GEOPOLITICS OF CASPIAN OIL AND GAS

Abstract

This paper provides an analysis of increasing geopolitical competition over energy rich Central Asia and Caucasus by key actors such as the U.S.A., Russia and China. In addition to an evaluation of the region’s future as an energy hub both for East and West, this paper examines how the regional conflicts such as the August 2008 war between Russia and Georgia might affect prospects for Caspian energy development and export. Even though both Russia and China have a common goal of countering Western, particularly U.S., influence in the region, they both have their own agenda and distinct relationships with Western countries. In terms of oil and natural gas, only Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have the potential to play significant roles in the future. However the entire region will continue to be major area of conflict or cooperation for global powers

Keywords

• Energy, Central Asia, Caucasus, Russia, China, U.S.A.

Kaynakça

1. Aydın, Mustafa (1999), “Regional Security Issues and Conflicts in the Caucasus and the Caspian Regions”, (in: Kurt R. Spillmann and Joachim Krause- Ed, Studies in Contemporary History and Security Policy Vol. 3), Bern: Peter Lang, pp. 117- 139.
2. Cornell, Svante, Mamuka Tsereteli and Vladimir Socor (2005), Geostrategic Implications of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline, Washington D.C.: Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program (CACI-SRSP), John Hopkins University.
3. Emadi, Seyed Emed and Hameed Nezhad (2011), Energy Market for Caspian Sea Oil and its Supply, International Black Sea University Scienetific Journal, Vol. 5, No. 2, pp. 21
4. Estrada, Aurelia Mané (2009), Central Asia: Moving Towards Alternative Vision of
5. Energy Relations, Elcano Royal Institute, Asia-Pasific/ Central Asia Observatory Working Paper 56, Madrid: Elcano Royal Institute. Finley, Mark (2012), The Oil Market to 2030: Implications for Investment and Policy,
6. Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy, Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 25-36. Fontevecchia, Agustino (2012), Stick with Oil: Natural Gas Prices Still Too Far From
7. Covering Production Costs, Forbes Magazine, http://www.forbes.com/sites/afontevecchia/2012/07/23/stick-with-oil-natural-gas-prices- still-far-from-covering-production-costs/ (Accessed 1. 9. 2012)
8. Haas, Marcel, Adrej Tibolt, Vincent Cillesen, (2006), Geo-Strategy in the South

9. Caucasus, The Hague, Netherlands: Institute of International Relations. Hussain, Nazir (2010), The Dynamics of International Energy Dependence: A
10. Comparative Analysis of the Gulf and Caspian Oil, , Islamabad: The Institute of Strategic Studies. Indexmundi, http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil- brent&months=300 (Accessed September 12, 2012).
11. International Energy Agency (2008), World Energy Outlook 2008, http://www.iea.org/w/bookshop/add.aspx?id=353, (Accessed 8. 8. 2012)
12. International Energy Agency (2009), World Energy Outlook 2009, http://www.iea.org/W/bookshop/add.aspx?id=388 (Accessed 8. 8. 2012)
13. Marketos, Thrassy N. (2009), Eastern Caspian Sea Energy Geopolitics: A Litmus Test for the U.S. – Russia – China Struggle for the Geostrategic Control of Eurasia, Caucasian review of International Affairs, vol. 3, No. 1, pp. 2-19.
14. Milliyet (2008), BTC Hattındaki Patlamayı PKK Üstlendi, http://www.milliyet.com.tr/Guncel/HaberDetay.aspx?aType=HaberDetay&Kategori=gun cel&ArticleID=976046 (Accessed, 7. 7. 2012).
15. New York Times (2006), Blasts on Gas Pipeline Send a Message, http://www.nytimes.com/2006/01/24/world/europe/24iht-georgia.html?_r=0, (Accessed, 7. 2012).
16. Nye, Robert (2005), Soft Power: The means to Success in World Politics, Canada: Public Affairs.
17. Olcott, Martha Brill (2010), Central Asia’s Oil and Gas Reserves: To Whom Do They
18. Matter?, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 257-300. Paillard, Christophe- Alexandre, (2006) “Rethinking Russia : Russia and Europe’s
19. Mutual Energy Dependence”, Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 63, No. 2, pp. 65-84. Pipinashvili, David (2011), Sino-Russian Geopolitical Interest in Central Asia and South
20. Caucasus, Bulletin of the Georgian National Academy of Sciences, vol 5 no 2, pp. 144- Radio Free Europe, RFL/ RL Newsline (2006), Sabotage in North Caucasus Disrupts
21. Energy Supplies to Georgia, Armenia, http://www.hri.org/news/balkans/rferl/2006/06-01- rferl.html, (7. 7. 2012).
22. Tomberg, Igor (2008), Impact of Five-Day War on Global Energy, http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10042 (Accessed 28. 7. 2012).
23. Tsereteli, Mamuka (2009), The Impact of the Russia Georgia war on the South Caucasus
24. Transportation Corridor, Washington D.C.: Jamestown Foundation, http://www.jamestown.org/programs/recentreports/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=34654&tx
25. _ttnews[backPid]=7&cHash=54b53bf6cc (Accessed, 2. 9. 2012).
26. Zhengang, Ma (2009), A Brief review of current international situation and China’s
27. Diplomacy, China International Studies, Vol.15, No. 2, pp. 4-15. Zhuanghi, Sun (2007), “The relationship between China and Central Asia”, (in: I. Akihro- Ed., Eager eyes fixed on Eurasia), Sapporo, Japan: Slavic Research Center, Hokkaido University, pp. 41-63.