The Validity of Open Economy Monetary Policy Rule in Turkey: A Bounds Test Approach

Öz

The aim of this study is to investigate validity of open economy monetary policy rule in Turkey. In this study, covering the period 2001M8-2009M9 that the inflation targeting strategy is implemented, short time nominal interest rate, the inflation rate that is calculated from the consumer price index, real output gap, and real effective exchange rate index variables are used. The results of Bounds test analysis show that open economy monetary policy rule is still valid for Turkey, that there is positive effect of inflation and output gap; and negative effect of exchange rate on the short term interest rate. According to the analysis results, Central Bank reacts to inflation rate, output gap and exchange rate with little while determining the interest rate.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Taylor rule, short run interest rate, inflation targeting, output gap, bounds test

Türkiye’de Açık Ekonomi Para Politikası Kuralının Geçerliliği:Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Öz

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de açık ekonomi para politikası kuralının geçerliliğini tespit etmektir. Enflasyon hedeflemesi stratejisinin uygulandığı 2001:8-2009:9 dönemini kapsayan bu çalışmada, kısa dönem nominal faiz oranı, tüketici fiyat endeksinden hareketle hesaplanan enflasyon ve reel üretim açığı ile reel efektif kur endeksi değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Sınır testi analizinin sonuçları, açık ekonomi para politikası kuralının Türkiye için geçerli olduğunu, kısa dönem faiz oranı üzerinde enflasyon ve üretim açığının pozitif, döviz kurunun ise negatif bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, Merkez Bankası faiz belirleme sürecinde, enflasyon oranının dışında üretim açığına ve küçükte olsa döviz kuruna tepki vermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Taylor kuralı, kısa dönem faiz oranı, enflasyon hedeflemesi, üretim açığı, sınır testi

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