Multi-step hourly electrical load forecasting for a single household: A hybrid deep learning approach based on CNN, BiGRU, and Attention Mechanism

Yıl 2026, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 255 - 274, 17.03.2026

Havva Nur Patat , Mustafa Yasin Erten , Hüseyin Aydilek

https://doi.org/10.58559/ijes.1826202

https://izlik.org/JA96YX78EW

Öz

Accurate electrical load forecasting is crucial for the efficient management of modern power grids. However, the highly variable consumption patterns of single households present a significant challenge, especially for multi-step forecasting, which holds high practical value. This study addresses this challenge by proposing a novel hybrid deep learning model that combines Convolutional Neural Networks, a Bidirectional Gated Recurrent Unit, and an Attention mechanism. The proposed model was trained and tested to forecast the next hour in 6 steps, based on 24 hours of 10-minute interval data. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed architecture, despite the complexity and granularity of the problem, achieves remarkably low error rates, with a Mean Absolute Error  of 0.0393, a Mean Squared Error of 0.0044, and a Root Mean Squared Error of 0.0666. This performance is competitive with results obtained by many state-of-the-art models on single-step forecasting tasks. Consequently, this study makes a unique contribution to the field by presenting an effective and robust solution to the multi-step hourly forecasting problem, a topic less explored in the literature.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Electrical load forecasting , Multi-step forecasting , Convolutional neural networks , Bidirectional gated recurrent unit

Kaynakça

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