Arnavutluk ve Kuzey Makedonya’nın Avrupa Birliği Üyelik Kriterlerine Uyumunun Karşılaştırmalı Analizi

Öz

Bu araştırmada, Arnavutluk ve Kuzey Makedonya’nın 2020 ile 2024 dönemi incelemeye alınmakta ve Avrupa Birliği üyelik süreçlerini karşılaştırmalı biçimde inceleyerek AB’nin koşulluluk mekanizmasının nasıl işlediğini analiz etmektedir. Yeni müzakere metodolojisinin “temeller” yani hukukun üstünlüğü, yargı bağımsızlığı, temel hakları kapsayacak şekilde merkeze almasıyla her iki ülkenin ilerleme dinamikleri, IBAR eşiğinin aşılması ve AB’nin Ortak Dış ve Güvenlik Politikası’na (CFSP) uyum düzeyi gibi göstergeler üzerinden değerlendirilmeye çalışmaktadır. Arnavutluk, yargı reformu ve CFSP’ye tam uyum sayesinde 2024’te “Temeller” kümesini açmayı başarmıştır. Fakat Kuzey Makedonya anayasal değişiklik koşulunu yerine getiremediği için sürecin tıkandığını ortaya koymaktadır. Araştırma, dışsal koşulluluk sinyallerinin ancak iç siyasal uzlaşma ve kurumsal kapasiteyle desteklendiğinde somut ilerleme üretebildiğini ortaya koymaya çalışmaktadır. Freedom House demokrasi skorları iki ülke için incelemeye alarak normatif uyumun sürdürülebilirliğinin sadece dış baskılarla bağlı değildir. Aynı zamanda iç reform derinliğiyle ilişkili olduğunu vurgulanmaya çalışılmıştır. Sonuç olarak bu çalışma, AB genişleme politikasının etkinliğinin “eşik etkisi”, “sinyal uyumu” ve “kurumsal aracı” mekanizmalarının birlikte işlediği karma bir modelle açıklanabileceğini savunmaktadır. Batı Balkanlar’daki koşulluluk sürecinin asimetrik sonuçlar doğurduğunu ve reformların kalıcılığı için iç kapasite inşasının belirleyici olduğunu da ayrıca vurgulamaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Avrupa Birliği Genişleme Süreci
• Koşulluluk Mekanizması
• Kurumsal Kapasite
• Batı Balkanlar; Arnavutluk
• Kuzey Makedonya

A Comparative Analysis of Albania and North Macedonia’s Compliance with EU Accession Criteria

Öz

This study focuses on Albania and North Macedonia during the 2020-2024 period, offering a comparative analysis of their EU accession paths and examining how the European Union’s conditionality mechanism functions. With the introduction of the new negotiation methodology, which places the “fundamentals” namely the rule of law, judicial independence, and fundamental rights at the core, the research evaluates both countries’ progress dynamics through indicators such as crossing the IBAR threshold and alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP). Albania, through judicial reform and full compliance with the CFSP, succeeded in opening the “Fundamentals” cluster in 2024. North Macedonia, however, did not fulfill the constitutional amendment condition, causing its accession process to come to a standstill. The study argues that EU conditionality produces meaningful results only when accompanied by internal political agreement and institutional strength. Freedom House democracy scores reveal that stable normative convergence depends on solid domestic reform rather than external pressure alone. Building on this insight, the study develops a hybrid explanation of EU enlargement based on the interaction of threshold effects, signal alignment, and institutional agency. The findings show that conditionality in the Western Balkans operates unevenly, with reform sustainability tied closely to institutional capacity.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• European Union Enlargement Process
• Conditionality Mechanism
• Institutional Capacity
• Western Balkans
• Albania
• North Macedonia

Kaynakça

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