Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Brazil: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 5 Sayı: 3, 191 - 202, 24.10.2020

Tuğba Koyuncu , Hüseyin Demirhan

https://doi.org/10.23834/isrjournal.674985

Cited By: 2

Öz

For developing countries, sustainable economic growth is one of the key macroeconomic objective. However not every country has enough capital to support GDP growth. Even that the country hasn’t enough national capital, the government can borrow some capital as external debt to support GDP growth. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between economic growth and external debt fort he Brazilian economy. In this study, the effect of various variables such as the ratio of external debt to GDP, ratio of debt service stock to GDP, the ratio of national expenditure to GDP, real Exchange rate, trade openness were investigated in the long run and short run. Accordingly, the effect of external debt on economic growth was determined with the help of ARDL Bound Test. The data used in the study covers the period of 1970-2015. Acording to the findings, a long- term relationship was found between external debt and growth rate in Brazil. It was concluded that external debt had a negative effect on the economic growth. According to this result, it is thought that developing countries external borrowing, providing sustainable debt and converting debt into investments will increase the GDP.

Anahtar Kelimeler

External Debt, Economic Growth, ARDL Boundary Testing Approach

Brezilya’da Diş Borçların Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: ARDL Sinir Testi Yaklaşımı

Öz

Gelişmekte olan ülkeler için sürdürülebilir ekonomik büyüme kilit makroekonomik hedeflerden biridir. Ancak her ülkenin GSYH büyümesini destekleyecek kadar sermayesi yoktur. Ülkenin yeterli ulusal sermayesi olmasa bile, hükümet GSYH büyümesini desteklemek için bir miktar dış borç olarak borç alabilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Brezilya ekonomisindeki ekonomik büyüme ve dış borç arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir. Bu çalışmada, uzun ve kısa vadede dış borcun GSYH'ye oranı, borç hizmet stokunun GSYH'ye oranı, milli harcamaların GSYH'ye oranı, reel döviz kuru ve dışa açıklık değişkenlerin ekonomik büyümeye etkisi araştırılmıştır. Buna göre, dış borcun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi ARDL Sınır Testi yardımıyla belirlenmiştir. Araştırmada kullanılan veriler 1970-2015 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Bulgulara göre, Brezilya'da dış borç ile büyüme oranı arasında uzun vadeli bir ilişki bulunmuştur. Dış borcun ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif etkisi olduğu sonucuna varılmıştır. Bu sonuca göre, gelişmekte olan ülkelerin dış borçlanmasının, sürdürülebilir borç sağlanmasının ve borçların yatırımlara dönüştürülmesinin GSYH'yi artıracağı düşünülmektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Dış Borç, Ekonomik Büyüme, ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı, Brezilya

Kaynakça

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