TİCARETİN KOLAYLAŞTIRILMASI VE İHRACAT PERFORMANSI: TÜRKİYE İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ÇALIŞMA

Öz

Bu çalışmada, ticaretin kolaylaştırılması politikası olarak Yetkilendirilmiş Yükümlü Statüsü’nün (YYS) ihracat performansı üzerindeki etkisi, Türkiye’nin Avrupa Birliği üyesi ülkelere yönelik 2013:9-2024:12 dönemine ait aylık ihracat verileri ile incelenmektedir. Çalışma, Goldstein-Khan geleneksel ihracat talep modeline dayanmakta; dış talep koşulları ithalatçı ülkenin sanayi üretim endeksi ile, fiyat rekabeti ise ikili reel döviz kuru ile temsil edilmektedir. Modeller hem OLS hem de Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) yöntemleri ile tahmin edilmiştir. Bulgular, YYS sahipliğinin ihracat performansı üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif etkisinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu kapsamda çalışma, ticaretin kolaylaştırılması politikalarını makro düzlemde ihracat talebi çerçevesinde ele alarak Türkiye’nin ihracatını artırmaya yönelik kurumsal ve idari mekanizmanın önemine işaret ederek politika tasarımı için çıkarımlar üretmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Ticaretin Kolaylaştırılması
• Yetkilendirilmiş Yükümlü Statüsü
• İhracat Talep Modeli
• OLS
• PPML

TRADE FACILITATION AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY

Öz

In this study, the impact of the Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) scheme, implemented as a trade facilitation policy, on export performance is examined using monthly export data for Turkey’s exports to European Union member states over the period 2013:09-2024:12. The study based on the traditional Goldstein-Khan export demand model; foreign demand conditions are represented by the industrial production index of the importing country, while price competitiveness is captured by the bilateral real exchange rate. The models are estimated using both OLS and Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) methods. The findings indicate that AEO status has a statistically significant and positive effect on export performance. In this context, the study examines trade facilitation policies at the macro level within the export demand framework, highlighting the importance of institutional and administrative mechanisms in enhancing Turkey’s exports and deriving implications for policy design.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Trade Facilitation
• Authorized Economic Operator
• Export Demand Model
• OLS
• PPML

Kaynakça

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