ENDONEZYA HOLLANDA HASTALIĞI RİSKİ ALTINDA OLABİLİR Mİ? PALM YAĞI ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 2, 43 - 68

Engin Dursun , Najibul Kashem

Öz

Palm yağı üretiminin artışı, maliyet etkinliği ve trans yağ asitleri içermemesinden kaynaklanmaktadır. Bu durum, gıda, gıda dışı endüstriler ve biyoyakıtlar dahil olmak üzere çeşitli sektörlerde küresel tüketim artışını yansıtmaktadır. Endonezya, bu emtianın en büyük ihracatçısı olarak küresel palm yağı piyasası üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahiptir. Ancak bu hakimiyet, ekonomi literatüründe incelenen bir fenomen olan Hollanda Hastalığı ile ilgili endişeleri gündeme getirmektedir. Bu çalışma, Endonezya'daki palmiye yağı üretiminin, reel döviz kurundaki değişiklikler yoluyla Endonezya ekonomisinde Hollanda Hastalığına yol açıp açmadığını araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma, Balassa-Samuelson etkisini ampirik olarak araştırmak için tasarlanan, Kuralbayeva, Kutan ve Wyzan (2001) tarafından geliştirilen bir model çerçevesini benimsemektedir. Analiz, 2009:M01 ile 2022:M12 arasındaki döneme ait aylık verileri kullanmaktadır. Bu veriler arasında Endonezya'nın reel efektif döviz kuru, ticaret hadleri, palmiye yağı fiyatları ve reel ücretler bulunmaktadır. Genel bir VAR modeli oluşturarak, çalışma ticaret hadleri, palmiye yağı fiyatları ve reel ücretlerin reel efektif döviz kuru üzerindeki kısa ve uzun vadeli etkilerini incelemektedir. Bulgulara göre, değişkenler arasında uzun vadeli bir eşbütünleşme vardır. Reel ücretlerden reel döviz kuru ve diğer değişkenlere Granger nedenselliği vardır ve ticaret hadleriyle ilişkisi istatistiksel olarak anlamlı değildir. Reel döviz kuru, ticaret hadlerinden beklendiğinden daha az etkilenmektedir ve reel ücretler onu etkilese de, Hollanda Hastalığını doğrulamak için kanıtlar yetersizdir, bu da dengeli sektörel rekabet gücü ve palmiye yağı ihracatının sınırlı etkilerini göstermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Endonezya , Hollanda Hastalığı , Palm Yağı , Var Modeli

COULD INDONESIA BE AT RISK OF DUTCH DISEASE? AN EXAMINATION OF PALM OIL

Öz

The surge in palm oil production owes to its cost-effectiveness and lack of trans-fatty acids, mirroring a global uptick in consumption across various sectors, including food, non-food industries, and biofuels. Indonesia, as the foremost exporter of this commodity, wields considerable influence over the global palm oil market. However, this dominance raises concerns about the Dutch Disease, a phenomenon explored in economic literature. This study aims to investigate whether palm oil production in Indonesia, through changes in the real exchange rate, has led to the Dutch Disease in the Indonesian economy. The study adopts a model framework originally developed by Kuralbayeva et. al. (2001), which is designed to empirically investigate the Balassa-Samuelson effect. The analysis utilizes monthly data from the period 2009:M01 to 2022:M12, including Indonesia’s real effective exchange rate, terms of trade, palm oil prices, and real wages. By constructing a general VAR model, the study explores the short- and long-term effects of terms of trade, palm oil prices, and real wages on the real effective exchange rate. According to the findings, there is a long-run cointegration among variables. There is Granger causality from real wages to real exchange rate and other variables, and its relationship with terms of trade is not statistically significant. The real exchange rate is less influenced by terms of trade than expected, and although real wages impact it, the evidence is insufficient to confirm Dutch Disease, suggesting balanced sectoral competitiveness and limited effects of palm oil exports.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Indonesia , Dutch Disease , Palm Oil , Var Model

Kaynakça

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