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Geçiş Ekonomilerinde Turizme ve Enerjiye Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Analizi: Panel Nedensellik Testi

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 16, 437 - 457, 01.10.2018

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, geçiş ekonomilerinde 1995-2014 dönemleri arasında turizm gelirleri, enerji tüketimi ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi analiz etmektir. Analiz kapsamında, paneli oluşturan değişkenler arasında ve modelde yatay kesit bağımlılığının olup olmadığı test edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi Emirmahmutoğlu ve Köse 2011 nedensellik testi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, değişkenlerde ve modelde yatay kesit bağımlılığının olduğunu göstermiştir. Nedensellik testinde, geçiş ekonomilerinde; turizm gelirlerinden ekonomik büyümeye doğru “Ermenistan, Kazakistan, Rusya, Arnavutluk ve Macaristan”da; ekonomik büyümeden turizm gelirlerine doğru “Ermenistan, Kazakistan, Ukrayna, Bulgaristan, Hırvatistan, Romanya, Slovakya”da; enerji tüketiminden ekonomik büyümeye doğru; “Azerbaycan, Kırgızistan, Polonya”da; ekonomik büyümeden enerji kullanımına doğru “Kazakistan”da nedensellik ilişkisinin olduğu görülmektedir. Bu bilgiler ışığında turizme dayalı büyüme hipotezinin “Ermenistan, Kazakistan, Rusya, Arnavutluk ve Macaristan”da geçerli olduğu görülmektedir. Enerjiye dayalı büyüme hipotezi “Azerbaycan, Kırgızistan, Polonya”da geçerlidir.

Kaynakça

  • Adhikari, D., Chen, Y. (2012). Energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis for developing countries. Review of Economics & Finance, 3(2), 68-80.
  • Aydın, F. F., (2010). Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 35, 317-340.
  • Bilginoğlu, M. A. (1991), Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Enerji Sorunu ve Alternatif Enerji Politikaları, Erciyes Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 9, 122-147.
  • Brida, J. G., CARRERA, E. J. S., RİSSO, W. A. (2008). Tourism’s Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth. Economics Bulletin, 3(21), 1-8.
  • Breusch, T.S., and Pagan, A.R. (1980), The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Application to Model Specifications in Econometrics, Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-53.
  • Çetintaş, H., Bektaş, Ç. (2008). Türkiye’de Turizm ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Kısa ve Uzun Dönemli İlişkiler. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 19(1), 37-44.
  • Emirmahmutoğlu, F., Köse, N. (2011). Testing for Granger Causality in Heterogeneous Mixed Panels. Economic Modelling, 28, 870-876.
  • Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C., Tadasse, B. (2007), The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa, Department of Economics and Fınance Working Paper Series. Kasperowicz, R. (2014).
  • Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in 12 European Countries: a Panel Data Approach. Journal of International Studies, 7(3): 112-122.
  • Lee, C.C. ve Chang, C.P. (2008). Tourism Development and Economic Growth: A Closer Look At Panels. Tourism Management, 29(1), 180-192.
  • Medlock, K. B. , Soligo, R. (2001), Economic Development and End-Use Energy Demand, The Energy Journal, 22(2), 77- 105.
  • Oh, Chi-Ok (2005). The Contribution of Tourism Devolopment to Economic Growth in the Korean Economy, Tourism Management, 26(1), 3-44.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels, Center for Economic Studies Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Paper no:1229.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50-93.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A., Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11, 105-127.
  • Ridderstaat, J., Croes, R., Nijkamp, P. (2013). Modelling tourism development and long-run economic growth in Aruba (No. 13-145/VIII). Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, 1-22.
  • Seghir, G., Mostefa, B., Abbes, S., Zakarya, G. (2015). Tourism Spending-Economic Growth Causality in 49 Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 1613-1623.
  • Sequeira, N. T., Campos, C. (2005), ”Internatıonal Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach, Working Papers 141. 05, Fondozione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Šimundić, B., Kuliš, Z., Šerić, N. (2016). Tourism and Economic Growth: An Evidence for Latin American and Caribbean Countries. Tourism & Hospitality Industry Congress Proceedings, 457-469.
  • Swamy, P.A.V.B. (1970), Efficient Inference in Random Coefficient Regression Model, Econometrica, 38, 311-23.
  • Tang, C.F., Tan, E.C. (2015). Does Tourism Effectively Stimulate Malaysia's Economic Growth? Tourism Management, 46, 158-163.
  • Usta, C., Berber, M. (2017). Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Sektörel Analizi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 13(13): 173-187.
  • Vafaeirad, M., MOHAMMDİHA, M., GOODARZY, Y. (2015). Energy Consumption and GDP in Selected Asian Countries: A Coıntegrated Panel Analysis. Journal of Asian Scientific Research, 5(4), 177-184.
  • IMF (2000). Transition Economies: An IMF Perspective on Progressand Prospects. https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/ib/2000/110300.htm. Erişim Tarihi: (10.11.2017).

An Analysis of Hypothesis Growth Based on Tourism and Energy in Transition Economies: Panel Causality Test

Yıl 2018, Sayı: 16, 437 - 457, 01.10.2018

Öz

The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between tourism incomes, energy consumption and economic growth in transition economies between 1995 and 2014. Within the scope of the analysis, it was tested whether there is horizontal section dependency between the panel forming variables and the model. The causality relation between variables was analyzed by Emirmahmutoğlu and Köse 2011 causality test. The results of the analysis showed that there is horizontal section dependency in the variables and model. It seems that there is a causal relation in causality test, Transition Economies; from tourism revenues to economic growth: in "Armenia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Albania and Hungary"; from economic growth to tourism income: in "Armenia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Slovakia"; from energy consumption to economic growth: "Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Poland"; in Kazakhstan from economic growth towards energy use. In light of this information, the tourism-based growth hypothesis is valid in Armenia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Albania and Hungary. The energy-based growth hypothesis is also valid in "Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Poland".

Kaynakça

  • Adhikari, D., Chen, Y. (2012). Energy consumption and economic growth: A panel cointegration analysis for developing countries. Review of Economics & Finance, 3(2), 68-80.
  • Aydın, F. F., (2010). Enerji Tüketimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 35, 317-340.
  • Bilginoğlu, M. A. (1991), Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Enerji Sorunu ve Alternatif Enerji Politikaları, Erciyes Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 9, 122-147.
  • Brida, J. G., CARRERA, E. J. S., RİSSO, W. A. (2008). Tourism’s Impact on Long-Run Mexican Economic Growth. Economics Bulletin, 3(21), 1-8.
  • Breusch, T.S., and Pagan, A.R. (1980), The Lagrange Multiplier Test and its Application to Model Specifications in Econometrics, Review of Economic Studies, 47, 239-53.
  • Çetintaş, H., Bektaş, Ç. (2008). Türkiye’de Turizm ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Kısa ve Uzun Dönemli İlişkiler. Anatolia: Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi, 19(1), 37-44.
  • Emirmahmutoğlu, F., Köse, N. (2011). Testing for Granger Causality in Heterogeneous Mixed Panels. Economic Modelling, 28, 870-876.
  • Fayissa, B., Nsiah, C., Tadasse, B. (2007), The Impact of Tourism on Economic Growth and Development in Africa, Department of Economics and Fınance Working Paper Series. Kasperowicz, R. (2014).
  • Economic Growth and Energy Consumption in 12 European Countries: a Panel Data Approach. Journal of International Studies, 7(3): 112-122.
  • Lee, C.C. ve Chang, C.P. (2008). Tourism Development and Economic Growth: A Closer Look At Panels. Tourism Management, 29(1), 180-192.
  • Medlock, K. B. , Soligo, R. (2001), Economic Development and End-Use Energy Demand, The Energy Journal, 22(2), 77- 105.
  • Oh, Chi-Ok (2005). The Contribution of Tourism Devolopment to Economic Growth in the Korean Economy, Tourism Management, 26(1), 3-44.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels, Center for Economic Studies Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Paper no:1229.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142, 50-93.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A., Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Section Independence. Econometrics Journal, 11, 105-127.
  • Ridderstaat, J., Croes, R., Nijkamp, P. (2013). Modelling tourism development and long-run economic growth in Aruba (No. 13-145/VIII). Tinbergen Institute Discussion Paper, 1-22.
  • Seghir, G., Mostefa, B., Abbes, S., Zakarya, G. (2015). Tourism Spending-Economic Growth Causality in 49 Countries: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Procedia Economics and Finance, 23, 1613-1623.
  • Sequeira, N. T., Campos, C. (2005), ”Internatıonal Tourism and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach, Working Papers 141. 05, Fondozione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  • Šimundić, B., Kuliš, Z., Šerić, N. (2016). Tourism and Economic Growth: An Evidence for Latin American and Caribbean Countries. Tourism & Hospitality Industry Congress Proceedings, 457-469.
  • Swamy, P.A.V.B. (1970), Efficient Inference in Random Coefficient Regression Model, Econometrica, 38, 311-23.
  • Tang, C.F., Tan, E.C. (2015). Does Tourism Effectively Stimulate Malaysia's Economic Growth? Tourism Management, 46, 158-163.
  • Usta, C., Berber, M. (2017). Türkiye’de Enerji Tüketimi Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Sektörel Analizi. Ekonomik ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 13(13): 173-187.
  • Vafaeirad, M., MOHAMMDİHA, M., GOODARZY, Y. (2015). Energy Consumption and GDP in Selected Asian Countries: A Coıntegrated Panel Analysis. Journal of Asian Scientific Research, 5(4), 177-184.
  • IMF (2000). Transition Economies: An IMF Perspective on Progressand Prospects. https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/ib/2000/110300.htm. Erişim Tarihi: (10.11.2017).
Toplam 24 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Burcu Ilgaz Yıldırım Bu kişi benim

Dilek Şahin Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Ekim 2018
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2018 Sayı: 16

Kaynak Göster

APA Yıldırım, B. I., & Şahin, D. (2018). Geçiş Ekonomilerinde Turizme ve Enerjiye Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Analizi: Panel Nedensellik Testi. Iğdır Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi(16), 437-457.