Tracing Geopolitical Change Through Documents: A Comparative Content Analysis of Germany’s Arctic Policy Guidelines (2013–2024)

Öz

Research on Arctic securitization centers on the Arctic states; non-Arctic observers have received less systematic attention. This article examines Germany, an Arctic Council observer since 1998, and asks how its official framing of the Arctic changed between 2013 and 2024. It applies qualitative comparative content analysis in MAXQDA to Germany’s three Arctic Policy Guidelines (2013, 2019, 2024). Barry Buzan’s five sectors of security serve as the main codes, supplemented by thematic and perceptual codes; the documents are compared through coverage and normalized co-occurrence densities. The analysis identifies two shifts of different kinds. Between 2013 and 2019, opportunity framing fell from 19 to 8 percent of the text, while threat framing and the military sector barely moved. The balance between threat and opportunity thus tipped two and a half years before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Between 2019 and 2024, military coverage rose from 6 to 15 percent, and its framing moved from preventing an arms race to deterrence. The documents tie only this second shift to the war. Environmental security remained the largest sector throughout. The article adds an observer-state case to Arctic securitization research and shows how measurement separates changes that a before-and-after reading runs together.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Arctic Geopolitics
• Securitization
• Sectors of Security
• Barry Buzan
• Germany
• Arctic Council Observers
• Content Analysis

Belgelerde Jeopolitik Değişimin İzini Sürmek: Almanya’nın Arktik Politika Kılavuzlarının Karşılaştırmalı İçerik Analizi (2013–2024)

Öz

Arktik Bölge’nin güvenlikleştirilmesine dair araştırmalar ağırlıklı olarak Arktik ülkelere odaklanmakta, Arktik-dışı gözlemci ülkeler daha az sistematik ilgi görmektedir. Bu makale, 1998’den bu yana Arktik Konseyi gözlemcisi olan Almanya’yı inceleyerek ülkenin Bölge’ye dair resmî çerçevesinin 2013-2024 döneminde nasıl değiştiğini sorgulamaktadır. Çalışma, Almanya’nın üç Arktik Politika Kılavuzu belgesini (2013, 2019, 2024) MAXQDA ile yürütülen nitel karşılaştırmalı içerik analiziyle incelemektedir. Barry Buzan’ın beş güvenlik sektörü ana kodları oluşturmakta, bunlar tematik ve algısal kodlarla desteklenmekte, belgeler kod kapsamı ve normalleştirilmiş kesişim yoğunlukları üzerinden karşılaştırılmaktadır. Analiz, nitelik olarak farklı iki değişim tespit etmektedir. 2013-2019 arasında fırsat söylemi metnin yüzde 19'undan yüzde 8'ine gerilemiş, tehdit söylemi ve askerî sektör ise neredeyse değişmemiştir. Böylece tehdit ile fırsat arasındaki denge, Rusya’nın Ukrayna’yı işgalinden iki buçuk yıl önce tehdit lehine dönmüştür. 2019-2024 arasında askerî sektörün kapsamı yüzde 6’dan yüzde 15’e yükselmiş, askerî söylem silahlanma yarışını önleme vurgusundan caydırıcılığa geçmiştir. Belgeler yalnızca bu ikinci değişimi savaşla ilişkilendirmektedir. Çevresel güvenlik ise üç belgede de en geniş sektör olmayı sürdürmüştür. Makale, Arktik güvenlikleştirme literatürüne bir gözlemci devlet örneği eklemekte ve ölçümün, öncesi ve sonrası okumalarında birbirine benzeyen değişiklikleri nasıl ayırdığını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Arktik Jeopolitiği
• Güvenlikleştirme
• Güvenlik Sektörleri
• Barry Buzan
• Almanya
• Arktik Konseyi Gözlemcileri
• İçerik Analizi

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