EMPRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE TURKISH TRADE DEFICIT
Öz
The objective of this
study is to investigate Turkey’s trade deficit through examining the dynamics
of trade balance in order to understand which of the variables deteriorate this
deficit and also in what manner these variables affect trade balance. In this
respect, the real exchange rate effect on trade balance both in the short run
and long run has been examined by using quarterly data set from 1992 to 2011
for Turkey. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is applied with Johansen
co-integration analysis, Granger causality test and generalized impulse
response analysis. According to Johansen cointegration analysis, under trace
and maximum eigenvalue tests variables found cointegrated which means there is
long run relationship among variables. This result enables us to apply VECM.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Akbostancı, E. and G.I. TUNÇ (2002), “Turkish Twin Deficits: an Error Correction Model of Trade Balance,” ERC Working Papers, 01(06).
- Akbostancı, E (2002), “Dynamics of the Trade Balance: The Turkish J-Curve.” ERC Working Papers, 02/05
- Akhtar, M. ve Hilton R. S (1984), “Effects of Exchange Rate Uncertainity on German and U.S. Trade”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Review, 9 Alptekin, V. (2009). “Türkiye’de Dış Ticaret ve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisi: Vektör Otoregresyon (VAR) Analizi Yardımıyla Sınanması” Niğde Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi Cilt: 2, Sayı: 2, s.132-149 Arize, A. C. (1994), “Cointegration Test for a Long-run Relation between the Real Effective Exchange Rate and the Trade Balance.” International Economic Journal Volume 8, No:3 Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1991), “Is There a Long-run Relation Between the Trade Balance and the Real Effective Exchange Rate of LDCs?” Economic Letters, 403- 407.
- Boyd, Derick, and Caporale, Gugielmo Maria and Smith Ron (2001) “Real Ex change Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition,” International Journal of Finance and Economics, 6, 187-200.
- Chinn, M. and Wei, S-J. (2008), “A Faith-based Initiative: Do We Really Know that a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Facilitates Current Account Adjustment?” NBER Working Paper, No. 14420.
- Demir M. and Sever E. (2007) “Türkiye’de Bütçe Açığı ile Cari Açık Arasındaki İlişkilerin VAR Analizi ile İncelenmesi” Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, Nisan 2007, 2(1): 47-63
- Erkılıç, S. (2006), “Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Belirleyicileri (Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi)” (Ankara:Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası İstatistik Genel Müdürlüğü).
- Goldstein, M. and Khan M.S. (1985). “Income and Price Effects in Foreign Trade”, Handbook of International Economics, Vol II: 1041–1105
Ayrıntılar
Birincil Dil
Türkçe
Konular
-
Bölüm
Araştırma Makalesi
Yayımlanma Tarihi
31 Ağustos 2018
Gönderilme Tarihi
20 Ekim 2017
Kabul Tarihi
24 Kasım 2017
Yayımlandığı Sayı
Yıl 2018 Cilt: 3 Sayı: 1
APA
Alpagu, H., & İşıker, M. (2018). EMPRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE TURKISH TRADE DEFICIT. Uluslararası Bilimsel Araştırmalar Dergisi (IBAD), 3(1), 55-78. https://doi.org/10.21733/ibad.2169
AMA
1.Alpagu H, İşıker M. EMPRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE TURKISH TRADE DEFICIT. Uluslararası Bilimsel Araştırmalar Dergisi (IBAD). 2018;3(1):55-78. doi:10.21733/ibad.2169
Chicago
Alpagu, Hasan, ve Murat İşıker. 2018. “EMPRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE TURKISH TRADE DEFICIT”. Uluslararası Bilimsel Araştırmalar Dergisi (IBAD) 3 (1): 55-78. https://doi.org/10.21733/ibad.2169.
EndNote
Alpagu H, İşıker M (01 Ağustos 2018) EMPRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE TURKISH TRADE DEFICIT. Uluslararası Bilimsel Araştırmalar Dergisi (IBAD) 3 1 55–78.
IEEE
[1]H. Alpagu ve M. İşıker, “EMPRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE TURKISH TRADE DEFICIT”, Uluslararası Bilimsel Araştırmalar Dergisi (IBAD), c. 3, sy 1, ss. 55–78, Ağu. 2018, doi: 10.21733/ibad.2169.
ISNAD
Alpagu, Hasan - İşıker, Murat. “EMPRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE TURKISH TRADE DEFICIT”. Uluslararası Bilimsel Araştırmalar Dergisi (IBAD) 3/1 (01 Ağustos 2018): 55-78. https://doi.org/10.21733/ibad.2169.
JAMA
1.Alpagu H, İşıker M. EMPRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE TURKISH TRADE DEFICIT. Uluslararası Bilimsel Araştırmalar Dergisi (IBAD). 2018;3:55–78.
MLA
Alpagu, Hasan, ve Murat İşıker. “EMPRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE TURKISH TRADE DEFICIT”. Uluslararası Bilimsel Araştırmalar Dergisi (IBAD), c. 3, sy 1, Ağustos 2018, ss. 55-78, doi:10.21733/ibad.2169.
Vancouver
1.Hasan Alpagu, Murat İşıker. EMPRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE TURKISH TRADE DEFICIT. Uluslararası Bilimsel Araştırmalar Dergisi (IBAD). 01 Ağustos 2018;3(1):55-78. doi:10.21733/ibad.2169