WHAT DO BUSINESS SENTIMENTS SIGNAL: GROWTH OR NOTHING?

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 2, 1 - 8, 01.12.2010

Asli Yüksel Mermod Ulkem Basdas

Öz

Business sentiment surveys are conducted to provide information on the economic agents’
perceptions of the current situation and future expectations, hence the economic growth.
Therefore, this paper aims to test whether there is a long term relationship between the business
sentiment index and growth in the selected countries over 1985-2009. Besides, the survey
questions are decomposed according to their forward-looking and backward-looking
characteristics in order to compute “current conditions” and “expectations” sub-indices. ARDL
model results indicate that business sentiment indices have a long term relationship with the
growth in most of the countries. Nevertheless, there is not a significant difference between
“current conditions” and “expectations” sub-indices.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Business tendency surveys, business sentiment, growth, ARDL

Kaynakça

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