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AN UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY

Yıl 2010, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 1, 121 - 129, 01.06.2010

Öz

The literature on consumer sentiment argues its leading role as consumer surveys try to extract information for the future path of economic agent behavior. Nevertheless, focusing on the forecasting power of consumer confidence rather than searching its functional identity has created a tendency for underestimating the importance of consumer surveys. Moreover, many studies concentrate on consumer confidence in advanced economies where the economic environment has historically been rather stable. However, in a dynamic emerging market like Turkey where the future is uncertain rather than risky consumer confidence should be modeled as an economic indicator including current and past information. This study is an unconventional one in the sense that it evaluates the functional identity of consumer sentiment. Our empirical findings show that movements in consumer confidence depend on changes in exchange rates, stock exchange index, manufacturing industry index and expectations measured through tendency in business environment

Kaynakça

  • Acemoğlu, Daron and Andrew Scott (1994), “Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations:
  • Are Agents Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?”, Economic Journal, Vol. 104, No. 422, pp. 1-19. Alessie, Robertus and Annamaria Lusardi (1997), “Saving and Income Smoothing: Evidence from
  • Panel Data”, European Economic Review, Vol. 41, No. 7, pp. 1251-1279.
  • Batchelor, Roy and Pami Dua (1998), “Improving Macro-economic Forecasts: the Role of
  • Consumer Confidence”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 71-81. Bram, Jason and Sydney C. Ludvigson (1998), “Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household
  • Expenditures? A Sentiment Index Horse Race”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 59-78. Carroll, Christopher D., Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and David W. Wilcox (1994), “Does Consumer
  • Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?”, American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. , pp. 1397-1408.
  • Central Bank Republic of Turkey (2010), http://www.tcmb.gov.tr [Accessed 01.05.2010]
  • Desroches, Brigitte and Marc-Andre Gosselin (2002), “The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence
  • Indexes in The United States”, Bank of Canada Working Paper No. 2002-22, Canada.
  • Dominitz Jeff and Charles F. Manski, (2004) “How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?”,
  • Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 51-66
  • Eppright, David R., Nestor M. Arguea and William L. Huth (1998), “Aggregate Consumer
  • Expectation Indexes as Indicators of Future Consumer Expenditures”, Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 215-235. Garner, Alan (2002), “Consumer Confidence after September 11”, Economic Review, Vol. 87, No. , pp.5-25.
  • Huth, William L., David R. Eppright and Paul M. Taube (1994), “The Indexes of Consumer
  • Sentiment and Confidence: Leading or Misleading Guides to Future Buyer Behavior”, Journal of Business Research, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 199-206. Jansen, W. Jos and Niek J. Nahuis (2003), “The Stock Market and Consumer Confidence:
  • European Evidence”, Economics Letters, Vol. 79, No. 1, pp. 89-98. Katona, George (1960), The Powerful Consumer, New York: McGraw Hill.
  • Kwan Andy C. C. and John A. Cotsomitis (2006), “The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence in
  • Forecasting Household Spending in Canada: A National and Regional Analysis”, Economic Inquiry, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 185-197. Küçükaslan, Aslı and Sadullah Çelik (2010), “Women Feel more Pessimistic than Men: Empirical
  • Evidence from Turkish Consumer Confidence Index”, Journal of Business Economics and Management, Vol. 11, No.1, pp. 146-171
  • Mishkin, Frederic S. (1978), “Consumer Sentiment and Spending on Durable Goods”, Brookings
  • Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, pp. 217-232. NTVMSNBC (2010), http://www.ntvmsnbc.com [Accessed 28.02.2010]
  • Otoo, Maria W. (1999), “Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market”, Finance and Economics
  • Discussion Paper 1999-60, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.
  • Roberts, Ivan and John Simon (2001), “What do Sentiment Surveys Measure?”, Economic
  • Research Reserve Bank of Australia, Research Discussion Paper, Sydney, Australia. Souleles, Nicholas S. (2004), “Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption:
  • Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 39–72. Turkish Statistical Institute (2010), http://www.tuik.gov.tr [Accessed 02.05.2010]
  • Van Oest, Rutger and Phillip H. Franses (2008), “Measuring Changes in Consumer Confidence”,
  • Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 255-275.
Yıl 2010, Cilt: 2 Sayı: 1, 121 - 129, 01.06.2010

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Acemoğlu, Daron and Andrew Scott (1994), “Consumer Confidence and Rational Expectations:
  • Are Agents Beliefs Consistent with the Theory?”, Economic Journal, Vol. 104, No. 422, pp. 1-19. Alessie, Robertus and Annamaria Lusardi (1997), “Saving and Income Smoothing: Evidence from
  • Panel Data”, European Economic Review, Vol. 41, No. 7, pp. 1251-1279.
  • Batchelor, Roy and Pami Dua (1998), “Improving Macro-economic Forecasts: the Role of
  • Consumer Confidence”, International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 14, No. 1, pp. 71-81. Bram, Jason and Sydney C. Ludvigson (1998), “Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household
  • Expenditures? A Sentiment Index Horse Race”, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, Vol. 4, No. 2, pp. 59-78. Carroll, Christopher D., Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and David W. Wilcox (1994), “Does Consumer
  • Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?”, American Economic Review, Vol. 84, No. , pp. 1397-1408.
  • Central Bank Republic of Turkey (2010), http://www.tcmb.gov.tr [Accessed 01.05.2010]
  • Desroches, Brigitte and Marc-Andre Gosselin (2002), “The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence
  • Indexes in The United States”, Bank of Canada Working Paper No. 2002-22, Canada.
  • Dominitz Jeff and Charles F. Manski, (2004) “How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence?”,
  • Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 2, pp. 51-66
  • Eppright, David R., Nestor M. Arguea and William L. Huth (1998), “Aggregate Consumer
  • Expectation Indexes as Indicators of Future Consumer Expenditures”, Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 19, No. 2, pp. 215-235. Garner, Alan (2002), “Consumer Confidence after September 11”, Economic Review, Vol. 87, No. , pp.5-25.
  • Huth, William L., David R. Eppright and Paul M. Taube (1994), “The Indexes of Consumer
  • Sentiment and Confidence: Leading or Misleading Guides to Future Buyer Behavior”, Journal of Business Research, Vol. 29, No. 1, pp. 199-206. Jansen, W. Jos and Niek J. Nahuis (2003), “The Stock Market and Consumer Confidence:
  • European Evidence”, Economics Letters, Vol. 79, No. 1, pp. 89-98. Katona, George (1960), The Powerful Consumer, New York: McGraw Hill.
  • Kwan Andy C. C. and John A. Cotsomitis (2006), “The Usefulness of Consumer Confidence in
  • Forecasting Household Spending in Canada: A National and Regional Analysis”, Economic Inquiry, Vol. 44, No. 1, pp. 185-197. Küçükaslan, Aslı and Sadullah Çelik (2010), “Women Feel more Pessimistic than Men: Empirical
  • Evidence from Turkish Consumer Confidence Index”, Journal of Business Economics and Management, Vol. 11, No.1, pp. 146-171
  • Mishkin, Frederic S. (1978), “Consumer Sentiment and Spending on Durable Goods”, Brookings
  • Papers on Economic Activity, Vol. 1, pp. 217-232. NTVMSNBC (2010), http://www.ntvmsnbc.com [Accessed 28.02.2010]
  • Otoo, Maria W. (1999), “Consumer Sentiment and the Stock Market”, Finance and Economics
  • Discussion Paper 1999-60, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.
  • Roberts, Ivan and John Simon (2001), “What do Sentiment Surveys Measure?”, Economic
  • Research Reserve Bank of Australia, Research Discussion Paper, Sydney, Australia. Souleles, Nicholas S. (2004), “Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption:
  • Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 39–72. Turkish Statistical Institute (2010), http://www.tuik.gov.tr [Accessed 02.05.2010]
  • Van Oest, Rutger and Phillip H. Franses (2008), “Measuring Changes in Consumer Confidence”,
  • Journal of Economic Psychology, Vol. 29, No. 3, pp. 255-275.
Toplam 29 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA59ZR59MU
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Sadullah Celık Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Haziran 2010
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2010 Cilt: 2 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Celık, S. (2010). AN UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 2(1), 121-129.
AMA Celık S. AN UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY. IJEFS. Haziran 2010;2(1):121-129.
Chicago Celık, Sadullah. “AN UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY”. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies 2, sy. 1 (Haziran 2010): 121-29.
EndNote Celık S (01 Haziran 2010) AN UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies 2 1 121–129.
IEEE S. Celık, “AN UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY”, IJEFS, c. 2, sy. 1, ss. 121–129, 2010.
ISNAD Celık, Sadullah. “AN UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY”. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies 2/1 (Haziran 2010), 121-129.
JAMA Celık S. AN UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY. IJEFS. 2010;2:121–129.
MLA Celık, Sadullah. “AN UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY”. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, c. 2, sy. 1, 2010, ss. 121-9.
Vancouver Celık S. AN UNCONVENTIONAL ANALYSIS OF CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX FOR THE TURKISH ECONOMY. IJEFS. 2010;2(1):121-9.