Determination of the Stability of Ecological Footprint and its Subcomponents in Türkiye: Fourier KPSS Test

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 10 Sayı: 1, 77 - 89, 07.03.2025

İbrahim Karaaslan , Ayşegül Karadavut

Öz

Environmental sustainability plays a critical role in protecting the world's ecosystem. Human activities, significantly increasing greenhouse gas emissions, and the overuse of fossil fuels challenge the planet's capacity to regenerate itself. In this study, which aims to determine whether the ecological footprint and its sub-components are stationary in Türkiye, the data range of the survey includes the years 1961-2022 and consists of annual data. In this study, the Fourier KPSS test is used to determine the stationarity of ecological footprint and its sub-components, which are important indicators of environmental degradation. According to the results of the study conducted using the Fourier KPSS unit root test for the effectiveness of environmental policies implemented in Türkiye, it is concluded that the total ecological footprint, carbon footprint, cropland footprint, and build-up footprint variables are non-stationary. This result indicates that the shocks have a permanent effect on the variables and that the variables do not tend to return to their average after the shocks. Still, instead, the variables tend towards a new equilibrium point. Similarly, it shows that policies that affect the ecological footprint and some of its sub-components will have long-term and permanent effects. It is concluded that the fishing grounds footprint, forest products footprint, and grazing land footprint variables are stationary. This result implies that the impact of shocks on these variables is temporary.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sustainable Environment, Ecological Footprint, Fourier KPSS Test.

Türkiye'de Ekolojik Ayak İzi ve Alt Bileşenlerinin Durağanlığının Analizi: Fourier KPSS Testi

Öz

Çevresel sürdürülebilirlik, dünya ekosisteminin korunmasında kritik bir rol oynamaktadır. İnsan faaliyetleri, özellikle artan sera gazı emisyonları ve fosil yakıtların aşırı kullanımı, gezegenin kendini yenileyebilme kapasitesini zorlamaktadır. Türkiye’de ekolojik ayak izi ve alt bileşenlerinin durağan olup olmadıklarını tespit etmek amacıyla gerçekleştirilen çalışmada, çalışmanın veri aralığı 1961-2022 yıllarını içermekte ve yıllık verilerden oluşmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, çevre tahribatlarında önemli bir gösterge olan ekolojik ayak izi ve alt bileşenlerinin durağanlıklarının tespitinde Fourier KPSS testi kullanılmıştır. Türkiye’de uygulanan çevre politikalarının etkinliğine yönelik olarak Fourier KPSS birim kök testi kullanılarak gerçekleştirilen çalışmanın sonuçlarına göre, toplam ekolojik ayak izi, karbon ayak izi, tarım alanı ayak izi ve inşaat alanları ayak izi değişkenlerinin durağan olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonuç, değişkenler üzerinde şokların kalıcı bir etkiye sahip olduğu, değişkenlerin yaşanan şoklardan sonra ortalamasına geri dönme eğilimi göstermediği aksine değişkenlerin yeni bir denge noktasına doğru yöneldiği bilgisini vermektedir. Benzer şekilde, ekolojik ayak izi ve alt bileşenlerinden bazılarını etkileyen politikaların uzun vadeli ve kalıcı etkiler yaratacağını göstermektedir. Balıkçılık alanı ayak izi, orman ürünleri ayak izi ve otlak alanı ayak izi değişkenlerinin ise durağan olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonuçta, bu değişkenler üzerindeki şokların etkisinin geçici olduğu sonucunu vermektedir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Sürdürülebilir Çevre, Ekolojik Ayak İzi, Fourier KPSS Testi.

Kaynakça

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