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Risk Factor Analysis in Wind Farm Feasibility Assessments Using the Measure-Correlate-Predict Method

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 230 - 235, 01.03.2015

Öz

In Handong on Jeju Island, South Korea, an investigation was carried out which looked at risk factors in wind farm development. Wind measurement data was collected over a one-year period in Handong, and reference wind data for a fifteen-year period for the same area was collected from a meteorological observatory at Gujwa. The measure-correlate-predict (MCP) method was applied to obtain long-term artificial wind data for Handong, in order to estimate variations in the annual energy production (AEP) and the net present value (NPV) which in turn helped determine the risk factors. The AEP and the NPV were calculated under the assumption of having installed a Vestas 2 MW wind turbine at the measurement site. Various Probabilities of Exceedance (PoEs) were predicted for both the AEP and the NPV in order to clarify the range of possible risk factors. Other economic analyses were also conducted and studied for comparison. The deviation in mean wind speed, the AEP, and the NPV were estimated assuming that the annual average wind speed varies in a cycle of fifteen years. The results showed an NPV deviation of USD 2,612,738 at a probability of exceedance of 50% (P50) within the estimated NPV range, a finding which could not be ignored. The NPV variation (-17% to +24% over fifteen years) was found to be greater than the corresponding variations for either wind speed or the AEP.

Kaynakça

  • D. Han, K. Min, Project Risk Management, Iretech Press, pp.22-23, 2012.
  • C. Li, P. Li, X. Feng, “Analysis of wind power generation operation manage ment risk in China”, Renewable Energy, vol. 64, pp.266-275, 2014.
  • C. Li, G. Lu, S. Wu, “The investment risk analysis of wind power pro ject in China”, Renewable Energy, vol. 50, pp.481-487, 2013.
  • H.H. Goh, S.W. Lee, Q.S. Chua, K.C. Goh, B.C. Ko k, K.T.K. management, challenges and risk”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol.38, pp.917-932, 2014.
  • P. Jain, Wind energy engineering, Mac Graw Hill, 2011.
  • S. Hyun, M. Jang, S. Koh, “Variability Characteristics Analysis of the Long-term Wind and Wind Energy Using MCP Method”, Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society, vol.33, pp.1-8, 2013.
  • K. Ko, K. Kim, J. Huh, “Characteristics of wind variations on Jeju Island, Korea”, International Journal of Energy Research, vol.34, pp.36-45, 2010.
  • Z.O. Olaofe, K.A. Folly, “Statistical Analysis of W ind Resources at Darling for International Journal of Renewable Energy Research, vol.2, pp.250-261, 2012. Energy Production”,
  • E. Svensson, "Performance of long term wind estimat ion method at University of Technology, 2012. Chalme rs
  • M. Nedaei, "Wind energy potential assessment in Chalus county in Iran", International Journal of Renewable Energy Research, vol.2.2, pp.338-347, 2012.
  • IEC 61400-1, Wind turbines – Part 1: Design requirements, 3rd edition, August 2005.
  • EMD, Wind PRO 2.9 - Help manual, pp. 608-612.
  • B.H. Ba iley, P. Beaucage, D.W. Be rnadett, M. Browe r, Wind resource assessment: a p ractical guide to developing a wind project, Wiley, 2012.
  • H. Klug, "What does Exceedance Probabilit ies P-90- P75, P50 Mean?", DEWI Magazin, p.28, 2006.
  • Y. Kim, B. Jang, “A Study of Uncertainty Influences on Wind Farm Develop ment Pro ject and Improve ment Plan Consideration with AHP Analysis”, Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers, 2011, pp. 869-81, 2011.
  • Evaluation Institute of Regional Public Corporation, Feasibility Study Report of Dongbok, Je ju, Je ju Energy Cooperation, 2013.
  • K. Ko, K. Kim, J. Huh, “Variations of wind speed in time on Jeju Island, Korea”, Energy, vol.35, pp.3381- 3387, 2010.
Yıl 2015, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1, 230 - 235, 01.03.2015

Öz

Kaynakça

  • D. Han, K. Min, Project Risk Management, Iretech Press, pp.22-23, 2012.
  • C. Li, P. Li, X. Feng, “Analysis of wind power generation operation manage ment risk in China”, Renewable Energy, vol. 64, pp.266-275, 2014.
  • C. Li, G. Lu, S. Wu, “The investment risk analysis of wind power pro ject in China”, Renewable Energy, vol. 50, pp.481-487, 2013.
  • H.H. Goh, S.W. Lee, Q.S. Chua, K.C. Goh, B.C. Ko k, K.T.K. management, challenges and risk”, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol.38, pp.917-932, 2014.
  • P. Jain, Wind energy engineering, Mac Graw Hill, 2011.
  • S. Hyun, M. Jang, S. Koh, “Variability Characteristics Analysis of the Long-term Wind and Wind Energy Using MCP Method”, Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society, vol.33, pp.1-8, 2013.
  • K. Ko, K. Kim, J. Huh, “Characteristics of wind variations on Jeju Island, Korea”, International Journal of Energy Research, vol.34, pp.36-45, 2010.
  • Z.O. Olaofe, K.A. Folly, “Statistical Analysis of W ind Resources at Darling for International Journal of Renewable Energy Research, vol.2, pp.250-261, 2012. Energy Production”,
  • E. Svensson, "Performance of long term wind estimat ion method at University of Technology, 2012. Chalme rs
  • M. Nedaei, "Wind energy potential assessment in Chalus county in Iran", International Journal of Renewable Energy Research, vol.2.2, pp.338-347, 2012.
  • IEC 61400-1, Wind turbines – Part 1: Design requirements, 3rd edition, August 2005.
  • EMD, Wind PRO 2.9 - Help manual, pp. 608-612.
  • B.H. Ba iley, P. Beaucage, D.W. Be rnadett, M. Browe r, Wind resource assessment: a p ractical guide to developing a wind project, Wiley, 2012.
  • H. Klug, "What does Exceedance Probabilit ies P-90- P75, P50 Mean?", DEWI Magazin, p.28, 2006.
  • Y. Kim, B. Jang, “A Study of Uncertainty Influences on Wind Farm Develop ment Pro ject and Improve ment Plan Consideration with AHP Analysis”, Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers, 2011, pp. 869-81, 2011.
  • Evaluation Institute of Regional Public Corporation, Feasibility Study Report of Dongbok, Je ju, Je ju Energy Cooperation, 2013.
  • K. Ko, K. Kim, J. Huh, “Variations of wind speed in time on Jeju Island, Korea”, Energy, vol.35, pp.3381- 3387, 2010.
Toplam 17 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Bölüm Articles
Yazarlar

Hyojeong Kim Bu kişi benim

Kyungnam Ko Bu kişi benim

Jongchul Huh Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Mart 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2015 Cilt: 5 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Kim, H., Ko, K., & Huh, J. (2015). Risk Factor Analysis in Wind Farm Feasibility Assessments Using the Measure-Correlate-Predict Method. International Journal Of Renewable Energy Research, 5(1), 230-235.
AMA Kim H, Ko K, Huh J. Risk Factor Analysis in Wind Farm Feasibility Assessments Using the Measure-Correlate-Predict Method. International Journal Of Renewable Energy Research. Mart 2015;5(1):230-235.
Chicago Kim, Hyojeong, Kyungnam Ko, ve Jongchul Huh. “Risk Factor Analysis in Wind Farm Feasibility Assessments Using the Measure-Correlate-Predict Method”. International Journal Of Renewable Energy Research 5, sy. 1 (Mart 2015): 230-35.
EndNote Kim H, Ko K, Huh J (01 Mart 2015) Risk Factor Analysis in Wind Farm Feasibility Assessments Using the Measure-Correlate-Predict Method. International Journal Of Renewable Energy Research 5 1 230–235.
IEEE H. Kim, K. Ko, ve J. Huh, “Risk Factor Analysis in Wind Farm Feasibility Assessments Using the Measure-Correlate-Predict Method”, International Journal Of Renewable Energy Research, c. 5, sy. 1, ss. 230–235, 2015.
ISNAD Kim, Hyojeong vd. “Risk Factor Analysis in Wind Farm Feasibility Assessments Using the Measure-Correlate-Predict Method”. International Journal Of Renewable Energy Research 5/1 (Mart 2015), 230-235.
JAMA Kim H, Ko K, Huh J. Risk Factor Analysis in Wind Farm Feasibility Assessments Using the Measure-Correlate-Predict Method. International Journal Of Renewable Energy Research. 2015;5:230–235.
MLA Kim, Hyojeong vd. “Risk Factor Analysis in Wind Farm Feasibility Assessments Using the Measure-Correlate-Predict Method”. International Journal Of Renewable Energy Research, c. 5, sy. 1, 2015, ss. 230-5.
Vancouver Kim H, Ko K, Huh J. Risk Factor Analysis in Wind Farm Feasibility Assessments Using the Measure-Correlate-Predict Method. International Journal Of Renewable Energy Research. 2015;5(1):230-5.