Döngüsel Göçün Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkilerinin Çekim Modeliyle Analizi: Türkiye Örneği

Öz

Döngüsel göçler, göç alan ülke ve göç veren ülke arasında tekrarlayan ileri-geri göçmen hareketleridir. Ülke içinde ve ülkeler arasında döngüsel göçler olabildiği gibi; genellikle yetenek düzeylerine, iş alanlarına ve sektörlere ayrılmış bir şekilde de bu göçler olabilmektedir. Döngüsel göçün gerçekleşmesinde coğrafi yakınlığın yanı sıra, ülkeler arasındaki tarihsel ve kültürel bağlar da büyük önem arz etmektedir. Türkiye’de de bu durum söz konusudur. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ile sınır komşusu olan ülkelerden ve Türkiye’ye kültürel ve tarihsel anlamda yakın olan ülkelerden gelen göçmenlerin ithalat, ihracat hareketlerine ve toplam dış ticaret hacmine etkisi genişletilmiş panel çekim modeli kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Çalışmada kullanılan çekim modelinde Panel GMM Generalized Method of Moments EGLS Estimated Generalized Least Square yöntemiyle 2013-2017 yılları arası dönemi kapsayan 10 ülkenin verileri kullanılmıştır. Çalışma sonucunda Türkiye’ye yapılan döngüsel göçün ithalat ve ihracat üzerinde anlamsız ancak dış ticaret üzerinde olumlu yönde önemli ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkiye sahip olduğu görülmüştür.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• döngüsel göç, ithalat, ihracat, Türkiye Ekonomisi, küreselleşme

Analyzing The Impact of Circular Migration on Foreign Trade with Gravity Model: The Case of Turkey

Öz

Circular migrations are repetitive back and forth migratory movements between a receiving country and a sending country. There may be circular activities within a country or between countries; also these migrations can occur as a divided form into skill levels, job postings and sectors. In addition to geographical proximity, historical and cultural ties between countries have a great importance for a circular migration activity. This is also the case for Turkey. In this study, we investigated the impact on the total volume of foreign trade, export and import activites of migrants, who came from border countries which are close ties with Turkey culturally and historically, by employing extended panel gravity model. In the gravity model of the study, non-interval data of 10 countries covering the period between 2013 and 2017 were used with the panel GMM Generalized Method of Moments EGLS Estimated Generalized Least Square method. The results showed that the circular migration to Turkey is not statistically significant on Turkey’s imports and exports but has a positive and statistically significant effect on foreign trade.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• circular migration, import, export, Turkish Economy, globalization

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