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FED'in Para Politikalarının Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerindeki Etkisi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 243 - 266, 15.10.2021

Öz

Bu çalışmada, ABD Merkez Bankası Federal Rezerv’in (FED) uygulamış olduğu geleneksel ve geleneksel olmayan para politikalarının gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerindeki etkileri Panel VAR yöntemiyle test edilmiştir. Panel VAR modelinde içsel değişkenler olarak kişi başı gelir, enflasyon, dış borç, reel döviz kuru; dışsal değişkenler olarak ise varlık büyüme ve fonlama faizi kullanılmış ve 1993-2020 dönemi analiz edilmiştir. Panel VAR regresyonlarından elde edilen sonuçlara göre FED’in geleneksel olmayan bilanço genişletme politikasının hem kişi başı gelir, hem reel döviz kuru hem de borçluluk açısından gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomileri üzerinde negatif etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Diğer yandan FED’in geleneksel faiz politikasının da gelişmekte olan ülkelerin enflasyonu üzerinde etkili olduğu, Fed fonlama faizini arttırmasının gelişmekte olan ülkelerin kırılganlıklarını, risk primlerini arttırarak enflasyona neden olabileceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Kaynakça

  • Adhikari, D. R. (2017). Has Fed's Policy Hurt the World Economy?. The Journal of Developing Areas, 51(1), 361-372.
  • Ağıralioğlu, S., & Demirci, S. (2021). Fed’in Para Politikalarının Kırılgan Beşli Ülkeleri Üzerinde Yayılma Etkileri: Panel Var Yaklaşımı İle Modelleme. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 13(24), 1-15.
  • Ahmed, S., & Zlate, A. (2014). Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 48, 221-248.
  • Bartkiewicz, P. (2018). The Impact Of Quantitative easıng on emergıng markets-literature review. Financial Internet Quarterly'e-Finanse', 14(4).
  • Bauer, M. D., & Neely, C. J. (2012). International channels of the fed’s unconventional monetary policy. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series, Working Paper 2012-028A.
  • Bhattarai, S., Chatterjee, A., & Park, W. Y. (2021). Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 122, 104031.
  • Bordo, M. D., & Taylor, J. B. (Eds.). (2017). Rules for International Monetary Stability: Past, Present, and Future. Hoover Press.
  • Bowman, D., Londono, J. M., & Sapriza, H. (2015). US unconventional monetary policy and transmission to emerging market economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 55, 27-59.
  • Byrne, J. P., & Fiess, N. (2011). International capital flows to emerging and developing countries: National and global determinants.
  • Chen, H., Cúrdia, V., & Ferrero, A. (2012). The macroeconomic effects of large‐scale asset purchase programmes. The economic journal, 122(564), F289-F315.
  • Chen, Q., Filardo, A., He, D., & Zhu, F. (2016). Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers. Journal of International Money and Finance, 67, 62-81.
  • Clarida, R., Gali, J., & Gertler, M. (2001). Optimal monetary policy in open versus closed economies: an integrated approach. American Economic Review, 91(2), 248-252.
  • Fratzscher, M., Lo Duca, M., & Straub, R. (2018). On the international spillovers of US quantitative easing. The Economic Journal, 128(608), 330-377.
  • Frenkel, J. A., & Razin, A. (1987). Fiscal Policies and the World Economy; An Intertemporal Approach (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1987) (No. 20438). University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Ghosh, A. R., Qureshi, M. S., Kim, J. I., & Zalduendo, J. (2014). Surges. Journal of International Economics, 92(2), 266-285.
  • Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics. Boston, Mass: McGraw-Hill.
  • Hausman, J., & Wongswan, J. (2011). Global asset prices and FOMC announcements. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(3), 547-571.
  • Iacoviello, M., & Navarro, G. (2019). Foreign effects of higher US interest rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 95, 232-250.
  • Jaramillo, L., & Weber, A. (2013). Global spillovers into domestic bond markets in emerging market economies. International Monetary Fund.
  • MacDonald, M., & Popiel, M. K. (2020). Unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy. Open Economies Review, 31, 1061-1115.
  • Miyajima, K., Mohanty, M. S., & Yetman, J. (2014). Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy to Asia: the role of long-term interest rates.
  • Moghadam, R. (2011). Recent Experiences in Managing Capital InflowsCross-Cutting Themes and Possible Policy Framework. Strategy, policy, and review department, International Monetary Fund.
  • Moore, J., Nam, S., Suh, M., & Tepper, A. (2013). Estimating the impacts of US LSAP's on emerging market economies' local currency bond markets (No. 595). Staff Report.
  • Rogers, J. H., Scotti, C., & Wright, J. H. (2014). Evaluating asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policy: A cross-country comparison. FRB International Finance Discussion Paper, (1101).
  • Shariff, N. S. M., & Hamzah, N. A. (2015). A robust panel unit root test in the presence of cross sectional dependence. Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods, 14(2), 14.
  • Tran, T. B. N., & Pham, H. C. H. (2020). The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(8), 165.
  • Uslu, E. (2012). Reel Kurun Denge Değerinden Sapmasında Balassa-Samuelson Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Yayımlanmamış Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası.

The Effect of FED's Monetary Policies on Developing Countries

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 243 - 266, 15.10.2021

Öz

In this study, the effects of the traditional and non-traditional monetary policies implemented by the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) on developing countries were tested with the Panel VAR method. In the panel VAR model, per capita income, inflation, external debt, and real exchange rate as the endogenous variables; and asset growth and funding rate as the exogenous variables were used; in so doing, the 1993-2020 period was analyzed. According to the results obtained from the panel VAR regressions, it has been determined that the non-traditional balance sheet expansion policy of the FED has a negative effect on the economies of developing countries in terms of per capita income, real exchange rate, and indebtedness. On the other hand, it has been concluded that the traditional interest rate policy of the FED is also effective on the inflation of developing countries, and that an increase in the Fed funding rate may cause inflation by increasing the fragility and risk premiums of developing countries.

Kaynakça

  • Adhikari, D. R. (2017). Has Fed's Policy Hurt the World Economy?. The Journal of Developing Areas, 51(1), 361-372.
  • Ağıralioğlu, S., & Demirci, S. (2021). Fed’in Para Politikalarının Kırılgan Beşli Ülkeleri Üzerinde Yayılma Etkileri: Panel Var Yaklaşımı İle Modelleme. Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 13(24), 1-15.
  • Ahmed, S., & Zlate, A. (2014). Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 48, 221-248.
  • Bartkiewicz, P. (2018). The Impact Of Quantitative easıng on emergıng markets-literature review. Financial Internet Quarterly'e-Finanse', 14(4).
  • Bauer, M. D., & Neely, C. J. (2012). International channels of the fed’s unconventional monetary policy. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series, Working Paper 2012-028A.
  • Bhattarai, S., Chatterjee, A., & Park, W. Y. (2021). Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 122, 104031.
  • Bordo, M. D., & Taylor, J. B. (Eds.). (2017). Rules for International Monetary Stability: Past, Present, and Future. Hoover Press.
  • Bowman, D., Londono, J. M., & Sapriza, H. (2015). US unconventional monetary policy and transmission to emerging market economies. Journal of International Money and Finance, 55, 27-59.
  • Byrne, J. P., & Fiess, N. (2011). International capital flows to emerging and developing countries: National and global determinants.
  • Chen, H., Cúrdia, V., & Ferrero, A. (2012). The macroeconomic effects of large‐scale asset purchase programmes. The economic journal, 122(564), F289-F315.
  • Chen, Q., Filardo, A., He, D., & Zhu, F. (2016). Financial crisis, US unconventional monetary policy and international spillovers. Journal of International Money and Finance, 67, 62-81.
  • Clarida, R., Gali, J., & Gertler, M. (2001). Optimal monetary policy in open versus closed economies: an integrated approach. American Economic Review, 91(2), 248-252.
  • Fratzscher, M., Lo Duca, M., & Straub, R. (2018). On the international spillovers of US quantitative easing. The Economic Journal, 128(608), 330-377.
  • Frenkel, J. A., & Razin, A. (1987). Fiscal Policies and the World Economy; An Intertemporal Approach (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1987) (No. 20438). University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Ghosh, A. R., Qureshi, M. S., Kim, J. I., & Zalduendo, J. (2014). Surges. Journal of International Economics, 92(2), 266-285.
  • Gujarati, D. N., & Porter, D. C. (2009). Basic econometrics. Boston, Mass: McGraw-Hill.
  • Hausman, J., & Wongswan, J. (2011). Global asset prices and FOMC announcements. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(3), 547-571.
  • Iacoviello, M., & Navarro, G. (2019). Foreign effects of higher US interest rates. Journal of International Money and Finance, 95, 232-250.
  • Jaramillo, L., & Weber, A. (2013). Global spillovers into domestic bond markets in emerging market economies. International Monetary Fund.
  • MacDonald, M., & Popiel, M. K. (2020). Unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy. Open Economies Review, 31, 1061-1115.
  • Miyajima, K., Mohanty, M. S., & Yetman, J. (2014). Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy to Asia: the role of long-term interest rates.
  • Moghadam, R. (2011). Recent Experiences in Managing Capital InflowsCross-Cutting Themes and Possible Policy Framework. Strategy, policy, and review department, International Monetary Fund.
  • Moore, J., Nam, S., Suh, M., & Tepper, A. (2013). Estimating the impacts of US LSAP's on emerging market economies' local currency bond markets (No. 595). Staff Report.
  • Rogers, J. H., Scotti, C., & Wright, J. H. (2014). Evaluating asset-market effects of unconventional monetary policy: A cross-country comparison. FRB International Finance Discussion Paper, (1101).
  • Shariff, N. S. M., & Hamzah, N. A. (2015). A robust panel unit root test in the presence of cross sectional dependence. Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods, 14(2), 14.
  • Tran, T. B. N., & Pham, H. C. H. (2020). The Spillover Effects of the US Unconventional Monetary Policy: New Evidence from Asian Developing Countries. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 13(8), 165.
  • Uslu, E. (2012). Reel Kurun Denge Değerinden Sapmasında Balassa-Samuelson Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Yayımlanmamış Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası.
Toplam 27 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Mustafa Kangal 0000-0002-4930-8220

Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Ekim 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Kangal, M. (2021). FED’in Para Politikalarının Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerindeki Etkisi. Haliç Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(2), 243-266.