GEOPOLITICAL RISK, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM THE BRICS-T COUNTRIES

Öz

This study examines the effects of geopolitical risk (GPR) and foreign direct investment (FDI) on exports (EX) in BRICS-T countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and Turkey) using annual data from 1990 to 2024 and employing panel econometric methods to do so. Second-generation tests, which account for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity, identified a long-term cointegration relationship among the variables. According to the AMG (Augmented Mean Group) estimation results, FDI positively and statistically significantly affects exports (0.227), while geopolitical risk has a negative and significant effect on exports (−0.146). At the country level, the export-boosting effect of FDI is strong in Brazil, India, China, and South Africa, while this effect is limited in Turkey and Russia. Overall, it was concluded that the sustainability of foreign trade in BRICS-T countries depends not only on economic fundamentals but also on political stability and risk management capacity. In this context, strengthening the investment environment, increasing institutional confidence, and reducing geopolitical uncertainty are crucial to sustainable export performance.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Exports
• Foreign direct investment
• Geopolitical risk
• Cointegration

Kaynakça

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