EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: A SECTORAL ANALYSIS FOR TURKEY

Yıl 2012, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 2, 255 - 265, 01.12.2012

Sevcan Gunes Hacer Simay Karaalp

Öz

The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between exports and the
industrial production index for economic growth by employing the Granger
causality test for the total manufacturing sector and Turkey’s top 10 exported
goods over the period 2002:01 to 2012:05. According to our findings, there is
evidence to support export-led growth for basic metals, chemical products, and
fabricated metal products in the long-run and a unidirectional causality
relationship was found from economic growth to exports for electrical machinery
and apparatus both in the short and long-run. Moreover, a pattern of growth-led
exports is also valid for chemical products in the short-run.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Export-led growth, Granger causality test, Manufacturing sectors

Kaynakça

• Abu-qarn, A.S., & Abu-bader, S., (2004), “The Validity of the ELG Hypothesis in the MENA Region: Cointegration and Error Correction Model Analysis”, Applied Economics (36):1685-1695.
• Arslan,İ. & Yapraklı,S. (2008), Banka Kredileri Ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz (1983-2007), İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Ekonometri ve İstatistik Dergisi (7): 88-103.
• Bhattacharyya, B. (2001), “Export Performance”, Paper presented at the Expert Group Meeting on Regional Economic Cooperation, Bangkok, 14-16 March 2001. Balassa,B. (1978) “Exports and Economic Growth: Further Evidence”,Journal of Development Economics, 5(2):181-189.
• Bilgin,C.&Şahbaz,A.(2009)“Türkiye’deki
• Nedensellik İlişkileri”,Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilim. Dergisi,8(1):177-198. Büyüme ve İhracat
• Arasındaki Chow, P.C.Y. (1987) “Causality Between Export Growth and Industrial Development: Empirical Evidence from NICs”, Journal of Development Economics, 26(1):55-63.
• Çetintaş, H. & Barışık,S.(2009) “Export, Import and Economic Growth: The Case of Transition Economies, Transition Studies Review (15):636-649.
• Çiftçioğlu, S. & Nekhili, R. (2005) “New Evidence for Exports Led Growth, Tradebles- Led Growth and Manufacturing Led Growth: Causality Test Results for Turkey”, Latin American Journal of Economic Development: 135-142.
• Demirhan, A.A. & Coşar E.E. (2012) “İktisadi Faaliyet Analizi: Öncü Göstergeler ve Ekonomi Saati Yaklaşımı”, TCMB Ekonomi Notları, Sayı: 2012-02: 1-11.
• Engle, R. & Granger, C. W. J. (1987) “Cointegration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2):251–76.
• Granger, C.W.J. (1969) “Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods”, Econometrica, 37(3): 424–438.
• Gries T., Kraft M. & Meierrieks D. (2009), "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa", World Development, 37(12): 1849–1860.
• Grossman, G.M. & Helpman, E.(1991) Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy,Cambridge, MA:MIT Press.
• Halicioglu, F. (2007) A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey, MPRA Papers No: 3565: 1-6.
• Helpman,E. & Krugman, P.(1985) Market Structure and Foreign Trade, Cambridge, MA:MIT Press.
• Hossain,A.M. & Karunaratne, N.D. (2001) “On Export Led Growth: Is Manufacturing Exports A New Engine of Growth for Bangladesh?,Discussion Paper No:297: 1-30.
• Johansen, S., (1988) Statical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. J. Econ. Dynamic & Cont.(12): 231-254.
• Johansen,S.&Juselius,K.(1990)“ML and Inferences on Cointegration with Applications to the Demand for Money”,Oxford Bull.Econ.and Stat.(52):169-210. Kızılgöl,Ö.(2006) Türkiye’de İhracat ve Turizme Dayalı Büyüme Hipotezinin Analizi:Eşbütünleşme ve Nedensellik İlişkisi,Akademik Bakış,Sayı (10):1-12.
• Kösekahyaoğlu,L.(2006) “Test of Export Led Growth Hyothesis:A Comparative Analysis on Turkey and Newly Developing Countries”, Business: Theory and Practice, 7(4): 243-253.
• Mauro, F. &Forster, K. (2008): Globalization and the competitiveness of the Euro Area. European Central Bank Occasional Paper Series, No.97:1-52.
• McKinnon, R.(1964) “Foreign Exchange Constraint in Economic Development and Efficient Aid Allocation”, Economic Journal, (74): 388-409
• Njikam, O. (2003), Exports and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is There a Connection, Working Paper, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Yaounde, Cameroon. 1-30.
• Saatçioğlu, C. & Karaca, O. (2004) “Türkiye’de İhracat ile Büyüme Arsındaki Nedensellik İlişkisi:1980 Dönüşümünün Etkisi”,Yönetim, 15(49):30-40.
• Taban, S. & Aktar I.(2008), “An empirical examination of the export-led growth hypothesis in Turkey”, Journal of Yasar University, 3(11): 1535-1551.
• Taştan H. (2010), “Türkiye’de İhracat, İthalat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki Nedensellik İlişkilerinin Spektral Analizi”, Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 2(1): 87- 98.
• Yükseler Z. (2009) Türkiye’de Kriz Dönemlerinde Ekonomik Gelişmeler ve Ödemeler Dengesi Durumu, TCMB, Temmuz 2009, 1-54.