Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 4, 1393 - 1426, 29.12.2025

Cenk Tamer , Ömer Faruk Pekgöz

https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1676674

Öz

Kaynakça

  • [1] Cherp A., Jewell J. The concept of energy security: beyond the four as. Energy Policy 2014; (75): 415-421.
  • [2] Ciută F. Conceptual notes on energy security: total or banal security?. Security Dialogue 2010; 41(2): 123-144.
  • [3] Yergin D. The new map: energy, climate, and the clash of nations. Penguin Press, 2020.
  • [4] Sovacool B. K. Evaluating energy security in the Asia-Pacific region: A novel methodological approach. Energy Policy 2011; 39(11): 7472-7479.
  • [5] IEA. World energy outlook 2022 (pp. 51-52). International Energy Agency 2022.
  • [6] BP. Statistical review of world energy 2022 (p. 45). British Petroleum 2022.
  • [7] European Commission. REPowerEU: A plan to rapidly reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels and fast forward the green transition (p. 30). [Online]. Available: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_3131. Accessed: June 17, 2025.
  • [8] European Council. EU sanctions against Russia over Ukraine (p. 18). [Online]. Available: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/. Accessed: June 17, 2025.
  • [9] OIES. Russia’s oil exports and Asia’s rising role in global energy trade (pp. 16-17). Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. [Online]. Available: https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/russias-oil-exports-and-asias-rising-role-in-global-energy-trade/. Accessed: June 18, 2025.
  • [10] IEA. Gas market report, Q1 2023 (p. 37). International Energy Agency. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/gas-market-report-q1-2023. Accessed: June 18, 2025.
  • [11] CNPC. China’s natural gas import trends and market outlook (p. 12). China National Petroleum Corporation. [Online]. Available: https://www.cnpc.com.cn/en/2023NaturalGasReport/2023NaturalGasReport.shtml. Accessed: June 18, 2025.
  • [12] Gazprom. Power of Siberia gas pipeline project update (p. 5). [Online]. Available: https://www.gazprom.com/projects/power-of-siberia/. Accessed: June 25, 2025.
  • [13] World Bank. Global commodity markets outlook: Coal price trends and forecasts (p. 10). [Online]. Available: https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets. Accessed: June 25, 2025.
  • [14] IEEFA. Coal trade shifts amid Russian sanctions and Asian demand growth (p. 22). Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. [Online]. Available: https://ieefa.org/resources/coal-trade-shifts-amid-russian-sanctions-and-asian-demand-growth. Accessed: June 25, 2025.
  • [15] European Energy Exchange. Gas price developments in European markets (p. 8). [Online]. Available: https://www.eex.com/en/market-data/natural-gas. Accessed: June 25, 2025.
  • [16] Pach-Gurgul A. Development of the LNG market in the EU in the context of Russia-Ukraine war. Central European Review Of Economics & Finance 2023; 44(3): 79-98.
  • [17] Chyong C. K., Shahabuddin M. Securing Europe's net zero path with flexible LNG. Centre on Regulation in Europe (CERRE). Brussels, Belgium, 2024.
  • [18] Zisis G. Strategic implications of energy security: Ukraine-Russia Conflict and EU response. Master Thesis, Law School of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 2024.
  • [19] Xue J. et al. Toward a secure and resilient energy supply chain (p. 90-131). Global Value Chain Development Report 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/06_gvc23_ch3_dev_report_e.pdf. Accessed: June 25, 2025.
  • [20] Van de Graaf T. The geopolitics of energy after Russia’s war in Ukraine. Forging Europe’s Leadership : Global Trends, Russian Aggression and the Risk of a Regressive World, edited by Giovanni Grevi, Foundation for European Progressive Studies, (pp. 25–40), 2023.
  • [21] Ji Q. et al. New trends in global energy security geopolitics. Springer, 2025.
  • [22] Lin K. C., Reilly T. Northeast Asia’s energy transition–Challenges for a Rules-Based Security and Economic Order. In: Hosoya, Y., Kundnani, H. (eds) The Transformation of the Liberal International Order. SpringerBriefs in International Relations. Springer, Singapore, 2024.
  • [23] Sim L. C. The Arab Gulf states in the Asian energy market: is the Russia-Ukraine war a game changer?. Policy Studies 2024; 45(3-4): 633-652.
  • [24] Umbach F. Strengthening energy security and building resilience in the Asia–Pacific. United Nations-The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). United Nations publication, 2021.
  • [25] Munarriz Gistau, C. Powering up the European Union: addressing the energy security crisis. Master Thesis, Charles University, 2024.
  • [26] Energy Information Administration (EIA). Europe is a key destination for Russia’s energy exports. [Online]. Available: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51618. Accessed: June 25, 2025.
  • [27] Washington Post. Here’s where Russian oil flows. [Online]. Available: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/03/08/russian-oil-exports/. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [28] EIA. Crude oil and condensate exports from Russia 2021. [Online]. Available: https://share.google/WhAV0ZsKaU1VrHAHn. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [29] VOA News. ‘Power of Siberia 2’ Pipeline could see Europe, China compete for Russian gas. [Online]. Available: https://www.voanews.com/a/power-of-siberia-2-pipeline-could-see-europe-china-compete-for-russian-gas-/6402242.html. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [30] Oil Price. Russia eyes another massive gas pipeline to China. [Online]. Available: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Russia-Eyes-Another-Massive-Gas-Pipeline-To-China.html. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [31] VOA News. ‘Power of Siberia 2’ Pipeline could see Europe, China compete for Russian gas. [Online]. Available: https://www.voanews.com/a/power-of-siberia-2-pipeline-could-see-europe-china-compete-for-russian-gas-/6402242.html. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [32] Wishnick E. Pipeline "Khanfluence": Power of Siberia 2 to go through Mongolia to China. China Resource Risks. [Online]. Available: https://www.chinasresourcerisks.com/post/pipeline-khanfluence-power-of-siberia-2-to-go-through-mongolia-to-china. Accessed: July 12, 2025.
  • [33] Bloomberg Quint. How Russia-China gas pipeline changes energy calculus. [Online]. Available: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-25/how-russia-china-gas-pipeline-changes-energy-calculus-quicktake. Accessed: July 12, 2025.
  • [34] GraphicNews. Russia plannig second gas pipeline to China. [Online]. Available: https://www.graphicnews.com/. Accessed: July 12, 2025.
  • [35] Oil Price. Russia eyes another massive gas pipeline to China. [Online]. Available: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Russia-Eyes-Another-Massive-Gas-Pipeline-To-China.html. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [36] Al Jazeera. Putin hails China oil and gas deals amid tensions with Europe. [Online]. Available: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/4/putin-hails-china-oil-and-gas-deals-amid-tensions-with-europe. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [37] Reuters. Putin hails $117.5 bln of China deals as Russia squares off with West. [Online]. Available: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-hails-1175-bln-china-deals-russia-squares-off-with-west-2022-02-04/. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [38] Axios. Western sanctions tie Russia even tighter to China. [Online]. Available: https://www.axios.com/2022/10/10/russia-energy-pivot-china. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [39] British Petrol (BP). Statistical review of world energy 2021. Whitehouse Associates, London, 2021.
  • [40] International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Asia and Pacific. [Online]. Available: https://www.irena.org/How-we-work/Asia-and-Pacific. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [41] Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC). Status of Asia-Pacific energy use and energy trade, 2022.
  • [42] Asia Pacific Energy. Russia Federation crude oil by products, 2022.
  • [43] Asia Pacific Energy. Russia Federation gas exports, by products, 2022.
  • [44] Asia Pacific Energy. Russia Federation coal exports, by products, 2019.
  • [45] Asia Pacific Energy. South Korea crude oil by products, 2022.
  • [46] Gholizadeh, A., et al. Exploring China’s energy situation through One Belt and One Road. In 2019 5th International Conference on Advances in Environment Research (p. 4). 2020.
  • [47] Eurobiz. The role of energy within BRI. [Online]. Available: https://staticeurobiz.europeanchamber.com.cn/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/EURObiz_2018_Nov-Dec-Web.pdf. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [48] South China Morning Post. The Central Asian gas pipeline. [Online]. Available: https://multimedia.scmp.com/news/china/article/One-Belt-One-Road/gasPipeline.html. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [49] ASPAC. Cuba joins Belt And Road Initiative Energy Partnership. [Online]. Available: https://uclg-aspac.org/brlc/2021/11/10/cuba-joins-belt-and-road-initiative-energy-partnership/. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [50] Hua Y., Tong, T. Renewable energy integration in the Belt and Road Initiative: Government expenditure, green finance, and economic growth. [Online]. Available: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148125016441#preview-section-cited-by. Accessed: August 8, 2025.
  • [51] MERICS. Powering the Belt and Road. [Online]. Available: https://merics.org/en/tracker/powering-belt-and-road. Accessed: July 12, 2025.

The effects of the Ukraine War on Russia-China energy relations and regional markets

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 4, 1393 - 1426, 29.12.2025

Cenk Tamer , Ömer Faruk Pekgöz

https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1676674

Öz

The paper examines the effects of the Ukraine War on global energy markets, with a particular focus on Russia’s strategic reorientation toward Asia. The main research question investigates how the crisis has reshaped global energy supply chains and the geopolitical and economic ramifications of Russia’s pivot away from Europe. The study hypothesizes that the Ukraine War has fundamentally altered traditional energy dependency structures, compelling the European Union (EU) to reduce the reliance on Russian energy while driving Russia to strengthen its energy partnerships with Asia-Pacific countries. In this sense, the energy markets of Russia, China and Asia Pacific have become inseparable from each other.
Employing a qualitative research approach, this study utilizes content and textual analysis to assess shifts in global energy policies. The findings indicate that Russia has responded to the loss of its European market by significantly increasing energy exports to Asia. Notably, India’s imports of Russian oil have surged 25-fold, reaching 1.7 million barrels per day. Concurrently, the EU’s diversification efforts of its energy sources have led to a threefold rise in American liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe. Moreover, volatility in coal markets has driven many developing countries to increase their dependency on fossil fuels, slowing progress in green energy transition.
In conclusion, the Ukraine War has triggered lasting transformations in global energy security, reshaping supply chains and market dynamics. Russia’s pivot to Asia and the EU’s diversification strategies have set the stage for long-term shifts in the global energy landscape. By analyzing these developments, this study aims to shed light on the changing geopolitical and economic dimensions of global energy security.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Global energy markets Energy security Asia energy markets Renewable energy transition

Kaynakça

  • [1] Cherp A., Jewell J. The concept of energy security: beyond the four as. Energy Policy 2014; (75): 415-421.
  • [2] Ciută F. Conceptual notes on energy security: total or banal security?. Security Dialogue 2010; 41(2): 123-144.
  • [3] Yergin D. The new map: energy, climate, and the clash of nations. Penguin Press, 2020.
  • [4] Sovacool B. K. Evaluating energy security in the Asia-Pacific region: A novel methodological approach. Energy Policy 2011; 39(11): 7472-7479.
  • [5] IEA. World energy outlook 2022 (pp. 51-52). International Energy Agency 2022.
  • [6] BP. Statistical review of world energy 2022 (p. 45). British Petroleum 2022.
  • [7] European Commission. REPowerEU: A plan to rapidly reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels and fast forward the green transition (p. 30). [Online]. Available: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/IP_22_3131. Accessed: June 17, 2025.
  • [8] European Council. EU sanctions against Russia over Ukraine (p. 18). [Online]. Available: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions/restrictive-measures-against-russia-over-ukraine/. Accessed: June 17, 2025.
  • [9] OIES. Russia’s oil exports and Asia’s rising role in global energy trade (pp. 16-17). Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. [Online]. Available: https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/russias-oil-exports-and-asias-rising-role-in-global-energy-trade/. Accessed: June 18, 2025.
  • [10] IEA. Gas market report, Q1 2023 (p. 37). International Energy Agency. [Online]. Available: https://www.iea.org/reports/gas-market-report-q1-2023. Accessed: June 18, 2025.
  • [11] CNPC. China’s natural gas import trends and market outlook (p. 12). China National Petroleum Corporation. [Online]. Available: https://www.cnpc.com.cn/en/2023NaturalGasReport/2023NaturalGasReport.shtml. Accessed: June 18, 2025.
  • [12] Gazprom. Power of Siberia gas pipeline project update (p. 5). [Online]. Available: https://www.gazprom.com/projects/power-of-siberia/. Accessed: June 25, 2025.
  • [13] World Bank. Global commodity markets outlook: Coal price trends and forecasts (p. 10). [Online]. Available: https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets. Accessed: June 25, 2025.
  • [14] IEEFA. Coal trade shifts amid Russian sanctions and Asian demand growth (p. 22). Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. [Online]. Available: https://ieefa.org/resources/coal-trade-shifts-amid-russian-sanctions-and-asian-demand-growth. Accessed: June 25, 2025.
  • [15] European Energy Exchange. Gas price developments in European markets (p. 8). [Online]. Available: https://www.eex.com/en/market-data/natural-gas. Accessed: June 25, 2025.
  • [16] Pach-Gurgul A. Development of the LNG market in the EU in the context of Russia-Ukraine war. Central European Review Of Economics & Finance 2023; 44(3): 79-98.
  • [17] Chyong C. K., Shahabuddin M. Securing Europe's net zero path with flexible LNG. Centre on Regulation in Europe (CERRE). Brussels, Belgium, 2024.
  • [18] Zisis G. Strategic implications of energy security: Ukraine-Russia Conflict and EU response. Master Thesis, Law School of the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 2024.
  • [19] Xue J. et al. Toward a secure and resilient energy supply chain (p. 90-131). Global Value Chain Development Report 2023. [Online]. Available: https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/06_gvc23_ch3_dev_report_e.pdf. Accessed: June 25, 2025.
  • [20] Van de Graaf T. The geopolitics of energy after Russia’s war in Ukraine. Forging Europe’s Leadership : Global Trends, Russian Aggression and the Risk of a Regressive World, edited by Giovanni Grevi, Foundation for European Progressive Studies, (pp. 25–40), 2023.
  • [21] Ji Q. et al. New trends in global energy security geopolitics. Springer, 2025.
  • [22] Lin K. C., Reilly T. Northeast Asia’s energy transition–Challenges for a Rules-Based Security and Economic Order. In: Hosoya, Y., Kundnani, H. (eds) The Transformation of the Liberal International Order. SpringerBriefs in International Relations. Springer, Singapore, 2024.
  • [23] Sim L. C. The Arab Gulf states in the Asian energy market: is the Russia-Ukraine war a game changer?. Policy Studies 2024; 45(3-4): 633-652.
  • [24] Umbach F. Strengthening energy security and building resilience in the Asia–Pacific. United Nations-The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP). United Nations publication, 2021.
  • [25] Munarriz Gistau, C. Powering up the European Union: addressing the energy security crisis. Master Thesis, Charles University, 2024.
  • [26] Energy Information Administration (EIA). Europe is a key destination for Russia’s energy exports. [Online]. Available: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51618. Accessed: June 25, 2025.
  • [27] Washington Post. Here’s where Russian oil flows. [Online]. Available: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/03/08/russian-oil-exports/. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [28] EIA. Crude oil and condensate exports from Russia 2021. [Online]. Available: https://share.google/WhAV0ZsKaU1VrHAHn. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [29] VOA News. ‘Power of Siberia 2’ Pipeline could see Europe, China compete for Russian gas. [Online]. Available: https://www.voanews.com/a/power-of-siberia-2-pipeline-could-see-europe-china-compete-for-russian-gas-/6402242.html. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [30] Oil Price. Russia eyes another massive gas pipeline to China. [Online]. Available: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Russia-Eyes-Another-Massive-Gas-Pipeline-To-China.html. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [31] VOA News. ‘Power of Siberia 2’ Pipeline could see Europe, China compete for Russian gas. [Online]. Available: https://www.voanews.com/a/power-of-siberia-2-pipeline-could-see-europe-china-compete-for-russian-gas-/6402242.html. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [32] Wishnick E. Pipeline "Khanfluence": Power of Siberia 2 to go through Mongolia to China. China Resource Risks. [Online]. Available: https://www.chinasresourcerisks.com/post/pipeline-khanfluence-power-of-siberia-2-to-go-through-mongolia-to-china. Accessed: July 12, 2025.
  • [33] Bloomberg Quint. How Russia-China gas pipeline changes energy calculus. [Online]. Available: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-25/how-russia-china-gas-pipeline-changes-energy-calculus-quicktake. Accessed: July 12, 2025.
  • [34] GraphicNews. Russia plannig second gas pipeline to China. [Online]. Available: https://www.graphicnews.com/. Accessed: July 12, 2025.
  • [35] Oil Price. Russia eyes another massive gas pipeline to China. [Online]. Available: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Russia-Eyes-Another-Massive-Gas-Pipeline-To-China.html. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [36] Al Jazeera. Putin hails China oil and gas deals amid tensions with Europe. [Online]. Available: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/2/4/putin-hails-china-oil-and-gas-deals-amid-tensions-with-europe. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [37] Reuters. Putin hails $117.5 bln of China deals as Russia squares off with West. [Online]. Available: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-hails-1175-bln-china-deals-russia-squares-off-with-west-2022-02-04/. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [38] Axios. Western sanctions tie Russia even tighter to China. [Online]. Available: https://www.axios.com/2022/10/10/russia-energy-pivot-china. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [39] British Petrol (BP). Statistical review of world energy 2021. Whitehouse Associates, London, 2021.
  • [40] International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Asia and Pacific. [Online]. Available: https://www.irena.org/How-we-work/Asia-and-Pacific. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [41] Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC). Status of Asia-Pacific energy use and energy trade, 2022.
  • [42] Asia Pacific Energy. Russia Federation crude oil by products, 2022.
  • [43] Asia Pacific Energy. Russia Federation gas exports, by products, 2022.
  • [44] Asia Pacific Energy. Russia Federation coal exports, by products, 2019.
  • [45] Asia Pacific Energy. South Korea crude oil by products, 2022.
  • [46] Gholizadeh, A., et al. Exploring China’s energy situation through One Belt and One Road. In 2019 5th International Conference on Advances in Environment Research (p. 4). 2020.
  • [47] Eurobiz. The role of energy within BRI. [Online]. Available: https://staticeurobiz.europeanchamber.com.cn/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/EURObiz_2018_Nov-Dec-Web.pdf. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [48] South China Morning Post. The Central Asian gas pipeline. [Online]. Available: https://multimedia.scmp.com/news/china/article/One-Belt-One-Road/gasPipeline.html. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [49] ASPAC. Cuba joins Belt And Road Initiative Energy Partnership. [Online]. Available: https://uclg-aspac.org/brlc/2021/11/10/cuba-joins-belt-and-road-initiative-energy-partnership/. Accessed: June 30, 2025.
  • [50] Hua Y., Tong, T. Renewable energy integration in the Belt and Road Initiative: Government expenditure, green finance, and economic growth. [Online]. Available: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960148125016441#preview-section-cited-by. Accessed: August 8, 2025.
  • [51] MERICS. Powering the Belt and Road. [Online]. Available: https://merics.org/en/tracker/powering-belt-and-road. Accessed: July 12, 2025.
Toplam 51 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Enerji
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Cenk Tamer 0000-0002-1331-7942

Ömer Faruk Pekgöz 0009-0005-0092-2114

Gönderilme Tarihi 15 Nisan 2025
Kabul Tarihi 26 Eylül 2025
Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Aralık 2025
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2025 Cilt: 10 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Tamer, C., & Pekgöz, Ö. F. (2025). The effects of the Ukraine War on Russia-China energy relations and regional markets. International Journal of Energy Studies, 10(4), 1393-1426. https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1676674
AMA Tamer C, Pekgöz ÖF. The effects of the Ukraine War on Russia-China energy relations and regional markets. International Journal of Energy Studies. Aralık 2025;10(4):1393-1426. doi:10.58559/ijes.1676674
Chicago Tamer, Cenk, ve Ömer Faruk Pekgöz. “The effects of the Ukraine War on Russia-China energy relations and regional markets”. International Journal of Energy Studies 10, sy. 4 (Aralık 2025): 1393-1426. https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1676674.
EndNote Tamer C, Pekgöz ÖF (01 Aralık 2025) The effects of the Ukraine War on Russia-China energy relations and regional markets. International Journal of Energy Studies 10 4 1393–1426.
IEEE C. Tamer ve Ö. F. Pekgöz, “The effects of the Ukraine War on Russia-China energy relations and regional markets”, International Journal of Energy Studies, c. 10, sy. 4, ss. 1393–1426, 2025, doi: 10.58559/ijes.1676674.
ISNAD Tamer, Cenk - Pekgöz, Ömer Faruk. “The effects of the Ukraine War on Russia-China energy relations and regional markets”. International Journal of Energy Studies 10/4 (Aralık2025), 1393-1426. https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1676674.
JAMA Tamer C, Pekgöz ÖF. The effects of the Ukraine War on Russia-China energy relations and regional markets. International Journal of Energy Studies. 2025;10:1393–1426.
MLA Tamer, Cenk ve Ömer Faruk Pekgöz. “The effects of the Ukraine War on Russia-China energy relations and regional markets”. International Journal of Energy Studies, c. 10, sy. 4, 2025, ss. 1393-26, doi:10.58559/ijes.1676674.
Vancouver Tamer C, Pekgöz ÖF. The effects of the Ukraine War on Russia-China energy relations and regional markets. International Journal of Energy Studies. 2025;10(4):1393-426.