Ulaşım Modellemesinin Evriminden Türel Ayrım Aşaması İçin Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2025, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 2, 148 - 182, 31.12.2025

Furkan Akdemir , Ebru Vesile Öcalır

Öz

Ulaşım modellemesi, insanların mevcut durumda olan, gelecekte olması beklenen, yolculuk aktivitesi ve tutumlarına dair tahmin yapmak için kullanılan stratejik bir ulaşım planlaması aracıdır. Bu çalışmada ulaşım modellemesi tekniklerinin tarihi süreç içinde geçirdiği değişimler açıklanmakta, modellemenin insan tercih tutumunu ölçme ve algılamaya yarayan tek aşaması olan türel ayrım aşaması derinlemesine incelenmektedir. Modelde gerçeğe daha yakın sonuçları elde etmek için gelecekte hazırlanacak çalışmalarda ne tür yeni değişkenlerin ve tekniklerin araştırma konusu olabileceği yorumlanmaktadır. Geçmişten günümüze modellemenin evrimi üzerine yapılan incelemelerde modelleme yaklaşımlarının toplu talep temsilinden bireysel talep temsiline doğru bir değişim geçirdiği görülmektedir. Yapılan karşılaştırma kapsamında ekonometrik yaklaşımların genellikle modelin temelini oluşturduğu görülmekle birlikte günümüzde ulaşım modelini sürdürülebilirlik ve mobilite gibi kavramların şekillendirdiği literatür taraması yardımıyla görülmüştür. Yine literatürden ulaşım türü tercihine etkisi irdelenen, günümüzde insanların ulaşım tutumunun şekillenmesinde etkili ve modern zaman ihtiyaçlarının bir etkisi olan konfor, kesintisiz iletişim hizmeti ve iklim gibi faktörlerin modellerin türel ayrım aşamasında yeteri kadar yansıtılmadığı vurgusuna ulaşılmıştır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Ulaşım Modelleme , Türel Ayrım , Bibliyometrik Analiz

Kaynakça

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