Ticari Açıklık ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Değerlendirilmesi: Gambiya Örneği

Yıl 2019, Sayı: EK SAYI (2019) - Yıl: 2019 Cilt: Ek Sayı: Ek, 441 - 475, 01.12.2019

Figen Büyükakın Lamarana Jallow

Öz

Küreselleşme süreci ile birlikte, ülkeler ticaretlerini serbestleştirmek suretiyle dış dünyaya açılmış ve böylece ekonomik büyümelerini önemli ölçüde etkileme olanağına kavuşmuşlardır. Çünkü dışa açılan ülkeler, bu sayede mal ve hizmetlerini, bilgilerini, sermayelerini sınırlar boyunca küçük kısıtlamalarla kolayca hareket ettirebilmektedirler. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Gambiya’da ticari dışa açıklık ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Çalışma kapsamında, Gambiya ekonomisinin 1966-2017 dönemine ilişkin çeşitli değerlendirmelerde bulunulmuştur. Analiz için Genişletilmiş Dickey-Fuller Testi ADF , Phillips Peron PP Birim Kök Testleri ile Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme Modeli ARDL kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, milli gelirin tüketim harcaması, sabit sermaye oluşumu ve kamu harcaması değişkenleri ile uzun dönemli bir ilişki içerisinde olduğunu göstermektedir. Tüketim harcaması, sabit sermaye oluşumu ve kamu harcaması değişkenleri sırası ile milli gelir üzerinde 0.80, 0.25 ve 0.22 oranında pozitif yönlü bir etki yapmaktadır. Bu çalışma kapsamında Gambiya’nın milli gelirinin, diğer değişkenlerle kıyaslandığından en fazla tüketim harcamasından etkilendiği sonucuna varılır. Ancak ticari açıklık değişkeni ile milli gelir arasında uzun dönemde anlamlı bir ilişkiye rastlanmamıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ticari Dışa Açıklık, Ekonomik Büyüme, Gambiya Ekonomisi, ARDL Modeli.

Assessment of the Relationship Between Commercial Gap and Economic Growth: The Case of Gambia

Öz

With the globalization process, countries opened up to the outside world by liberalizing their trade and thus had the opportunity to significantly affect their economic growth. This is because the countries that are opened to the outside can easily move their goods, services, knowledge and capital along the borders with little restrictions. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Gambia. Within the scope of the study, various evaluations have been made regarding the 1966-2017 period of the Gambian economy. Extended Dickey-Fuller Test ADF , Phillips Peron PP Unit Root Tests and Autoregressive Distributed Delay Model ARDL were used for analysis. The findings show that national income has a long-term relationship with consumption expenditure, fixed capital formation and public expenditure variables. Consumption expenditure, fixed capital formation and public expenditure variables have a positive effect on national income by 0.80, 0.25 and 0.22, respectively. In this study, it is concluded that Gambia's national income is most affected by consumption expenditure compared to other variables. However, no significant relationship was found between the commercial openness variable and national income in the long run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Trade Openness, Economic Growth, Gambian Economy, ARDL Model.

Kaynakça

• Ali, W. & Abdullah, A. (2015). The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Growth of Pakistan: 1980-2010. Global Business and Management Research: An International Journal, 7(2), 120-129.
• Asfaw, H. A. (2014). Trade Policy And Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel Data Approach. American Journal of Trade and Policy, 1, 94–101.
• Awokuse,T.O. (2008). Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Is Growth Export-Led or Import-Led?, Applied Economics, 40(2), 161-173.
• Brown, R. L., Durban, J., & Evans, J.M. (1975). Tech- niques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships Over Time. Journal of The Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149-163.
• Central Bank of the Gambia (CBG) (2017). Annual Re- port June 2017, Banjul The Gambia.
• Chang, R., Kaltani, L., & Loayza, N. V. (2009). Openness Can Be Good for Growth: The Role of Policy Complementarities. Journal of Development Economics, 90, 33– 49. Commonwealth Official Website: http://thecommonwealth.org/media/news/gambia-rejoins- commonwealth. 09/11/2018.
• Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with A Unit Root. Eco- nometrica: Journal of The Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
• Freund, C., & Bolaky, B. (2008). Trade, Regulations, And Income. Journal of Development Economics, 87, 309–321.
• Hartmann, C. (2017), ECOWAS and the Restoration of Democracy in The Gambia, In Africa Spectrum, 52(1), 85–99.
• Huchet-Bourdon, M., Le Mouël, C. & Vijil, M. (2011). The Reletionship Between Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Some New Insights on the Openness Measurement Issue. XIIIème Congrès de l’Association Européenne des Economistes Agricoles (EAAE), Zurich (CH), Swit- zerland, 1-17.
• Hughes, A. & Perfect, D. (2006). A Political History of the Gambia, 1816-1994. Rochester: University of Rochester Press.
• Hye, Q.M.Y., & Lau, W.Y. (2015). Trade Openness And Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From India, Journal of Business Economics and Management, 16(1), 188-205.
• http://www.cem.gov.tr/erozyon/Files/faaliyetler/dis _iliskiler/Afrika_ulkeleri/Orta%20Afrika/gambiya/Gambiya %20Genel%20Bilgi.pdf. 12.11.2018.
• https://insamer.com/tr/gambiya_724.htm. 01.03.2019.
• International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2018). The Gambia: Selected Issues Paper. IMF Country Report. Washington, D.C. 18/100.
• International Peace Institute (IPI) (2018). Toward a New Gambia: Linking Peace and Development. 777 United Nation Plaza: New York. ITC-Trademap, https://www.trademap.org/Index.aspx. 15. 12. 2018.
• Keho,Y. (2017). The Impact of Trade Openness On Economic Growth: The Case of Cote d’Ivoire. Cogent Economics & Finance, 1-14.
• Khalid, M. A. (2016). The Impact of Trade Openness on Economic Growth in The Case of Turkey. Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 7(10), 51-61.
• Klasra, M.A. (2011). Foreign Direct Investment, Trade Openness And Economic Growth in Pakistan And Turkey: An Investigation Using Bounds Test. Springer Science+Business Media, DOI 10.1007/s11135-009-9272-5.
• Kemayou, E., Tall, H., Geli, P., De Tommaso, G., & Lothrop, S.C. (2017). The Gambia; Fragility Risk and Resilience Assessment. Washington, D.C: World Bank Report. 117432-GM.
• MacKinnon, J.G. (1991). Critical Values for Cointegra- tion Tests, in R. F. Engle and C. W.J. Granger (eds.), Long-Run Economic Relationships-Readings in Cointegration, Oxford University Press., 267-276.
• Musila, J.W., & Yiheyis, Z. (2015). The Impact of Trade Openness on Growth: The Case of Kenya. Elsevier, Journal of Policy Modeling, 37 (2015), 342–354.
• Nkoro E. & Uko K, A. (2016). Autoregressive Distribu- ted Lag (ARDL) Cointegration Technique: Application and Interpretation, Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 5(4), 63-91.
• Nshimyumuremyi, A., (2018). The Gambia; African Economic Outlook 2018, African Development Bank. www.africaneconomicoutlook.org. 14/11/2018.
• Peseran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (1999). Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of The American Statistical Association, 94(446), 621- 634.
• Peseran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Reletionships Jo- urnal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
• Phillips, P.C.B. and Peron, P. (1988). Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series RegressionDikkey, Biometrika, 75 (2).
• Shahbaz, M. (2012). Does Trade Openness Affect Long Run Growth? Cointegration, Causality And Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Tests for Pakistan. Elsevier, Economic Modelling, 29 (2012), 2325–2339.
• The Gambia Tourism Board (2016). 2016 Official Co- untry Guide.
• The Heritage Foundation, (2018). The Gambia; www.heritage.org/index.14/11/2018.
• United Nation Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) (2017). Country Profile 2016-The Gambia. Economic Commis- sion for Africa. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
• Vlastou, I. (2010). Forcing Africa to Open Up to Trade: Is It Worth It? The Journal of Developing Areas, College of Bu- siness, Tennessee State University, 44(1), 25-39. World Population Review Official Website: http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/gambia- population/. 11/11/2018.
• Wright, D.R. (2004). The World and a Very Small Place: A History of Globalization in Niumi, the Gambia. 4ed. New York: Rout ledge.
• Yanıkkaya, H. (2003). Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation. Elsevier, Journal of Development Economics, 72(2003), 57– 89.
• Zahonogo, P. (2016). Trade and Economic Growth In Developing Countries: Evidence From Sub-Saharan Africa. Elsevier, Journal of African Trade, 3(2016), 41–56.