachs, J. D., Warner, A. M. (2001). Natural resources and economic development: The curse of natural resources. European Economic Review, 45, 827-838.
  • Smith, A. (1776). In: Campbell, R.H., Skinner, A.S., Todd, W.B. (Eds.), An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Oxford, Clarendon Press, 1976.
  • Szirmai, A., (2012). Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries 1950–2005. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics 23 (December (4)), 406–420.
  • Szirmai, A., Naudé, W., Alcorta, L. (2013). Pathways to Industrialization in the Twenty-First Century: New Challenges and Emerging Paradigms. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199667857.001.000
  • Tregenna, F. (2014). A new theoretical analysis of deindustrialisation. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 38(6), 1373‐1390.
  • Tuncer, İ., Altiok, M. (2011). Türkiye imalat sanayinde yapısal değişim ve üretkenlik: 1980 - 2008 dönemi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi.
  • Tuncer, İ., Moalla, M., (2020a). Structural change and growth prospects in the Turkish manufacturing industry. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 5(1), 1-20.
  • Tuncer, İ., Moalla, M., (2020b). Structural change and aggregate labour productivity in the Turkish non-farm business industries. In Hatirli, S., Koç, Ş. Demirel, O.,Theoretical and applied studies on Turkish economy. IJOPEC, 1, 155-173.
  • UNIDO. (2013). Sustaining employment growth: The role of manufacturing and structural change. Vienna: UNIDO.
  • Timmer, M. and Szirmai, A. (2000). Productivity growth in Asian manufacturing: the structural bonus hypothesis examined. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 11(4), pp.371-392.
  • van Ark, B., Timmer, M. (2003). Asia’s productivity performance and potential: the contribution of sectors and structural change. In: Paper Presented at the RIETI-KEIO Conference on Japanese Economy: Leading East Asia in the 21 century, Tokyo.
Toplam 46 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Makroekonomik Teori
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Maya Moalla 0000-0003-4076-2790

İsmail Tuncer 0000-0003-0180-7415

Yayımlanma Tarihi 30 Aralık 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 14 Kasım 2024
Kabul Tarihi 28 Aralık 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Moalla, M., & Tuncer, İ. (2024). Manufacturing Industries’ Dynamics in Türkiye. Hitit Ekonomi Ve Politika Dergisi, 4(2), 72-86. https://doi.org//hepdergi.1585382

Hitit Ekonomi ve Politika Dergisi Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı (CC BY NC) ile lisanslanmıştır.