The Effects of Information and Communication Technologies on Labor Productivity and Employment in Turkiye: The ARDL Bounds Test Approach

Öz

Rapid improvements in the field of information and communication technologies have recently played an active role in the transformation of the international economic order and labor markets, with researchers having frequently discussed the effects of these technologies on macroeconomic indicators such as production, productivity, and employment in the literature. In this context, the purpose of this study is to contribute to investigating the effects of information and communication technologies on labor productivity and employment in Turkey. In order to achieve this aim, the econometric procedure of the  autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test approach was followed using data from Turkey for the period of 2001-2020. According to the empirical findings obtained from the analyses, the long-term effects of ICT use on both labor productivity and employment are statistically significant and negative. In addition, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was employed to identify the causality relationships between the variables included in the analyses. The results reveal a bidirectional causality relationship to exist between ICT use and labor productivity as well as between employment and labor productivity.

Türkiye’de Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojilerinin İşgücü Verimliliği ve İstihdam Üzerindeki Etkileri: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı

Öz

Son yıllarda bilgi ve iletişim teknolojileri alanında yaşanan hızlı gelişmeler, uluslararası ekonomik düzenin ve işgücü piyasalarının dönüşüm sürecinde etkin rol üstlenmektedir. Söz konusu teknolojilerin üretim, verimlilik, istihdam gibi makroekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki etkileri araştırmacılar tarafından literatürde sıklıkla tartışılır hale gelmiştir. Bu doğrultuda çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerinin işgücü verimliliği ve istihdam üzerindeki etkilerinin araştırılmasına katkıda bulunmaktır. Bu amacı gerçekleştirmek için, Türkiye’nin 2001-2020 dönemine ait verileri kullanılarak ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımına ait ekonometrik prosedür takip edilmiştir. Analizlerden elde edilen ampirik bulgulara göre, uzun dönemde BİT kullanımının hem işgücü verimliliği hem de istihdam üzerindeki etkileri istatistiki olarak anlamlı ve negatiftir. Diğer taraftan, analize dahil edilen değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerini tespit etmek için Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Ulaşılan sonuçlar, BİT kullanımı ve işgücü verimliliği arasındaki çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisine işaret etmektedir. Benzer durum, istihdam ve işgücü verimliliği arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi için de geçerlidir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojileri
• İşgücü Verimliliği
• ARDL Sınır Testi.

Kaynakça

1. Abramova, N. & Grishchenko, N. (2020). ICTs, labour productivity and employment: Sustainability in industries in Russia, Procedia Manufacturing, 43, 299-305. google scholar
2. Akarsu, Y., Kurt, S. & Alacahan, N.D. (2020). OECD ülkelerinde bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerinin işgücü verimliliği üzerindeki etkisi, Journal of Life Economics, 7(4), 309-322. google scholar
3. Alper, F. Ö. (2017). Bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerinin ekonomik büyüme ve işsizlik üzerine etkisi: Seçilmiş AB ülkeleri ve Türkiye örneği, Yasama Dergisi, 36, 45-65. google scholar
4. Aminu, A. & Raifu, I.A. (2019). ICT sector, output and employment generation in Nigeria: Inputoutput approach, MPRA Paper No. 92917. google scholar
5. Bertschek, I. & Kaiser, U. (2004). Productivity effects of organizational change: microeconometric evidence, Management Science, 50 (3), 394-404. google scholar
6. Biagi, F. & Falk, M. (2017). The impact of ICT and E-commerce on employment in Europe, Journal of Policy Modeling, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2016.12.004 google scholar
7. Brown, R.L., Durbin, J. & Evans, J.M. (1975). Techniques for testing the constancy of regression relations overtime. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 37(13), 149-163. google scholar
8. Brynjolfsson, E. & Hitt, L.M. (2003). Computing productivity: Firm-level evidence, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85 (4), 793-808. google scholar

9. Cardona, M., Kretschmer, T. & Strobel, T. (2013). ICT and productivity: conclusions from the empirical literature, Information Economics and Policy, 25, 109-125. google scholar
10. Castells, M. (2013). Enformasyon çağı: ekonomi, toplum ve kültür, Birinci Cilt: Ağ toplumunun yükselişi, İstanbul: İstanbul Kültür Üniversitesi Yayınları. google scholar
11. Ceccobelli, M., Gitto, S. & Mancuso, P. (2012). ICT capital and labour productivity growth: A nonparametric analysis of 14 OECD countries, Telecommunications Policy, 36, 282-292. google scholar
12. Colecchia, A. & Schreyer, P. (2002). ICT investment and economic growth in the 1990s: Is the United States a unique case? A comparative study of nine OECD countries, Review of Economic Dynamics, 5, 408-442. google scholar
13. Dickey, D.A. & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit. Econometrica, 49 (4), 1057-1072. google scholar
14. Engle, R.F. & Granger, C.W.J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing, Econometrica, 55, 251-76. google scholar
15. European Commission (2012). Exploiting the employment potential of ICTs, Commission Staff Working Document, Strasbourg. google scholar
16. Garcia-Murillo, M. (2016). The impact of ICTs on employment in Latin America: A call for comprehensive regulation, IBEI (Institut Barcelona d’Estudis Internacionals) Working Papers 2016/48, Barcelona. google scholar
17. Genç, M.C. & Tandoğan, D. (2015). Türkiye’de bilgi ve iletişim teknolojileri ve toplam faktör verimliliği ilişkisi: Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik yaklaşımı, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13 (2), 272-282. google scholar
18. Granger, C.W. & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120. google scholar
19. Gujarati, D. N. (2006). Temel Ekonometri. (Çev: Ümit Senesen, Gülay Günlük Senesen). İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık. google scholar
20. Haider, F., Kunst, R. & Wirl, F. (2021). Total factor productivity, its components and drivers, Empirica, 48, 283-327. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663-020-09476-4 google scholar
21. Herman, E. (2020). The influence of ICT sector on the Romanian labour market in the European context, Procedia Manufacturing, 46, 344-351. google scholar
22. Iammarino, S. & Josa-Lasinio, C. (2013). ICT production and labour productivity in the Italian regions, European Urban and Regional Studies, 1-20. google scholar
23. Johansen, S. & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum Likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration-with application to the demand for money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 169210. google scholar
24. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors, Journal of Economics Dynamic and Control, 12(2-3), 231-254. google scholar
25. Karagöl, B. & Erdil, E. (2012). Macroeconomic effects of information and communication technologies in Turkey and other OECD member countries, Science and Technology Policies Research Center, TEKPOL Working Paper Series STPS-WP-12/05 google scholar
26. Khan, H. & Santos, M. (2002). Contribution of ICT use to output and labour-productivity growth in Canada, Bank of Canada Working Paper 2002-7. google scholar
27. Kılıçaslan, Y. & Töngür, Ü. (2018). ICT and employment generation: evidence from Turkish manufacturing, Applied Economics Letters, DOI:10.1080/13504851.2018.1529391 google scholar
28. Koyuncu, J. Y., Yılmaz, R. & Yıldırım, S. (2017). Internet penetration and productivity: A panel study, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 17 (1), 59-66. google scholar
29. Lefophane, M. H. & Kalaba, M. (2021). Estimating effects of ICT intensity on productivity, employment and output in South Africa: an industry-level analysis, Information Technology for Development, DOI: 10.1080/02681102.2021.1882367. google scholar
30. Lovric, L. (2012). Information-communication technology impact on labor productivity growth of EU developing countries, Zb. rad. Ekon. fak. Rij, 30 (2), 223-245. google scholar
31. Maciulyté-Sniukiené, A. & Gaile-Sarkane, E. (2014). Impact of information and telecommunication technologies development on labour productivity, Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences, 110, 1271-1282. google scholar
32. Meçik, O. (2015). OECD ülkelerinde bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerinin işgücü verimliliği üzerindeki etkisi, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 13(1), 74-84. google scholar
33. Mike, F. & Laleh, M.M. (2016). Bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerinin istihdam üzerine etkisi: Seçili ülkeler üzerine bir uygulama, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 20 (2), 601-614. google scholar
34. Najarzadeh, R., Rahimzadeh, F. & Reed, M. (2014). Does the Internet increase labor productivity? Evidence from a cross-country dynamic panel, Journal of Policy Modeling, 36, 986-993. google scholar
35. OECD (2022). Labour Force Statistics, https://stats.oecd.org/ (15.01.2022) google scholar
36. Özsağır, A. (2013). Bilgi ekonomisi:Tanım-uygulamalar-örnekler, İstanbul: Seçkin Yayıncılık. google scholar
37. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, 289-326. google scholar
38. Phillips, P.C. &Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. google scholar
39. Relich, M. (2017). The impact of ICT on labor productivity in the EU, Information Technology for Development, DOI: 10.1080/02681102.2017.1336071 google scholar
40. Röller, L.H. & Waverman, L. (2001). Telecommunications infrastructure and economic development: A simultaneous approach, The American Economic Review, 91 (4), 909-923. google scholar
41. Seo, H.J. & Lee, Y.S. (2006). Contribution of information and communication technology to total factor productivity and externalities effects, Information Technology for Development, 12 (2), 159-173. google scholar
42. Sepehrdoust, H. & Khodaee, S. (2013). The impact of Information and communication technology on employment of selected OIC countries, African Journal of Business Management, 7(39), 4149-4154. google scholar
43. Serin, D. & İşcan, E. (2019). Bilgi ve iletişim teknolojilerinin verimlilik üzerine etkisi: Türkiye örneği, Verimlilik Dergisi, 3, 41-55. google scholar
44. Skorupinska, A.A. (2017). The role of information and telecommunication technologies in the productivity of the Central and Eastern European countries, Doctoral Programme in the Information and Knowledge Society, Internet Interdisciplinary Institute, Universitat Oberta de Catalunya. google scholar
45. Stiroh, K. J. (2002). Information technology and the U.S. productivity revival: What do the industry data say?, The American Economic Review, 92 (5), 1559-1576. google scholar
46. Timmer, M.P. & Ark, B.V. (2005). Does information and communication technology drive EU-US productivity growth differentials?, Oxford Economic Papers, 57, 693-716. google scholar
47. Toda, H. Y. & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes, Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225-250. google scholar
48. Trpeski, P., Trenovski, B., Merdzan, G. & Kozeski, K. (2021). The impact of ICT on labour productivity - Europe vs. U.S., SHS Web of Conferences, 129, https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/202112908021 google scholar
49. TÜBİSAD (2021). Bilgi ve İletişim Teknolojileri Sektörü 2020 Pazar Verileri, İnternet Adresi: https:// www.tubisad.org.tr/tr/images/pdf/tubisad_bit_2020_raporu_tr.pdf (01.03.2022) google scholar
50. UNDP (2022). Human Development Index, https://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi, 15.01.2022) google scholar
51. Ünlü, F. & Polat, G. (2022). Information and Communication Technologies Goods Exports, CO2 Emissions and Productivity: Empirical Evidence for MINT Countries, VI. International Conference on Economics May 13-15, 2022, Anadolu University, Eskişehir, Turkey. google scholar
52. World Bank (2022). World Development Indicators, https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators (15.01.2022) google scholar