COMPARISON OF RENEWABLE AND CONVENTIONAL ENERGY COSTS BY WAVELET TECHNIQUES

Öz

This paper aims to compare the cost of renewable energy to conventional energy sources in production. It is argued that advantage in cost of production would support competitiveness of Turkish manufacturing industry in international trade. In this paper an export model has been developed to forecast competitive advantage of Turkish manufacturing industry on international trade by using renewable energy in production. Data on the cost of energy on Turkish manufacturing industry and export performance in past 10 years were processed. This study utilizes 1D wavelet packets and continuous wavelets on historical cost and export values in Turkey. Wavelet and regression analysis have been applied to define variation in temporal and spatial patterns. Wavelet techniques detect sudden changing, increasing and decreasing trends of data and define the role of factors small and large scale effects. Actual share of energy usage in production cost and usage of renewable energy instead of conventional energy values were compared to other countries data analyses

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Cost of renewable energy, wavelet analysis, cost advantage, competitiveness, international trade

Kaynakça

1. Akan,Y, Dogan, M and Cem Isik “The Casuality Consumption and Economic Growth? The Case of Turkey” Journal of Enerji. Piyasa ve Duzenleme, Vol.1.No.1.pp: 101-120 Energy Aslan, Z., ve H. Gençoğlu. Rüzgar-Güneş “Enerji Olanakları”, V. Ulusal Üretim Arastırmaları Sempozyumu, Istanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi, 27 Kasım 2005, s. 547, 2005. Yararlanma
2. Bubula, A., İnci Robe-Otker., “The Evolution of Exchange Rate Regimes Since : Evidence from the De Factor Policies”, IMF Working Paper, 2002
3. Dooley M., L. Folkerts, Peter Garber, Bretton International http://www.nber.org/papers/w14731, 2009 System”,
4. Durand and Giorno., “Indicators of international Competitiveness: Conceptual Aspects and Evaluation”, OECD Economic Studies., Vol.9, 1987
5. Hassett, K, Hubbard Glenn and Matthew H.Jensen(2011) Rethinking Competitiveness.
6. American Enterprise Institute for Publicy Policy Research” “Is Competitiveness Worth Defending?” Prepared for the American Enterprise Institute International Monetary Fund (2009),” Review of Recent Crisis
7. Programs” Approved by Reza Moghadam, R (2009)
8. Helpman E., P.Krugman, Trade Policy and Market Structure, The MIT Press, Cambridge. 1999

9. Maltsoglu, Irini ”Simulating exogenous and endogenous technology when depletables renewables and pollution co-exist: how to achieve sustainability?”, 2009 http://dspace.uniroma2.it/dspace/bitstream/210
10. /1007/3/Paper+II_Maltsoglou_June09.pdf
11. Melek, M., A. Tokgozlu and Z.Aslan Wavelet Analyses of Oil Prices, USA Variations and Impact On Logistics. 2008
12. Obstfeld, M. and Kenneth Rogoff, The Unsustainable US Current Account, 2007
13. Position Revisited URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c0127
14. Obstfeld, M and Kenneth Rogoff G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, 2007 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/clar06-2
15. Ozturk, I. “Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade : A literature Survey” International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Vol.3-1, 2006
16. Parrinelo,Sergio, The Notion of National Competitiveness In A Global Economyniversity of Rome La Sapienza Forthcoming in Economic Theory and Economic Thought: Essays in Honour of Ian Steedman edited by J Vint S Metcalfe, H.Kurz, P. Samuelson and N.Salvadori, Routhledge, 2009
17. Johansson, T. Kelly, Amulya K.N. H. Reddy, R.Williams (1993).Renewable Fuels and Electricity For a Growing World
18. Economy. Island Press. ISBN 1 55963
19. Turner, Anthony G and Golub, S (1997).
20. Multilateral Unit Labor Cost Based Indicators of Competitivees for Industrial, Developing and Transition Economies.IMF Staff Studies for the World Economic Outlook. Gokcecinar, R.and Uyumaz, A, “Rüzgar Energisi Maliyetleri ve Teşvikleri” Incentives for Wind Energy. VII Ulusal Temiz Enerji Sempozyumu, UTES 2008. Istanbul.
21. Kenisarina, M., V. M. Karslı and M. Caglar, Wind power engineering in the world and perspectives of its development in Turkey, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, , 341–369, 2006.
22. Krugman, P and M.Obstfeld., International Economics:Theory and Policy,7.Boston.Addison and Wesley., 2003
23. Kotan, Z., S.Sayan, “Comparison of the Price Competitiveness of Turkish and South East Asian Export in the European Union Market in the 1990s”. Research Department.
24. Discussion Paper No: 2001 / 2. The Central
25. Bank of the Republic of Turkey. Leelahaphan, T. J., ”Crude, Oil Price, House Price and UA Canada Imbalance, 2009 Mandeng, competitiveness specialization, Eclac Review, Nº 45, 1991 and international
26. Meyer, Y. The role of oscillation in some nonlinear problems, School on Mathematical Problems in Image Processing, ICTP, SMR /4, pp. 4-22, 2000.
27. Ricardo,D.(1814:1932).“Political
28. Economy On Foreign Trade”, Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. Edited with introductory essay, notes and appendices, by Sir E.C.K.Gonner, G.Bell and Sons Ltd.London.pp:108-130. Sabuncu,F.,M.Colakoglu, Renewable Energy Sector from a Global Perspective” www.pwc.com, 2012 “Turkey’s
29. Siddiqi, A., Aslan, Z. and Tokgozlu,A. “Wavelet based computer simulation of some meteorological parameters: Case study in Turkey”, Trends in Industrial and Applied Mathematics, H. Siddiqi and M. Kocvara (Editors), pp. 95-105, Kluwer Academic Publishers, London, 2002.
30. Sims, R. Hans, H. Rogner and Ken Gregory, “Carbon Emission and Mitigation Cost Comparison between fossil fuel, nuclear and renewable energy resources for electricity generation”. Energy Policy 31.pp: 1315-1326,
31. Rich, D. and L. Karp “Climate Change, Carbon Taxes and International Trade: An Analysis of the Emerging Conflict Between the Kyoto Protocol and the WTO. 2004.
32. Ricardo,D.(1814:1932).“Political
33. Economy On Foreign Trade”, Principles of Political Economy and Taxation. Edited with introductory essay, notes and appendices, by Sir Ltd.London.pp:108-130. G.Bell and Sons Sovacool, Technologies: Creating a False Dichotomy for American Energy Policy. Policy Sciences, Vol. 40, No. 2, pp. 101-122 ,2007 Nuclear
34. Siggel.E., International Competitivenes and Comparatıve Advantage: A Survey and Proposal for Measurement. CESIFO Venice Summer Institute. 2007.
35. Stiglitz, J.,” Markets Failure and Development”, The American Review, Volume 79, Issue 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Hundred and First Annual Meeting of the American Economics Association. pp.197- ,1989
36. Tolun S., Mentes S., Aslan Z., Yukselen M. The Wind Energy Potential of Gokceada in the Northern Aegena Sea, 1995, Renewable Energy, Vol. 6, No. 7, pp. 679-685, 1995.
37. Turksoy F. Investigation of wind power potential at Bozcaada, Turkey”, Renewable Energy, 6(8), p. 917–23, 1995.
38. TEIAŞ, Türkiye Elektrik Üretimi – İletim İstatistikleri, Statistic for Turkey’s Electricity Distribution, 2011
39. Under Secretariat of Treasury, Republic of Turkey.Dis Sorunlar.Main http://www.treasury.gov.tr/irj/portal/anon ymous Onundeki Temel Export, Problems For TEIAS. Türkiye Elektrik Enerjisi 10 Yıllık Üretim Kapasite Projeksiyonu, 2005 OECD
40. Environmental and Social Statistics. ISBN 92- 08356-2, 2010 book,: Economic,
41. World Economic Forum (WEF): Green Investing 2011: A Preview, 2011
42. TWEA: Turkish Wind Energy Association, April 30, 2011.
43. Wexler, I., ”Foundation of International Trade Theory: The Classical Approach”, Fundamentals of International Economics.Random House Press. Newyork. pp.53, 1972
44. Winters,A.,“The Rybcynski Theorem”,International Economics, London,p:39, 1991