A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Olcay Ölçen

TR EN

Monte Carlo Simülasyon Modeli ile Amerika Birleşik Devletleri Hava Taşıyıcıları için Finansal Getiri Analizi

Öz

Amaç ve Yöntem: Hava taşıyıcıları, ekonomik, politik ve teknolojik olmak üzere üç önemli boyutun kavşağında oldukları için finansal ve ekonomik olarak zor zamanlara alışkındır. Bu boyutlardaki küçük değişiklikler bile bir krizin kaynağıdır. ABD Havayolu şirketlerinin yatırımcılarının motivasyonları sürekli bir değişim halindedir. Bu analiz, standart sapma değerlerinin 0,01, 0,0001 ve 0,000001 olduğu üç senaryo ile Monte Carlo Simülasyonu yöntemini kullanarak bir getiri tahmini yapmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bulgular: Bulgulara göre, standart sapmalar arttıkça kazançlar veya kayıplar artarken ortalama sabittir. Öte yandan, devletlerin hava taşıyıcılarının dinamikleri konusunda daha istikrarlı politikalar kullanmaları gerektiği sonucuna varılabilir. Finansal yönetimde oynaklık, COVID-19 ve benzeri krizlerde görüldüğü gibi hava taşıyıcılarının düşmanıdır. Hava taşıyıcıları ve devletler oynaklık şoklarına hazır olmalıdır çünkü havayolları devlet stratejilerinin ve politikalarının bir parçası olarak tasarlanmıştır. Bu nedenle, korunma stratejileri her zaman devam etmelidir. Özgünlük: Bu araştırma, deneysel koşullar altında ve küçükten büyüğe değişen şoklar altında hisse senedi getirilerinin davranışlarını ve olası sonuçlarını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hava Taşıyıcıları, Finansal Getiriler, Monte Carlo Simülasyon Modeli, Standart Sapma

A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Öz

Purpose and Method: Air carriers are accustomed to hard times financially and economically because they are at the crossroads of three important dimensions that are economic, political and technological. Even small changes in these dimensions are the source of a crisis. The motivations of the US. Air carriers' investors are in a state of continual change. This analysis aims to make a return forecast using the Monte Carlo Simulation method with three scenarios in which values of standard deviations are 0.01, 0.0001 and 0.000001. Findings: According to the findings, as standard deviations increase, the gains or losses increase while the mean is stable. On the other hand, it can be concluded that the states should utilise more stable politics regarding the dynamics of air carriers. Volatility is an enemy of air carriers in financial management, as witnessed in COVID-19 and similar crises. Air carriers and states should be ready for volatility shocks because airlines are designed as part of state strategies and politics. Therefore, hedging strategies should always continue. Originality: This research shows the behaviours of the stock returns and possible results under experimental conditions and changing shocks from small to large.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Air Carriers, Financial Returns, Monte Carlo Simulation Model, Standard Deviation

Kaynakça

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Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

İngilizce

Konular

Finans

Bölüm

Araştırma Makalesi

Yazarlar

Olcay Ölçen ^*
0000-0002-4835-1171
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi

26 Aralık 2025

Gönderilme Tarihi

20 Mayıs 2025

Kabul Tarihi

19 Aralık 2025

Yayımlandığı Sayı

Yıl 2025 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA83ZR24LL

APA

Ölçen, O. (2025). A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model. Uluslararası Muhasebe ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(2), 75-90. https://izlik.org/JA83ZR24LL

AMA

1.Ölçen O. A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model. Uluslararası Muhasebe ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2025;7(2):75-90. https://izlik.org/JA83ZR24LL

Chicago

Ölçen, Olcay. 2025. “A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model”. Uluslararası Muhasebe ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi 7 (2): 75-90. https://izlik.org/JA83ZR24LL.

EndNote

Ölçen O (01 Aralık 2025) A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model. Uluslararası Muhasebe ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi 7 2 75–90.

IEEE

[1]O. Ölçen, “A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model”, Uluslararası Muhasebe ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 7, sy 2, ss. 75–90, Ara. 2025, [çevrimiçi]. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA83ZR24LL

ISNAD

Ölçen, Olcay. “A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model”. Uluslararası Muhasebe ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi 7/2 (01 Aralık 2025): 75-90. https://izlik.org/JA83ZR24LL.

JAMA

1.Ölçen O. A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model. Uluslararası Muhasebe ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi. 2025;7:75–90.

MLA

Ölçen, Olcay. “A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model”. Uluslararası Muhasebe ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, c. 7, sy 2, Aralık 2025, ss. 75-90, https://izlik.org/JA83ZR24LL.

Vancouver

1.Olcay Ölçen. A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model. Uluslararası Muhasebe ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi [Internet]. 01 Aralık 2025;7(2):75-90. Erişim adresi: https://izlik.org/JA83ZR24LL

Bu eser Creative Commons Atıf-GayriTicari 4.0 Uluslararası Lisansı ile lisanslanmıştır.

Monte Carlo Simülasyon Modeli ile Amerika Birleşik Devletleri Hava Taşıyıcıları için Finansal Getiri Analizi

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Kaynakça

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil

Konular

Bölüm

Yazarlar

Yayımlanma Tarihi

Gönderilme Tarihi

Kabul Tarihi

Yayımlandığı Sayı

IZ

Kaynak Göster