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SINGLE-STOCK FUTURES AND THE SPOT VOLATILITY: AN EVENT STUDY IN BORSA ISTANBUL

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1, 23 - 35, 20.03.2024

Öz

This study investigates the impact of the introduction of Single-Stock Futures (SSFs) on stock volatility and trading volume in Türkiye's Borsa Istanbul. Utilizing an event study methodology with the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model, it examines 43 stocks listed on Borsa Istanbul with corresponding futures contracts on the VIOP exchange. The results show that introducing SSFs correlates with increased market volatility and trading activity, challenging the traditional market stability theory associated with derivatives. This study contributes significantly to the literature on financial derivatives in emerging markets, highlighting the dynamics and implications of SSFs on underlying stock behavior, and provides insights for investors, fund managers, and policymakers in assessing the impact of derivative trading on market dynamics.

Kaynakça

  • Ausloos, M., Zhang, Y., & Dhesi, G. (2020). Stock index futures trading impact on spot price volatility. The CSI 300 studied with a TGARCH model. Expert Systems with Applications, 160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2020.113688
  • Baklaci, H., & Tutek, H. (2006). The impact of the futures market on spot volatility: An analysis in Turkish derivatives markets. WIT Transactions on Modelling and Simulation, 43, 237–246. https://doi.org/10.2495/CF060231
  • Basdas, U., & Oran, A. (2014). Event studies in Turkey. In Borsa Istanbul Review (Vol. 14, Issue 3, pp. 167–188). Borsa Istanbul Anonim Sirketi. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2014.03.003 Brown, S. J., & Warner, J. B. (1985). The Case of Event Studies*. In Journal of Financial Economics (Vol. 14). North-Holland USING DAILY STOCK RETURNS.
  • Çaǧlayan, E. (2011). The impact of Stock index futures on the Turkish spot market. Journal of Emerging Market Finance, 10(1), 73–91. https://doi.org/10.1177/097265271101000103
  • Dennis, S. A., & Sim, A. B. (1999). Share price volatility with the introduction of individual share futures on the Sydney Futures Exchange. In International Review of Financial Analysis (Vol. 8, Issue 2). Dong, S., & Feng, Y. (2018). Does index futures trading cause market fluctuations? China Finance Review International, 8(2), 173–198. https://doi.org/10.1108/CFRI-06-2017-0070
  • Drimbetas, E., Sariannidis, N., & Porfiris, N. (2007). The effect of derivatives trading on volatility of the underlying asset: Evidence from the Greek stock market. Applied Financial Economics, 17(2), 139–148. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603100500461702
  • Edwards, F. R. (1988a). Does Futures Trading Increase Stock Market Volatility? Financial Analyst Journal, 44(2), 63–69. www.jstor.org
  • Edwards, F. R. (1988b). Futures Trading and Cash Market Volatility: Stock Index and Interest Rate Futures. Journal of Futures Market, 8(4), 421–439.
  • Gürbüz, S., & Şahbaz, A. (2022). Investigating the volatility spillover effect between derivative markets and spot markets via the wavelets: The case of Borsa İstanbul. Borsa Istanbul Review, 22(2), 321–331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2021.05.006
  • Kasman, A., & Kasman, S. (2008). The impact of futures trading on volatility of the underlying asset in the Turkish stock market. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 387(12), 2837–2845. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2008.01.084
  • Kumar, U., & Tse, Y. (2009). Single-stock futures: Evidence from the Indian securities market. Global Finance Journal, 20(3), 220–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2009.06.004
  • Landsman, W. R., & Maydew, E. L. (2002). Has the information content of quarterly earnings announcements declined in the past three decades? Journal of Accounting Research, 40(3), 797–808. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.00071
  • Malik, I. R., & Shah, A. (2017). The Impact of Single Stock Futures on Market Efficiency and Volatility: A Dynamic CAPM Approach. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(2), 339–356. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1210507
  • Mutlu, E., & Arık, E. (2015). Interaction Between Single-Stock Futures and the Underlying Securities: A Cross-Country Analysis. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51(3), 647–657. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2014.998568
  • Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach (Vol. 59, Issue 2).
  • Pok, W. C., & Poshakwale, S. (2004). The impact of the introduction of futures contracts on the spot market volatility: The case of Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Applied Financial Economics, 14(2), 143–154. https://doi.org/10.1080/0960310042000176416
  • Prasad, M., Bakry, W., & Varua, M. E. (2021). Abnormal volatility in seasoned equity offerings during economic disruptions. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2021.100509
  • Sharpe, W. F. (1964). CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425–442. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x
  • Spyrou, S. I. (2005). Index Futures Trading and Spot Price Volatility: Evidence from an Emerging Market. Journal of Emerging Market Finance, 4(2), 151–167. https://doi.org/10.1177/097265270500400203
  • Tokat, E., & Tokat, H. A. (2010). Shock and volatility transmission in the futures and spot markets: Evidence from Turkish markets. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 46(4), 92–104. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X460406
  • Truong, L. D., Nguyen, A. T. K., & Vo, D. Van. (2021). Index Future Trading and Spot Market Volatility in Frontier Markets: Evidence from Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 28(3), 353–366. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-020-09325-1
  • Yu, S. W. (2001). Index futures trading and spot price volatility. Applied Economics Letters, 8(3), 183–186. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850150504568

SINGLE-STOCK FUTURES AND THE SPOT VOLATILITY: AN EVENT STUDY IN BORSA ISTANBUL

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1, 23 - 35, 20.03.2024

Öz

This study investigates the impact of the introduction of Single-Stock Futures (SSFs) on stock volatility and trading volume in Türkiye's Borsa Istanbul. Utilizing an event study methodology with the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model, it examines 43 stocks listed on Borsa Istanbul with corresponding futures contracts on the VIOP exchange. The results show that introducing SSFs correlates with increased market volatility and trading activity, challenging the traditional market stability theory associated with derivatives. This study contributes significantly to the literature on financial derivatives in emerging markets, highlighting the dynamics and implications of SSFs on underlying stock behavior, and provides insights for investors, fund managers, and policymakers in assessing the impact of derivative trading on market dynamics.

Kaynakça

  • Ausloos, M., Zhang, Y., & Dhesi, G. (2020). Stock index futures trading impact on spot price volatility. The CSI 300 studied with a TGARCH model. Expert Systems with Applications, 160. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2020.113688
  • Baklaci, H., & Tutek, H. (2006). The impact of the futures market on spot volatility: An analysis in Turkish derivatives markets. WIT Transactions on Modelling and Simulation, 43, 237–246. https://doi.org/10.2495/CF060231
  • Basdas, U., & Oran, A. (2014). Event studies in Turkey. In Borsa Istanbul Review (Vol. 14, Issue 3, pp. 167–188). Borsa Istanbul Anonim Sirketi. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2014.03.003 Brown, S. J., & Warner, J. B. (1985). The Case of Event Studies*. In Journal of Financial Economics (Vol. 14). North-Holland USING DAILY STOCK RETURNS.
  • Çaǧlayan, E. (2011). The impact of Stock index futures on the Turkish spot market. Journal of Emerging Market Finance, 10(1), 73–91. https://doi.org/10.1177/097265271101000103
  • Dennis, S. A., & Sim, A. B. (1999). Share price volatility with the introduction of individual share futures on the Sydney Futures Exchange. In International Review of Financial Analysis (Vol. 8, Issue 2). Dong, S., & Feng, Y. (2018). Does index futures trading cause market fluctuations? China Finance Review International, 8(2), 173–198. https://doi.org/10.1108/CFRI-06-2017-0070
  • Drimbetas, E., Sariannidis, N., & Porfiris, N. (2007). The effect of derivatives trading on volatility of the underlying asset: Evidence from the Greek stock market. Applied Financial Economics, 17(2), 139–148. https://doi.org/10.1080/09603100500461702
  • Edwards, F. R. (1988a). Does Futures Trading Increase Stock Market Volatility? Financial Analyst Journal, 44(2), 63–69. www.jstor.org
  • Edwards, F. R. (1988b). Futures Trading and Cash Market Volatility: Stock Index and Interest Rate Futures. Journal of Futures Market, 8(4), 421–439.
  • Gürbüz, S., & Şahbaz, A. (2022). Investigating the volatility spillover effect between derivative markets and spot markets via the wavelets: The case of Borsa İstanbul. Borsa Istanbul Review, 22(2), 321–331. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2021.05.006
  • Kasman, A., & Kasman, S. (2008). The impact of futures trading on volatility of the underlying asset in the Turkish stock market. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 387(12), 2837–2845. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2008.01.084
  • Kumar, U., & Tse, Y. (2009). Single-stock futures: Evidence from the Indian securities market. Global Finance Journal, 20(3), 220–234. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2009.06.004
  • Landsman, W. R., & Maydew, E. L. (2002). Has the information content of quarterly earnings announcements declined in the past three decades? Journal of Accounting Research, 40(3), 797–808. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.00071
  • Malik, I. R., & Shah, A. (2017). The Impact of Single Stock Futures on Market Efficiency and Volatility: A Dynamic CAPM Approach. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 53(2), 339–356. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1210507
  • Mutlu, E., & Arık, E. (2015). Interaction Between Single-Stock Futures and the Underlying Securities: A Cross-Country Analysis. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51(3), 647–657. https://doi.org/10.1080/1540496X.2014.998568
  • Nelson, D. B. (1991). Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach (Vol. 59, Issue 2).
  • Pok, W. C., & Poshakwale, S. (2004). The impact of the introduction of futures contracts on the spot market volatility: The case of Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Applied Financial Economics, 14(2), 143–154. https://doi.org/10.1080/0960310042000176416
  • Prasad, M., Bakry, W., & Varua, M. E. (2021). Abnormal volatility in seasoned equity offerings during economic disruptions. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2021.100509
  • Sharpe, W. F. (1964). CAPITAL ASSET PRICES: A THEORY OF MARKET EQUILIBRIUM UNDER CONDITIONS OF RISK. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425–442. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x
  • Spyrou, S. I. (2005). Index Futures Trading and Spot Price Volatility: Evidence from an Emerging Market. Journal of Emerging Market Finance, 4(2), 151–167. https://doi.org/10.1177/097265270500400203
  • Tokat, E., & Tokat, H. A. (2010). Shock and volatility transmission in the futures and spot markets: Evidence from Turkish markets. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 46(4), 92–104. https://doi.org/10.2753/REE1540-496X460406
  • Truong, L. D., Nguyen, A. T. K., & Vo, D. Van. (2021). Index Future Trading and Spot Market Volatility in Frontier Markets: Evidence from Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange. Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, 28(3), 353–366. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10690-020-09325-1
  • Yu, S. W. (2001). Index futures trading and spot price volatility. Applied Economics Letters, 8(3), 183–186. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504850150504568
Toplam 22 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonometrik ve İstatistiksel Yöntemler
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Sefa Takmaz

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 9 Ekim 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi 20 Mart 2024
Gönderilme Tarihi 4 Ocak 2024
Kabul Tarihi 18 Şubat 2024
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 4 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Takmaz, S. (2024). SINGLE-STOCK FUTURES AND THE SPOT VOLATILITY: AN EVENT STUDY IN BORSA ISTANBUL. Uluslararası İktisadi Ve İdari Akademik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(1), 23-35.