Gelecekteki İklim Senaryoları Altında Çoklu İklim Bölgelerinde Konut Tipi Gölgeleme Elemanlarının İklim Dayanıklılığının Değerlendirilmesi

Öz

İklim değişikliği, insanlığın son ve gelecek on yıllarda karşı karşıya olduğu en kritik çevresel olgudur ve etkileri ısı dalgalarını şiddetlendirerek soğutma enerjisi talebini artırmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, gölgeleme elemanları, aşırı ısınmayı azaltmak ve iç mekân termal konforunu sürdürmek için temel, düşük maliyetli pasif stratejiler olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışma, hem tarihsel hem de gelecekteki iklim senaryoları (RCP 4.5 ve RCP 8.5, yüzyıl ortası ve sonu dönemleri için) altında, Csa (Akdeniz), BSk–BSh (yarı kurak) ve BWh (sıcak çöl) iklim kuşaklarını kapsayan çoklu Cezayir iklim bölgelerinde konut tipi gölgeleme elemanlarının iklim dayanıklılığını, enerji ve termal performansını değerlendirmektedir. ASHRAE Kılavuz 14 ile doğrulanan ve Baskın Olmayan Sıralama Genetik Algoritması (NSGA-II) aracılığıyla optimize edilen EnergyPlus dinamik simülasyonları kullanılarak, tek ve çift düşük yayınımlı (Low-E) cam ile konvansiyonel ve yalıtımlı duvarların kombinasyonunda toplam on dört gölgeleme yapılandırması test edilmiştir. Sonuçlar, yumurta sandığı biçimindeki ve yan kanatlarla birleştirilmiş güneşlikler gibi birleşik 3B gölgeleme sistemlerinin, çift Low-E camlar ile birleştirildiğinde güneş kazanımlarında %60–80'e varan azalma sağladığını ortaya koymaktadır. Tersine, basit çıkmalar veya tek yan kanatlar gibi tek elemanlı sistemler, gelecekteki aşırı kurak koşullar altında daha düşük performans ve daha az kararlılık göstermektedir. Varyans, çeyrekler arası aralık, uyum ve yüzde değerlerinden oluşan eşit ağırlıklı toplamsal birleştirme ile oluşturulan Bileşik Dayanıklılık İndeksi (CRI), birleşik ve daha derin gölgeleme sistemlerinin gelecekteki iklim koşulları altında tutarlı biçimde daha yüksek dayanıklılığa sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bulgular, uyarlanabilir gölgeleme tasarımının, öngörülen iklim koşulları altında konut binaları için kritik önemde olduğunu doğrulamaktadır. Uygun yalıtımlı kabuklarla entegre edilen gölgeleme sistemleri, dayanıklılığı önemli ölçüde artırabilir, soğutma enerjisi talebini azaltabilir ve Akdeniz ile Kuzey Afrika kentlerinde düşük karbonlu ve iklime duyarlı bir mimariye geçişi destekleyebilir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• İklim dayanıklılık indeksi
• Gölgeleme elemanları
• Simülasyon
• İklim değişikliği
• Çoklu iklim bölgeleri

Assessing the Climate Robustness of Residential Shading Devices across Multiple Climate Zones under Future Climate Scenarios

Öz

Climate change is the most critical environmental phenomenon humanity is facing in recent and coming decades, and its impacts are intensifying heat waves and increasing cooling energy demand. In this context, shading devices emerge as essential low-cost passive strategy to mitigate overheating and maintaining indoor thermal comfort. This study assesses the climate robustness, energy, and thermal performance of residential shading devices across multiple Algerian climate zones, Mediterranean (Csa), semi-arid (BSk, BSh), and hot desert climate (BWh), under both historical and future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for mid- and end-century horizons). Using EnergyPlus dynamic simulations, validated through ASHRAE Guideline 14 and optimized via the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II), fourteen shading configurations were tested in combination with single and double low-emissivity (Low-E) glazing and both conventional and insulated walls. The results reveal that combined 3D shading systems, such as egg-crate and overhangs combined with side fins, achieve the highest cuts in solar gains, up to 60–80% when coupled with double Low-E glazing. Conversely, simple single-element devices, such as basic overhangs or side fins, show lower performance and reduced stability under future extreme arid conditions. A Composite Robustness Index (CRI) constructed through an equally weighted additive aggregation of variance, interquartile range, coherence, and percentile metrics, demonstrates that combined and deeper shading devices maintain consistently higher robustness under future climate conditions. The findings affirm that adaptive shading design is crucial for residential buildings under projected climate conditions. Integrating shading with appropriate insulated envelopes can substantially enhance resilience, reduce cooling energy demand, and support a smooth transition toward low-carbon, and climate-responsive architecture in Mediterranean and North African cities.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Climate robustness index
• Shading devices
• Simulation
• Climate change
• Multi-climate zones

Kaynakça

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