BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster
Yıl 2015, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 2, 109 - 129, 01.06.2015

Öz

In this study effects of banking sector total credit volume expansion on unemployment were analysed separately by means of unit root test with multiple structural breaks of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009), cointegration test with multiple structural breaks of Maki (2012) and dynamic ordinary least square method for 1986-2013; 2000:Q1-2013:Q2 and 2005:M01-2013:M05 period. As a result of the analysis it was determined that credit volume increases have got a reducing effect on unemployment in Turkey

Kaynakça

  • Açıkgöz, Ş. Balcılar, M. ve Saraçoğlu, B. (2012). Openness and Financial Development: Time Series Evidence for Turkey. International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance. 12(4), 172 - 201.
  • Aslan, Ö. ve Küçükaksoy, I. (2006). Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama. Ekonometri ve İstatistik. 4, 12- 8.
  • Aizenman, J., Pinto, B. ve Sushko, V. (2013). Financial Sector Ups and Downs and the Real Sector in the Open Economy: Up by the Stairs, Down by the Parachute. BIS WP, No: 411.
  • Bai, J. ve Perron, P. (2003). Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 18, 1-22.
  • Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. (2011). The Transmission Channels Between the Financial and Real Sectors: A Critical Survey of the Literature. WP. No: 18.
  • BDDK. (2012). Finansal Piyasalar Raporu, Aralık, Ankara.
  • Benmelech, E., Bergman, N.K. ve Seru, A. (2011). Finance and Unemployment, NBER Working Paper. No: 17144.
  • Berk, J.M. (1998). Monetary Transmission: What Do We Know and How Can We Use It? Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review. 51 (205), 145-170.
  • Bernanke, B.S. ve Blinder, A.S. (1992). The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission. The American Economic Review. 82(4), 901-921.
  • Bernanke, B. (1993). Credit in the Macroeconomy, Federal Reserve Bank of Newyork Quarterly Review. 18(1), 50-70.
  • Bernanke, B.S. ve Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 9(4), 27-48.
  • Bertrand, M., Schoar, A. ve Thesmar, D. (2007). Banking Deregulation and Industry Structure: Evidence from the French Banking Reforms of 1985. Journal of Finance. 62(2), 597-628.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L. ve Sanso, A. (2006). Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 68(5), 623-646.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L., Kim, D ve Perron, P. (2009). GLS-Based Unit Root Tests with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses. Econometric Theory. 25, 1754-1792.
  • Castillo, P.J. (2009). Unemployment Threat of the Financial Crisis. Asia-Pacific Social Science Review. 9(1), 41-46.
  • Cecchetti, S.G. (1999). Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review. 9-28.
  • Cengiz, V. ve Duman, M. (2008). Türkiye’de Banka Kredi Kanalının Önemi Üzerine Etki Tepki Fonksiyonlarına Dayalı Bir Değerlendirme (1990-2006). Hacettepe Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi. 26(2), 81-104.
  • Cengiz, V. (2009). Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması İşleyişi ve Ampirik Bulgular. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 33, 225-247.
  • Ceylan, S. ve Durkaya, M. (2010). Türkiye’de Kredi Kullanımı-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 24(2), 21-33.
  • Clausen, V.V. (2002). Unterschiedliche Makroökonomische Strukturen Wirtschaftliche Integration und Einheitliche Geldpolitik in Europa. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik. 222(1), 1-21.
  • Çiçek, M. (2005). Türkiye’de Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması: VAR (Vektör Otoregresyon) Yaklaşımıyla Bir Analiz. İktisat İşletme ve Finans. 233, 82-105.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. 1st ed. New York: Wiley.
  • Enders, W. (1996). Rats Handbook for Econometric Time Series. John Willey and Song Inc.
  • Erim, N. ve Türk, A. ( 2005). Finansal Gelişme ve İktisadi Büyüme. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 2(10), 21-45.
  • Esteve, V. ve Requena, F. (2006). A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presenceof Structural Change. International Journal of the Economics of Business. 13(1), 111-128.
  • Federici, D. ve Caprioli, F. (2009). Financial Development and Growth: An Empirical Analysis. Economic Modelling. 26, 285–294.
  • Gregory, A.W. ve Hansen, B.E. (1996). Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models With Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics. 70(1), 99-126.
  • Gujarati, D.N. (1999). Basic Econometrics. Mc Graw Hill. 3rd Edition. İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
  • Gündüz, L. (2001). Türkiye’de Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması ve Banka Kredi Kanalı. İMKB Dergisi. 5(18), 13-30.
  • Han, C.K. (2009). Unemployment, Financial Hardship, and Savings in Individual Development Accounts. Journal of Poverty. 13(1), 74-95.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Tests For Cointegration With Two Unknown Regime Shifts With an Application to Financial Market Integration. Empirical Economics. 35, 497-505.
  • Lee, J. ve Strazicich, M.C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lumsdaine, R.L. ve Papell, D.H. (1997). Multiple Trend Breaks and The Unit Root Hypothesis. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 79, 212-218.
  • Maki, D. (2012). Tests For Cointegration Allowing For an Unknown Number of Breaks. Economic Modelling. 29(5), 2011-2015.
  • McCaig, B. ve Stengos, T. (2005). Financial Intermediation and Growth: Some Robustness Results. Economics Letters. 88(3), 306–312.
  • Mishkin, F.S. (1995). Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. 9(4), 3-10.
  • Mishkin, F.S. (2004). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, 7th Edition, The Addison-Wesley Series in Economics, USA.
  • Ng, S. ve Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometric. 69, 1519-1554.
  • Nilsen, J.H. (2002). Trade Credit and the Bank Lending Channel. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 31(9), 226-253.
  • Oliner, S.D. ve Rudebusch, G.D. (1996). Is There a Broad Credit Channel for Monetary Policy? Federal Reserve Bank Kansas of San Francisco Economic Review. 1, 3-13.
  • Öztürkler, H. ve Çermikli, A.H. (2007). Türkiye'de Bir Parasal Aktarım Kanalı Olarak Banka Kredileri. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar. 44(514), 57-68.
  • Pagano, M. ve Pica, G. (2012). Finance and Employment. Economic Policy. 27(69), 5-55.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica. 57(2), 1361-1401.
  • Perron, P. (1997). Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Veriables. Journal of Econometrics. 80, 355-385.
  • Rajan, R.G. ve Zingales, L. (2003). Saving Capitalism from Capitalist. New York, Crown Business.
  • Romer, C.D. ve Romer, D.H. (1993). Credit Channel or Credit Actions? An Interpretation of the Postwar Transmission Mechanism. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review. 71-149.
  • Saint-Paul, G. (2007). Alternative Strategies for Fighting Unemployment: Lessons from the European Experience. IDEI Working Papers. No: 446.
  • Shabbir, G., Anwar, Sofia, H.Z. ve Imran, M. (2012). Contribution of Financial Sector Development in Reducing Unemployment in Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Finance. 4(1), 260-268.
  • Stiglitz, E.J. ve Weiss, A. (1981). Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information. American Economic Review. 77(3), 393-410.
  • Stock, J. ve Watson, M.W. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems. Econometrica. 61(4), 783-820.
  • Şenkesen, E. (2001). Banka Kredi Kanalı ve Banka Kredi Kanalının VAR Modeli ile Testi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. İstanbul: Marmara Üniversitesi, Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Enstitüsü.
  • Telatar, E. (2002). Fiyat İstikrarı: Ne? Nasıl? Kimin İçin? Ankara: İmaj Yayıncılık.
  • Thesmar, D. ve Thoenig, M. (2004). Financial Market Development and the Rise in Firm Level Uncertainity. CEPR Discussion Paper. No: 4761.
  • Tuğcu, C.T. ve Aslan, A. (2012). Financial Development and Employment: A VAR Analysis for the Case of Turkey. Clute Institute International Conference. Rome, Italy, 561- 565

Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi

Yıl 2015, Cilt: 17 Sayı: 2, 109 - 129, 01.06.2015

Öz

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de bankacılık sektörü toplam kredi hacminin işsizlik üzerindeki etkileri, Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2009) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi, Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eştümleşme testi ve dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemi yardımıyla, 1986-2013; 2000:Q1-2013:Q2 ve 2005:M01-2013:M05 dönemleri için ayrı ayrı analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda, Türkiye’de kredi hacmindeki artışların, işsizlik oranını azaltıcı etkiye sahip olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Açıkgöz, Ş. Balcılar, M. ve Saraçoğlu, B. (2012). Openness and Financial Development: Time Series Evidence for Turkey. International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance. 12(4), 172 - 201.
  • Aslan, Ö. ve Küçükaksoy, I. (2006). Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama. Ekonometri ve İstatistik. 4, 12- 8.
  • Aizenman, J., Pinto, B. ve Sushko, V. (2013). Financial Sector Ups and Downs and the Real Sector in the Open Economy: Up by the Stairs, Down by the Parachute. BIS WP, No: 411.
  • Bai, J. ve Perron, P. (2003). Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 18, 1-22.
  • Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. (2011). The Transmission Channels Between the Financial and Real Sectors: A Critical Survey of the Literature. WP. No: 18.
  • BDDK. (2012). Finansal Piyasalar Raporu, Aralık, Ankara.
  • Benmelech, E., Bergman, N.K. ve Seru, A. (2011). Finance and Unemployment, NBER Working Paper. No: 17144.
  • Berk, J.M. (1998). Monetary Transmission: What Do We Know and How Can We Use It? Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review. 51 (205), 145-170.
  • Bernanke, B.S. ve Blinder, A.S. (1992). The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission. The American Economic Review. 82(4), 901-921.
  • Bernanke, B. (1993). Credit in the Macroeconomy, Federal Reserve Bank of Newyork Quarterly Review. 18(1), 50-70.
  • Bernanke, B.S. ve Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives. 9(4), 27-48.
  • Bertrand, M., Schoar, A. ve Thesmar, D. (2007). Banking Deregulation and Industry Structure: Evidence from the French Banking Reforms of 1985. Journal of Finance. 62(2), 597-628.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L. ve Sanso, A. (2006). Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 68(5), 623-646.
  • Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L., Kim, D ve Perron, P. (2009). GLS-Based Unit Root Tests with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses. Econometric Theory. 25, 1754-1792.
  • Castillo, P.J. (2009). Unemployment Threat of the Financial Crisis. Asia-Pacific Social Science Review. 9(1), 41-46.
  • Cecchetti, S.G. (1999). Legal Structure, Financial Structure, and Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review. 9-28.
  • Cengiz, V. ve Duman, M. (2008). Türkiye’de Banka Kredi Kanalının Önemi Üzerine Etki Tepki Fonksiyonlarına Dayalı Bir Değerlendirme (1990-2006). Hacettepe Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi. 26(2), 81-104.
  • Cengiz, V. (2009). Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması İşleyişi ve Ampirik Bulgular. Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 33, 225-247.
  • Ceylan, S. ve Durkaya, M. (2010). Türkiye’de Kredi Kullanımı-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi. 24(2), 21-33.
  • Clausen, V.V. (2002). Unterschiedliche Makroökonomische Strukturen Wirtschaftliche Integration und Einheitliche Geldpolitik in Europa. Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik. 222(1), 1-21.
  • Çiçek, M. (2005). Türkiye’de Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması: VAR (Vektör Otoregresyon) Yaklaşımıyla Bir Analiz. İktisat İşletme ve Finans. 233, 82-105.
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied Econometric Time Series. 1st ed. New York: Wiley.
  • Enders, W. (1996). Rats Handbook for Econometric Time Series. John Willey and Song Inc.
  • Erim, N. ve Türk, A. ( 2005). Finansal Gelişme ve İktisadi Büyüme. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 2(10), 21-45.
  • Esteve, V. ve Requena, F. (2006). A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presenceof Structural Change. International Journal of the Economics of Business. 13(1), 111-128.
  • Federici, D. ve Caprioli, F. (2009). Financial Development and Growth: An Empirical Analysis. Economic Modelling. 26, 285–294.
  • Gregory, A.W. ve Hansen, B.E. (1996). Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models With Regime Shifts. Journal of Econometrics. 70(1), 99-126.
  • Gujarati, D.N. (1999). Basic Econometrics. Mc Graw Hill. 3rd Edition. İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
  • Gündüz, L. (2001). Türkiye’de Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması ve Banka Kredi Kanalı. İMKB Dergisi. 5(18), 13-30.
  • Han, C.K. (2009). Unemployment, Financial Hardship, and Savings in Individual Development Accounts. Journal of Poverty. 13(1), 74-95.
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Tests For Cointegration With Two Unknown Regime Shifts With an Application to Financial Market Integration. Empirical Economics. 35, 497-505.
  • Lee, J. ve Strazicich, M.C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test With Two Structural Breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lumsdaine, R.L. ve Papell, D.H. (1997). Multiple Trend Breaks and The Unit Root Hypothesis. The Review of Economics and Statistics. 79, 212-218.
  • Maki, D. (2012). Tests For Cointegration Allowing For an Unknown Number of Breaks. Economic Modelling. 29(5), 2011-2015.
  • McCaig, B. ve Stengos, T. (2005). Financial Intermediation and Growth: Some Robustness Results. Economics Letters. 88(3), 306–312.
  • Mishkin, F.S. (1995). Symposium on the Monetary Transmission Mechanism. The Journal of Economic Perspectives. 9(4), 3-10.
  • Mishkin, F.S. (2004). The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets, 7th Edition, The Addison-Wesley Series in Economics, USA.
  • Ng, S. ve Perron, P. (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power. Econometric. 69, 1519-1554.
  • Nilsen, J.H. (2002). Trade Credit and the Bank Lending Channel. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 31(9), 226-253.
  • Oliner, S.D. ve Rudebusch, G.D. (1996). Is There a Broad Credit Channel for Monetary Policy? Federal Reserve Bank Kansas of San Francisco Economic Review. 1, 3-13.
  • Öztürkler, H. ve Çermikli, A.H. (2007). Türkiye'de Bir Parasal Aktarım Kanalı Olarak Banka Kredileri. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar. 44(514), 57-68.
  • Pagano, M. ve Pica, G. (2012). Finance and Employment. Economic Policy. 27(69), 5-55.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica. 57(2), 1361-1401.
  • Perron, P. (1997). Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Veriables. Journal of Econometrics. 80, 355-385.
  • Rajan, R.G. ve Zingales, L. (2003). Saving Capitalism from Capitalist. New York, Crown Business.
  • Romer, C.D. ve Romer, D.H. (1993). Credit Channel or Credit Actions? An Interpretation of the Postwar Transmission Mechanism. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review. 71-149.
  • Saint-Paul, G. (2007). Alternative Strategies for Fighting Unemployment: Lessons from the European Experience. IDEI Working Papers. No: 446.
  • Shabbir, G., Anwar, Sofia, H.Z. ve Imran, M. (2012). Contribution of Financial Sector Development in Reducing Unemployment in Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Finance. 4(1), 260-268.
  • Stiglitz, E.J. ve Weiss, A. (1981). Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information. American Economic Review. 77(3), 393-410.
  • Stock, J. ve Watson, M.W. (1993). A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems. Econometrica. 61(4), 783-820.
  • Şenkesen, E. (2001). Banka Kredi Kanalı ve Banka Kredi Kanalının VAR Modeli ile Testi. Yüksek Lisans Tezi. İstanbul: Marmara Üniversitesi, Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Enstitüsü.
  • Telatar, E. (2002). Fiyat İstikrarı: Ne? Nasıl? Kimin İçin? Ankara: İmaj Yayıncılık.
  • Thesmar, D. ve Thoenig, M. (2004). Financial Market Development and the Rise in Firm Level Uncertainity. CEPR Discussion Paper. No: 4761.
  • Tuğcu, C.T. ve Aslan, A. (2012). Financial Development and Employment: A VAR Analysis for the Case of Turkey. Clute Institute International Conference. Rome, Italy, 561- 565
Toplam 54 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Diğer ID JA22UT88ED
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Yard. Doç. Dr. İsmet Göçer Bu kişi benim

Yayımlanma Tarihi 1 Haziran 2015
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2015 Cilt: 17 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Göçer, Y. D. D. İ. (2015). Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi. ISGUC The Journal of Industrial Relations and Human Resources, 17(2), 109-129.
AMA Göçer YDDİ. Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi. isguc. Haziran 2015;17(2):109-129.
Chicago Göçer, Yard. Doç. Dr. İsmet. “Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi”. ISGUC The Journal of Industrial Relations and Human Resources 17, sy. 2 (Haziran 2015): 109-29.
EndNote Göçer YDDİ (01 Haziran 2015) Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi. ISGUC The Journal of Industrial Relations and Human Resources 17 2 109–129.
IEEE Y. D. D. İ. Göçer, “Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi”, isguc, c. 17, sy. 2, ss. 109–129, 2015.
ISNAD Göçer, Yard. Doç. Dr. İsmet. “Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi”. ISGUC The Journal of Industrial Relations and Human Resources 17/2 (Haziran 2015), 109-129.
JAMA Göçer YDDİ. Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi. isguc. 2015;17:109–129.
MLA Göçer, Yard. Doç. Dr. İsmet. “Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi”. ISGUC The Journal of Industrial Relations and Human Resources, c. 17, sy. 2, 2015, ss. 109-2.
Vancouver Göçer YDDİ. Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi Genişlemesinin İşsizlik Üzerindeki Etkileri: Çoklu Yapısal Kırılmalı Eştümleşme Analizi. isguc. 2015;17(2):109-2.