Monte Carlo Simülasyon Modeli ile Amerika Birleşik Devletleri Hava Taşıyıcıları için Finansal Getiri Analizi

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2, 75 - 90, 26.12.2025

Olcay Ölçen

Öz

Amaç ve Yöntem: Hava taşıyıcıları, ekonomik, politik ve teknolojik olmak üzere üç önemli boyutun kavşağında oldukları için finansal ve ekonomik olarak zor zamanlara alışkındır. Bu boyutlardaki küçük değişiklikler bile bir krizin kaynağıdır. ABD Havayolu şirketlerinin yatırımcılarının motivasyonları sürekli bir değişim halindedir. Bu analiz, standart sapma değerlerinin 0,01, 0,0001 ve 0,000001 olduğu üç senaryo ile Monte Carlo Simülasyonu yöntemini kullanarak bir getiri tahmini yapmayı amaçlamaktadır.
Bulgular: Bulgulara göre, standart sapmalar arttıkça kazançlar veya kayıplar artarken ortalama sabittir. Öte yandan, devletlerin hava taşıyıcılarının dinamikleri konusunda daha istikrarlı politikalar kullanmaları gerektiği sonucuna varılabilir. Finansal yönetimde oynaklık, COVID-19 ve benzeri krizlerde görüldüğü gibi hava taşıyıcılarının düşmanıdır. Hava taşıyıcıları ve devletler oynaklık şoklarına hazır olmalıdır çünkü havayolları devlet stratejilerinin ve politikalarının bir parçası olarak tasarlanmıştır. Bu nedenle, korunma stratejileri her zaman devam etmelidir.
Özgünlük: Bu araştırma, deneysel koşullar altında ve küçükten büyüğe değişen şoklar altında hisse senedi getirilerinin davranışlarını ve olası sonuçlarını göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Hava Taşıyıcıları , Finansal Getiriler , Monte Carlo Simülasyon Modeli , Standart Sapma

A Financial Return Analysis for the United States Air Carriers with a Monte Carlo Simulation Model

Öz

Purpose and Method: Air carriers are accustomed to hard times financially and economically because they are at the crossroads of three important dimensions that are economic, political and technological. Even small changes in these dimensions are the source of a crisis. The motivations of the US. Air carriers' investors are in a state of continual change. This analysis aims to make a return forecast using the Monte Carlo Simulation method with three scenarios in which values of standard deviations are 0.01, 0.0001 and 0.000001.
Findings: According to the findings, as standard deviations increase, the gains or losses increase while the mean is stable. On the other hand, it can be concluded that the states should utilise more stable politics regarding the dynamics of air carriers. Volatility is an enemy of air carriers in financial management, as witnessed in COVID-19 and similar crises. Air carriers and states should be ready for volatility shocks because airlines are designed as part of state strategies and politics. Therefore, hedging strategies should always continue.
Originality: This research shows the behaviours of the stock returns and possible results under experimental conditions and changing shocks from small to large.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Air Carriers , Financial Returns , Monte Carlo Simulation Model , Standard Deviation

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