FED'in Para Politikalarının Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler Üzerindeki Etkisi

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 243 - 266, 15.10.2021

Mustafa Kangal

Öz

Bu çalışmada, ABD Merkez Bankası Federal Rezerv’in (FED) uygulamış olduğu geleneksel ve geleneksel olmayan para politikalarının gelişmekte olan ülkeler üzerindeki etkileri Panel VAR yöntemiyle test edilmiştir. Panel VAR modelinde içsel değişkenler olarak kişi başı gelir, enflasyon, dış borç, reel döviz kuru; dışsal değişkenler olarak ise varlık büyüme ve fonlama faizi kullanılmış ve 1993-2020 dönemi analiz edilmiştir. Panel VAR regresyonlarından elde edilen sonuçlara göre FED’in geleneksel olmayan bilanço genişletme politikasının hem kişi başı gelir, hem reel döviz kuru hem de borçluluk açısından gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomileri üzerinde negatif etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Diğer yandan FED’in geleneksel faiz politikasının da gelişmekte olan ülkelerin enflasyonu üzerinde etkili olduğu, Fed fonlama faizini arttırmasının gelişmekte olan ülkelerin kırılganlıklarını, risk primlerini arttırarak enflasyona neden olabileceği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fed, Para Politikası, Panel VAR

The Effect of FED's Monetary Policies on Developing Countries

Öz

In this study, the effects of the traditional and non-traditional monetary policies implemented by the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) on developing countries were tested with the Panel VAR method. In the panel VAR model, per capita income, inflation, external debt, and real exchange rate as the endogenous variables; and asset growth and funding rate as the exogenous variables were used; in so doing, the 1993-2020 period was analyzed. According to the results obtained from the panel VAR regressions, it has been determined that the non-traditional balance sheet expansion policy of the FED has a negative effect on the economies of developing countries in terms of per capita income, real exchange rate, and indebtedness. On the other hand, it has been concluded that the traditional interest rate policy of the FED is also effective on the inflation of developing countries, and that an increase in the Fed funding rate may cause inflation by increasing the fragility and risk premiums of developing countries.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Fed, Monetary Policies, Panel VAR

Kaynakça

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