Yolsuzluk Algısındaki İyileşme Ekonomik Büyümeyi Destekler mi? Uzun Dönemli Bir Analiz

Öz

Yolsuzluk olgusunun ekonomik büyümeyi belirlemede önemli faktör olduğu uzun zamandır tartışıla gelmektedir. Ancak ampirik çalışmalar, yolsuzluğun ekonomik performans üzerinde doğrudan ve olumsuz bir etkisi olduğu konusunda bilim insanları tarafından genel olarak kabul gördüğünü göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada, yolsuzluğun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi “tekerleri yağlama; tekerlekteki kum” hipotezleri çerçevesinde Türkiye özelinde 1995-2024 dönemi için test edilmiştir. Türkiye’ye özgü analizlerde zaman serisi regresyon modelleri kullanılmıştır. Bu bağlamda çalışmada değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığını analiz etmek için Johansen eşbütünleşme testleri yapılmıştır. Öte yandan, uzun dönemli katsayıları hesaplamak için dinamik en küçük kareler (DOLS) ve tam düzeltilmiş en küçük kareler (FMOLS) tahmin teknikleri kullanılmıştır. Johansen eşbütünleşme analizinden ulaşılan kanıtlar, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir eşbütünleşme ilişkisi olduğunu doğrulamaktadır. FMOLS ve DOLS sonuçları, yolsuzluk, kamu tüketim harcamaları, dışa açıklık, nüfus artışı ve vergi yükünün uzun dönemde Türkiye’de büyüme üzerinde güçlü ve önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğuna işaret etmektedir. FMOLS analizi sonuçlarına göre, yolsuzluk algı endeksindeki artış (yolsuzlukta azalma), ekonomik büyüme sürecine istatistiksel olarak olumlu katkı sağlamaktadır ve “tekerlekteki kum” görüşünü desteklemektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Yolsuzluk Algı Endeksi
• Ekonomik Büyüme
• Tekerlekteki Kum
• Tekerleri Yağlama
• Zaman Serisi Analizi

Does Improving the Perception of Corruption Support Economic Growth? A Long Run Analysis

Öz

Corruption has long been debated as a crucial factor in determining economic growth. However, empirical studies show that scholars generally accept that corruption has a direct and negative impact on economic performance. This study tests the effects of corruption on economic growth in Turkey, specifically for the period 1995-2024, within the framework of the “grease the wheels; sand the wheels” hypothesis. Time-series regression models were used in analyses specific to Turkey. In this context, Johansen cointegration tests were conducted to analyze the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables. Furthermore, dynamic least squares (DOLS) and fully modified least squares (FMOLS) estimation techniques were used to calculate the long run coefficients. The findings from the Johansen cointegration analysis verify the existence of a long run cointegration relationship between the variables. The FMOLS and DOLS results indicate that corruption, public consumption expenditures, openness, population growth, and the tax burden have a significant and substantial influence on long run growth in Turkey. According to the FMOLS analysis results, the increase in the corruption perception index (decline in corruption) statistically contributes positively to the economic growth process, supporting the “sand the wheels” view.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Corruption Perception Index
• Economic Growth
• Sand the Wheels
• Grease the Wheels
• Time Series Analysis

Kaynakça

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