OPTİMUM DUVAR YALITIMI KALINLIKLARININ ÜLKE ÇAPINDA HARİTALANMASI: STOKASTİK YAKLAŞIM

Öz

Binalarda enerji tüketimi tüm dünyadaki birincil enerji tüketiminin önemli bir kısmına karşılık gelmektedir. Bina sektörü ayrıca sera gazı salınımını düşürerek çevresel etkinin azaltılmasına yönelik büyük bir potansiyel teşkil etmektedir. Gelişmekte olan birçok ülkenin ulusal stratejileri enerjinin korunmasına ilişkin konularla şekillenmektedir. Enerji verimliliğinin ve üretkenliğin arttırılması Türkiye ulusal enerji stratejisinin ana unsurlarından birisi olarak belirtilmiştir. Bina kılıfına yalıtım uygulamak binalarda enerji tüketimini azaltmak için etkili bir yoldur. Dış duvarlara uygulanacak olan optimum yalıtım kalınlığının belirlenmesi önem arz etmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye’deki 81 ilin optimum yalıtım kalınlığını belirlemek amacıyla stokastik bir yaklaşım benimsenmiştir. Yaygın olarak kullanılan deterministik yaklaşımın aksine, stokastik yaklaşım sürecin olasılıksal doğasını bünyesinde barındırır ve optimum yalıtım kalınlığını tek bir değer yerine bir olasılık dağılım grafiği olarak sunar. Bu amaçla, birtakım yalıtım kalınlıkları (1-20 cm) alternatif olarak kabul edilmiş ve optimum alternatif yalıtım uygulamasının maliyeti ile yıllık enerji tasarruflarını dikkate alan bir yaşam dönemi maliyet analizi yapılarak belirlenmiştir. Şehirlerin aylık ortalama sıcaklıkları ve enflasyon ile iskonto oranları gibi finansal parametreler stokastik elemanlar olarak kabul edilmiştir. Yaşam dönemi maliyet analizinin sonuçları (i) her bir şehir için optimum yalıtım kalınlığını bir olasılık dağılım grafiği olarak elde etmek ve (ii) Türkiye için bir optimum yalıtım kalınlığı haritası oluşturmak amacıyla kullanılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Stokastik analiz
• Optimum yalıtım kalınlığı
• Duvar yalıtımı
• Enerji tasarrufu

NATIONWIDE MAPPING OF OPTIMUM WALL INSULATION THICKNESSES: A STOCHASTIC APPROACH

Öz

Energy consumption in buildings accounts for a notable part of the primary energy consumption all over the world. The building industry also has a great potential to decrease the environmental impact by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The national strategies of many developing countries are shaped by energy conservation issues. Improving energy efficiency and productivity is stated as one of the main elements of the Turkish national energy strategy. An efficient way to decrease energy consumption in buildings is to implement insulation on the building envelope. Identifying the optimum insulation thickness to be applied on the exterior walls is of prime importance. This study adapts a stochastic approach to determine optimum insulation thickness for 81 cities in Turkey. The stochastic approach, unlike the commonly used deterministic approach, incorporates the probabilistic nature of the process and presents the optimum insulation thickness as a probability distribution graph rather than a single value. For this purpose, a number of insulation thicknesses (1-20 cm) were regarded as the alternatives and the optimum alternative was determined based on life cycle costing analysis involving the cost of insulation application and annual energy savings. The average monthly temperature of each city and financial parameters such as the inflation and discount rates were considered as the stochastic elements. The results of the life cycle costing analysis were used to (i) identify the optimum thicknesses in each city as a probability distribution graph and (ii) generate an optimum insulation thickness map for Turkey.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Stochastic analysis
• Optimum insulation thickness
• Wall insulation
• Energy saving.

Kaynakça

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